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Finance 0
EUR/USD: Price Sitting On The Balance Line
Previous: On Friday the 8th of September, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. After hitting a new high of 1.2092 in Asia, buyers started cashing in on their long positions during the European session. The rate first fell to 1.2036 (-56 pips). During the second wave of euro selling, it fell against the dollar to 1.2015 (-21 pips). The US dollar index closed up. It strengthened after a speech from FOMC member Dudley and after Congress’ decision to temporarily raise the government’s debt ceiling. Dudley stated that restoration works after hurricanes tend to lead to a rise in economic activity in the long term. US 10Y bond yields ha... -
Finance 0
Spaghetti Charts And The S&P 500’s Future In Week 1 Of September 2017
After the last two weeks of seeing so many spaghetti models that forecast the potential trajectory of hurricanes in the news, we can’t help but note that the forecasting charts that we show each week really represent a similar concept being applied to the future path of the S&P 500. Only for us, the difference between the alternative trajectories that the S&P 500 might follow comes down to how far into the future investors are collectively looking at any given point in time, where the base reference points that we’re projecting from are 13 months, 12 months and 1 month in the past. That would seem to be a pretty straight... -
Finance 0
Weekly Gold Forecast – Monday, Sept. 11
Gold prices settled at $1346.48 an ounce on Friday, rising nearly 1% over the course of the week, as safe-haven demand continued to lure investors into the market. The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealed that speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased their net-long positions in gold to 245298 contracts, from 231047 a week earlier. It seems that a shortfall of inflation from the Fed’s 2% target and concerns over economic slowdown caused by hurricanes in the U.S will continue to weigh on the greenback. From a chart perspective, trading above Ichimoku clouds (the weekly and the daily... -
Finance 0
Macro Mondays: GDP Per Capita
Welcome to another edition of Macro Mondays! Today I want to shift the focus globally and talk about determining how much wealth exists relative to the number of people in individual countries. This is meant to supplement our article a couple weeks ago on which countries possess the strongest economies: today we will talk about part of that overall measurement, which is GDP per capita.which countries possess the strongest economies To learn more about GDP per capita and other investing terms, please check out Investopedia’s website. What does ‘Per Capita’ mean? Per capita is a Latin term that translates into “by head,... -
Finance 0
US Equities – Are They Still In A Bull Market?
European investors investing in US equities are not happy. Since March 2017 their holdings are losing value measured in Euro: Source: Stockcharts.com While the S&P 500 (the lower panel of the chart) is still in its strong bull market, its equivalent measured in Euros is in its correction phase (the upper panel of the chart). Note that a similar situation was an early indication of a bear market in the USA in 2007: Source: Stockcharts.com Well, I am not saying that we are at the beginning of a bear market in the USA (it will never happen, by the way) now but caution is advised…... -
Finance 0
As A Flurry Of Activity Hits This Week, All Eyes Will Still Be On Apple
After a weekend that was filled with news and analysis surrounding the impact of Hurricane Irma, we’re doing our best to turn our attention to what’s going to be the focus on the trading week ahead. There is something distinctly unnerving seeing equity markets relatively calm when mother nature is tossing a whopping 4 apocalyptic-like disasters our way — Harvey, Irma, the earthquake in Mexico, and now Hurricane Jose. But then if the South Korean Kospi doesn’t care about North Korea rattling its nuclear sword, then we suppose the S&P 500 might not be terribly fussed about nature tossing a little Armageddon our way. Make no mistake,... -
Finance 0
Stock Bulls Shake Off Worries About Mounting Global Dangers
As expected, August brought more volatility. Early in the month, the large cap, mid cap, and small cap indices all set new all-time closing highs while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit an all-time low. But then tough resistance levels failed to yield, the expected late-summer volatility set in, and support levels were tested. Nevertheless, the intra-month swoon (3% on the S&P 500) turned into a buying opportunity for the bulls, and by month-end the S&P 500 managed to eke out a small gain, giving it five straight positive months. Then the market started the month of September with a particularly strong day to put those all-time high... -
Finance 0
Dollar Stabilizes Despite Irma
The U.S. dollar headed higher on Monday morning despite the potential damage from Hurricane Irma, as President Donald Trump put pressure on Congress to speed up his overhaul of the tax system, placing the urgency on the hurricane and its expected economic impact which can be tempered by the tax reforms. Traders are also questioning the possibility of a final interest rate hike in 2017 which may be delayed due to the economic havoc wrought by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in recent weeks.In their most recent project, Federal Reserve officers had hinted to an additional rate hike, but weak inflation data and recent economic challenges have called... -
Finance 0
2,000 Years Of Economic History In One Chart
ALL MAJOR POWERS COMPARED BY GDP FROM THE YEAR 1 AD Long before the invention of modern day maps or gunpowder, the planet’s major powers were already duking it out for economic and geopolitical supremacy. Today’s chart tells that story in the simplest terms possible. By showing the changing share of the global economy for each country from 1 AD until now, it compares economic productivity over a mind-boggling time period. Originally published in a research letter by Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan, we’ve updated it based on the most recent data and projections from the IMF. If you like, you can still find the original chart (which goes... -
Finance 0
FX Week Ahead: SNB, BoE Meetings. US Inflation Data Ahead
The central bank monetary policy decisions continue into another week. However, this time around it is quite likely that there will not be any surprises. On the agenda this week, the Swiss National Bank will be meeting for its quarterly monetary policy review. This is later followed by the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. Both the central banks are expected to hold interest rates steady and likely to stick to the old narrative. Compared to the BoC and the ECB meetings last week, the SNB and the BoE meetings are likely to be a non-event. On the economic front, the focus turns to inflation and retail sales reports fr...
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