After a decent run upwards by the EUR/USD pair, the time has come for some retracement. A perfect trade setup has been built up. Hopefully, my followers will get benefit out of this trade. The charts below are added for reference. EURUSD DAILY LINE CHART EURUSD DAILY CHARTEURUSD 4 HOURLY CHART...
The Fed released its July Monetary Policy Report which forms the basis of Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress next week, and while it does not traditionally discuss monetary policy, it does provide a snapshot of the Fed’s take of the economy and capital markets at any given moment. Here are some of the highlights courtesy of BBG: Federal Reserve says bond liquidity ample despite lower market-maker inventory, in monetary policy report in Washington. Fed sees little evidence of liquidity impairment in corp bonds Fed says financial markets recently performed well under stress Fed says financial system vulnerabilities stayed modest...
AUD/USD reversed directions last week and dropped 100 points. The pair closed at 0.7584. It’s a light week, with only three events on the calendar. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. There were no surprises from the RBA, which kept the benchmark rate at 1.50%. Australian Retail Sales softened to 0.6%, but still beat expectations. In the US, the Federal Reserve minutes pointed to division over the timing of the balance sheet reduction and concerns about low inflation. Updates: AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: NAB Business Confidence:...
It’s been a long time coming, but the week(s) of reckoning have finally come for CTAs and the risk parity crowd. Of course the “serious people” reading this will say the “day of reckoning” bit is hyperbolic. After all, we haven’t seen a sustained vol. spike of the sort that would probably be required to cause a truly painful unwind where “truly painful” means “something people who don’t know what CTAs and risk parity are” would notice. But the important thing about what we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks is that it illustrates the interplay between two of the most talked about systematic strategies and the delica...
Relief in the oil patch seems far-fetched. As if brimming U.S. supplies were not enough, oil prices received another blow from Russia. As per an article published on Bloomberg, Russia will likely disapprove any talks related to deepen the oil output cuts in the meeting slated on July 24 beyond the current limit effected by OPEC and some other oil producers (read: How to Trade Oil with ETFs After Surging U.S. Output). In the meeting, OPEC and other nonmembers will discuss on how to reduce global supply glut, as oil prices are still subdued despite the extension of the output cut deal in May thanks to huge U.S. shale output. Of late, several a...
Trading desks will be closer to normal staffing. Chair Yellen’s biannual Congressional testimony will be a feature on Wednesday and Thursday, but the economic calendar is light. With little going on, the punditry will be wondering: What should we expect for the rest of 2017? Last Week Recap The big economic news last week featured employment – as expected. The start of the G20 meetings and North Korean missile tests grabbed some headlines, but without much effect on stocks. The Story in One Chart I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short via Jill Mislinski. Despite the Thursday selling,...
No surge or purge worthy of drama finished this holiday-shortened week; but it was interesting in a few ways. First technically, as S&P remains above breakdown levels (barely approached twice in the past week) but not above resistance, which is the former support in the Sept. S&P 2030-40 zone. Second geopolitics; where there’s no clear plan to deal with North Korea; at the same time there is clear mutual interest in going forward with Russia, in at least several ways. Daily action did not dip before the expected (crucial) rebound; but simply moved up and then mostly sideways for the rest of the session. That’s fi...
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar was pressured last week when the Reserve Bank of Australia declined to turn hawkish No such obvious banner event looms in the coming week But there are plenty of likely market movers, from Australia, China and the US The Australian Dollar took a knock last week when its central bank just refused to play. Investors had hoped that the Reserve Bank of Australia might have joined other developed-market monetary authorities in suggesting that higher interest rates were coming. In the event it didn’t. Instead it left the Official Cash Rate at its 1.50% record low and gave no ...
In the Currency Strength table, the EUR was the strongest currency while the JPY was again the weakest. There were some changes last week with the GBP losing 3 points and the CHF gaining 2 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 1 point. There were a lot of classification changes last week and these are analyzed in more detail in this article. 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the “13 weeks Currency Classification” are considered for deciding on the preferr...
US regulators aren’t yet comfortable with bitcoin ETFs (although a quad-levered S&P ETF is just fine for mom and pop), but apparently options and swaps are another story. This week, the CFTC took a bold step forward in terms of granting institutional investors access to the bitcoin market, approving the creation of the first SEF or Swap Execution Facility. Previously, traders who wished to place bets in bitcoin derivatives markets were forced to operate in markets that were strictly OTC. But now the agency has issued a registration order to LedgerX, granting it status with the CFTC as a Swap Execution Facility, in the process appr...