The short-term trend is up and this chart shows that there was some follow through today. However, despite the uptrend, this PMO index hasn’t started to move higher yet. I don’t like this. The Package Industry index is looking healthy. This index generally moves along with the economy and the broader market. So, when it points higher like this it favors higher stock prices. It looks a bit extended though… Bottom Line: The market indicators are mixed just as they have been for months. I am still nervous about this market, but I have no idea when the larger uptrend is finally going to crack and provide a significant correction...
On September 12, 1962, President John F. Kennedy gave a famous speech announcing the national goal of going to the moon by the end of the decade. (JFK’s speech on going to the moon.) In a memorable line, Kennedy said we would pursue the many elements of the space program “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” Our national philosophy now is “we do these things because they’re easy”– and relying on debt to pay today’s expenses is at the top of the list. What’s easier than tapping a line of credit to buy whatever you want or need? Nothing’s easier than borrowing mone...
Since we are this week hypocritically obsessing over monetary policy, particularly the federal funds rate end of it, it’s as good a time as any to review the full history of 21st century “conundrum.” Janet Yellen’s Fed has run itself afoul of the bond market, just as Alan Greenspan’s Fed did in the middle 2000’s. But that latter example wasn’t truly the first conundrum for monetary policy. There remain a great many questions (in the mainstream, anyway) about the dot-coms. If we define conundrum more broadly as I believe more appropriate, then it’s not just about UST yields long or short. It is instead the lack of (monetary) ...
“In truth, however, nothing is inevitable and very little is new. And tech is no more the root of the problem than are trade or globalization. Many of our most vaunted innovations are simply methods — electronic or otherwise — of pulling off some age-old profit-maximizing maneuver by new and unregulated means.” Thomas Frank “It is my purpose, as one who lived and acted in these days, first to show how easily the tragedy of the Second World War could have been prevented; how the malice of the wicked was reinforced by the weakness of the virtuous.” Winston S. Churchill, The Gathering Storm Here is some knowledge. Today wa...
Stocks creep higher today as the S&P 500 index is hanging onto the edge of the upper expected move for the week. Can stocks explode higher from here or will they remain within the expected move for the week? Watch tonight’s video to find out what will move the S&P tomorrow and how to hedge… Video Length – 00:08:37...
If you only look at daily charts you might be a SELLER too early. The daily chart for T is quite ugly as the slide below the 20 DMA and 50 DMA has continued. Long term oversold on daily chart. The weekly chart has T inside our long term bounce zone with 35.90 as the lower level. A close BELOW 35.90 is needed to exit longs. Long term oversold on weekly chart....
Bill Ackman had a famously bad time with Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which crashed from $263 to the single digits. Last March, having suffered terrible losses for his fund, Ackman “threw in the towel” and dumped his position, prompting even Gartman to chime in. So did the stock instantly soar higher? No, that would be a little too neat, wouldn’t it? The stock did indeed keep falling for a few more weeks, losing another 20% or so of its value, making Ackman looked like he at least salvaged something out of the mess. However, it soon found support on a trendline that I had pointed out went back nearly two decades… Looking more clo...
Really. Not a whole lot more to add about my dog’s just expression until something dramatic happens. We both seek excitement. Surely for her, excitement comes in the form of a treat or a walk. Yet I do not underestimate her commitment to the markets. After all, she sits faithfully by my side each day watching me trade, tweet and write. One thing for certain, should the Russell 2000 gap up beyond 143 and leave a runaway gap, I will jump from my chair. Bella will jump from her dog bed. She’ll think it’s about her. It might as well be. They say, “Every dog has its day.” With that in mind I wonder, “When will this protracted consolida...
Two days of gains have helped re-establish the bullish technical picture for tech indices, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. While the improvement was welcomed it didn’t come without a price. The Nasdaq broke through declining resistance but also left it itself wedged beneath the former rising channel. If there is a chance for shorts, then tomorrow could be it. The Nasdaq 100 has also touched on former channel support – now resistance – offering a chance for shorts to launch an attack. The Dow Jones continued its good form, albeit on a small gain as it shapes a bullish handle (off an earlier handle). While above the breakout resistan...