Crude oil continued to sink despite a larger-than-expected weekly US inventory drawdown as output continued to surpass outflows. The EIA reported that US production rose to 9.34 million barrels per day last week, marking the biggest increase since January. From here, the spotlight turns to the World Petroleum Congress getting underway in Istanbul, Turkey. Sideline comments from a formidable roundup of industry bigwigs may prove market-moving if OPEC officials and their allies sound off on deeper output cut possibilities. Gold prices plunged as the US Dollar rose following the release of better-than-expected US labor-market data. The ...
Even though we don’t know precisely how the future will unfold, we know a few things: — Of the 7.5 billion humans on the planet, virtually every individual wants to enjoy a high-energy consumption “middle-class” lifestyle. As a generous estimate, 1.5 billion people enjoy a high-energy consumption lifestyle today; the remaining six billion are aspirants hungry for all the goodies enjoyed by the 1.5 billion—all goodies based on affordable, abundant energy. — Our dependence on debt to fuel growth—more extraction of resources, more energy, more manufacturing, more consumption and more earned income to pay for all this ex...
Asian equity markets are mixed today. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.68%, while the Hang Seng is up 0.96%. The Shanghai Composite is trading lower by 0.29%. The US stocks ended higher on US payrolls report that gave investors more confidence in the strength of the US economy. Meanwhile, share markets in India have opened the day on a strong note. The BSE Sensex is trading higher by 234 points, while the NSE Nifty is trading higher by 27 points. The BSE Mid Cap Index and BSE Small Cap index have opened the day up by 0.3% & 0.4% respectively. Price quotations for individual stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) are not g...
Crude Oil Vulnerable To Further Downside; Loonie & Pound Make Significant Moves In Sentiment ?Large speculators (non-commercials) in Japanese yen futures increase bearish bets for 3rd straight week, according to the latest CFTC IMM report through last Monday (July 3rd). ?Euro short reduction remains the theme, while British pound specs grow less pessimistic. ?Canadian dollar makes most significant (bullish) move in sentiment; Aussie (speculative) longs continue to ascend. ?Crude oil remains vulnerable to further downside; Gold pessimism grows as (non-commercial) net longs fall to lowest level since 2015. ?Nasdaq 100 futur...
There have been several articles recently proclaiming and detailing the fundamentals for gold. A few of them have some excellent points. Most of them don’t. And there have been some polite discussions of applicability, meaning, and intent with regards to specific claims. Some of the discussions involve protracted technical analysis and are quite lengthy. And some analysts have a special formula or barometer of their own, which they use to justify their claims or indicate correlation between gold and a wide variety of unrelated items. There are commonly accepted – sometimes erroneous – statements of fact and also convoluted...
HEADLINES: +222,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate rose +0.1% from 4.3% to 4.4% U6 underemployment rate rose +0.2% from 8.4% to 8.6% Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: down -130,000 from 5.561 million to 5.431 million Part time for economic reasons: up +107,000 from 5.219 million to 5.326 million Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: up +0.1% from 78.4% to 78.5% Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: up $.04 from $21.99,to $22.03, up +2.3% YoY.(Note: you may be reading different information about wage...
Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD: Bearish – The British Pound was one of the weaker currencies last week, hurt by weaker PMI and trade data. – The retail crowd remains net-short GBP/USD, but short positioning has shrunk significantly over the past week suggesting a turn may be nearing. The British Pound was one of the weaker performers in the FX space last week, losing ground to five of the seven major currencies as the calendar turned into the second half of the year. GBP/CAD was the worst performing GBP-cross, losing -1.74%, while GBP/JPY was the best performing GBP-cross, gaining +0.31%. With a lighter economic docket i...
Ok, well this should be an interesting week. We’ll get the BoC, which will make Bloomberg’s Luke Kawa happy because it means Canada will be in the spotlight for once. He’s got some fun Canada-themed socks we imagine he might wear on Wednesday. “The recent avalanche of hawkish messages from the BoC, as well as from central bankers of advanced economies around the world, indicate that a hike is highly likely,” BofAML wrote this evening. We’ll also get Yellen yellin’ on Capitol Hill, which always makes for riveting television. And then there’s CPI, which will obviously be scrutinized to death (especially in light of the lacklus...