It shouldn’t be too surprising that the XIV exchange-traded note – which is designed to deliver the inverse performance of the well-known CBOE Volatility Index (or the VIX) on a daily basis – is attracting fresh attention after surging as much as 87 percent this year. But, as CNBC notes, some caution that investing in the exchange-traded product now could be deeply risky. This could be “the most dangerous trade in the world,” according to macro strategist Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management. “It’s already had a massive runup because we’ve had very low volatility,” but at this poin...
Yesterday’s signals were probably not triggered as the bullish price action took place a little way below the support level identified at 1.1388. Today’s EUR/USD Signals Risk 0.75%. Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today. Long Trades Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1382 or 1.1295. Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride. Short Trade 1 Go sho...
Looking at the plain daily chart, we can observe the end of the one-time-framing lower behavior which occurred for several weeks as Friday’s high got taken out. A previous balance area seems to be supportive for now. Looking at the weekly volume profiles, we can identify a double distribution profile. The market opened inside of the lower acceptance area and traded inside of it. Let’s see how the market could possibly test the upper distribution. Let’s move forward to the daily volume profiles. We opened inside of Friday’s balanced range and value. In the end, the market broke out to the north and left us with a ‘...
We know it’s hard to believe, but we’ve closed out the first week of 3Q 2107. For some, it was a vacation week, for others like those of us here at Tematica it was a busy one. As much as we love a holiday, especially July 4th, the downside is compressing five days of trading, data and other information into what was essentially three days. It was a busy week from start to finish and ended with the market indices eking out a modest move higher, due primarily to Friday’s better than expected June Employment Report. You can’t continue to get all this job growth but there is no wage pressure. So something is not adding up at all,” JJ ...
When the recent General Election was first called, many people (MPs included) thought that the results were already a sure thing, with little chance of any upset. How misplaced their certainty proved to be when the performance of almost all major parties in the polls defied expectations, for better or worse. Significant losses for the Tories and SNP despite both parties’ confidence heading into the election, coupled with big gains for Labour that Corbyn critics had previously thought impossible meant May’s gamble to try and increase her majority and Sturgeon’s calls for another imminent independence referendum had failed. This arg...
So the VIX has flatlined. It’s been meandering along in a sideways direction for nearly four years. In fact, the four-year chart of the VIX looks like an electrocardiograph (EKG) of a recently diseased person. Sure, you’ll see an occasional blip. But not even a dead person has a ruler-straight EKG line. Sorry, folks — that long, continuous “flatline tone” when you die is mostly a Hollywood fabrication. I’m covering the VIX today because it was once a key contrarian indicator. Perhaps it’s time to announce this patient as dead, though. Let’s check the vitals… Also known as the “fear index,” the VIX measures the volatility...
After a big miss in April, when US consumer credit posted its smallest monthly increase in 6 years, resulting form a slump in demand for revolving credit, one month later things promptly reverted back to normal, and according to the Fed, in the month of May, total consumer credit rose by $18.4 billion, well above the $14.9 billion expected, and a solid jump from the upward revised April print of $12.9 billion. This was the biggest monthly jump in consumer credit of 2017, and the highest since last November’s increase of $25.1 billion. Broken down by components, revolving credit rose by $7.4 billion, also the highest monthly increase sin...
June 2017 ended the best quarter for dividends in the last three years. Before getting into the tally of dividend data for the month, let’s take a quick look at the number of publicly-traded U.S. companies that either increased or decreased their dividends in each month from January 2004 through June 2017 in the following chart. Let’s get into the numbers that S&P reported for June 2017 (Excel spreadsheet), which coincidentally also marks the end of the second quarter of 2017: 3,778 U.S. firms issued some kind of declaration regarding their dividends in June 2017, which is up from the 3,536 that did so in May 2017 and is also...
S&P 500 The S&P 500 initially fell on Monday but found enough support underneath to bounce and reach towards the 2430 level. The market looks likely to continue to grind to the upside, perhaps trying to reach towards the 2450 handle above. A break above that level would send this market to the 2500 level, which is my longer-term target. This market continues to be one that finds support every time it falls, so with this being the case, it’s likely that buyers will return repeatedly. Because of this, the market will probably be very volatile, but I still believe that the upward momentum and bullish pressure will continue. The 2400 le...
This post will use Weinsteins Stage Analysis to examine where we are in both Gold and the USD. For this analysis, I will use Weekly charts and highlight the Weekly 30ema as a guidepost for our analysis. First let’s start with a bit of History and go back to 1998 to 2002 to examine the transition in Gold and the HUI from Stage 4 Bear, to Stage 1 Basing to Stage 2 Bull Market. Fast forward to today and we can see that the 30ema seems to have found a bottom but in 2017, it seems to be a midpoint for price and is not yet providing strong support at major lows for either Gold or GDX. My last chart on GDX shows a potential Fractal. Will h...