Another week of choppy market action and the end result was a move to “nowhere.” As I stated previously, the current action is either a consolidation process or a topping process. To wit: “First of all, it is worth noting that despite all of the recent excitement of the markets advance, it remains extremely confined in a sideways trading range. This can either be good or bad news. The Good: Sideways consolidations during bullishly biased markets provides the ability to work off excesses built up during the previous advance to provide the “fuel” necessary for the next leg higher. The Bad: However, sideways consolidations can...
Despite maintaining an overbought condition and despite the recent bearish posture of many sector pundits, the gold stocks have yet to correct more than 11%. Since the end of January the gold stocks have held above their 50-day moving averages, which is often support during a strong trend. If the gold stocks break their lows of the past two weeks then it should usher in a 20% correction and correct the current overbought condition. However, if gold stocks do not break initial support they could begin a melt-up that would lead to a more serious correction in the summer. The chart below plots the three major rebounds in the HUI from the three m...
Retail sales jumped 1.3% in April following yesterday’s miserable stew of retail sales reports. Last evening ZeroHedge sarcastically tweeted After retailers reported abysmal earnings, it is only logical that tomorrow’s retail sales report will be a big beat — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2016 He was correct. For the second irony, the report was so good, that US treasuries rallied. The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate for retail sales was 0.9%. Sales jumped 1.3%. Highlights The consumer snapped back to life in April, driving retail sales 1.3 percent higher to beat Econoday’s consensus by 4 tenths and the high estimate by 1 t...
I could write a long, detailed post trying to encompass global stock markets (generally bearish), commodities (bounce very mature) and bonds (mixed views, depending upon the flavor) but that is what I get paid to do each weekend in NFTRH reports and in private posts at the site. The beauty of public posts is that I can write as much or as little as I feel like writing. Today I feel like writing a little about gold (and silver) and the stock market. I also feel like using daily charts because I think time frames are pinching in for upcoming pivotal moves. Gold is in a rather orderly Handle to a short-term Cup & Handle. Personally, I think ...
It is time for Crude Oil to get lucky and breakout? Below looks at Crude Oil Charts; one is based upon Log Scale, the other linear scale. Joe Friday, Just The Facts…. Both charts reflect that Crude Oil is testing key falling resistance. What Crude Oil does from here (Breakout or Breakdown) should have a large impact on many assets. Could the world/Commodities sector benefit from a breakout above falling resistance? Macro wise, we think so. This is a big test for one of the most important commodities on the planet. ...
Greetings, Let us begin with emerging markets. 1. South Africa’s mining production dropped by 18% from a year ago – a record decline. This report sent some analysts back to the drawing board, with growth projections downgraded again. h/t Jonathan 2. Romania and Poland remain in deflation. Will both see stabilization as energy prices move higher? Source: Investing.com 3. Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment is moving forward as Brazil’s interim President Michel Temer takes over. While many can point to Rousseff’s poor leadership and populist tactics, proving that her actions were criminal in nature may be challenging...
Shares of several department retailers dropped in morning trading after reporting quarterly sales declines, joining a collection of sector peers that are also experiencing sales weakness amid a difficult retail environment. NORDSTROM: After the market close yesterday, Nordstrom (JWN) reported Q1 EPS of 26c on revenue of $3.2B, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 46c and $3.28B, respectively. Same-store sales for the quarter fell 1.7% year-over-year, the company said. In addition, the retailer slashed its FY16 adjusted EPS guidance range to $2.50-$2.70 from $3.10-$3.35 and cut its revenue growth view for the year to 2.5%-4.5% from...
In the latest indication of contracting global growth, overnight Hong Kong reported that its Q1 GDP fell off a cliff 0.4% qoq, widly missing estimates of 0.1% growth as retail sales plummeted and the property market continued its collapse. On a y/y basis, the economy grew only 0.8% when compared to the same period last year, less than half the 1.9% y/y growth reflected in Q4. Hong Kong’s economy grew only 2.4% in 2015, half the pace of 2011, as a slowdown in mainland China and a weaker yuan curbed Chinese spending, while a volatile stock market also hit domestic consumption. “At least over the next five to six months, we don...