EUR/USD Non-Commercials increased their net long positions in the Euro last week buying a further 9.8k contracts to take the total position to 96k contracts. This latest increase in buying strength came ahead of the ECB’s September meeting which was widely expected to see the bank announcing further QE tapering. Despite the high level of expectation, the ECB maintained policy and instead gave a signal that it is likely to announce tapering at the upcoming October meeting. The statement was mostly unchanged from the prior meeting, but there were revisions to the bank’s growth, and inflation forecasts with growth revised higher inflation do...
Year-to-date, over $32 billion has flowed into emerging market (EM) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S.1 As a consequence, EM equities, bonds, and foreign exchange (FX) markets are outperforming most developed markets by a sizeable margin. Despite a proliferation of choices over the last several years, WisdomTree continues to advocate a multi-asset approach to EM. Below, we contrast the various risks and drivers of return for EM FX, equities, and the fixed income market.2 How Much Risk (Volatility)? One of the more puzzling issues for global investors is the general lack of volatility across major asset classes. Emerging markets are n...
With the 10Y nearly touching a 1-handle ahead of this weekend’s battery of potential risk-off events, none of which however materialized in their worst-case outcome, many are once again calling for a bottom on yields, especially as net spec shorts rose over the past week according to the latest CFTC COT data. And yet, not everyone is convinced that “this time is different.” As Bloomberg macro commentator Wes Goodman writes overnight, “after the U.S. 10-year yield fell to just above 2%, what’s next? It’d be easy to say it should snap back to a range of 2.3% to 2.5%, especially after it jumped at Monday’s open. But...
It’s all green screens out there early on as the relief rally gathered steam in the overnight. Bottom line: Hurricane Irma wasn’t as catastrophic as feared and North Korea decided maybe it wasn’t a fantastic idea to launch another missile ahead of a new sanctions vote in the Security Council where it still enjoys the support of Moscow and Beijing. And so, it was time to dump havens in favor of risk. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose for the first time in eight days, snapping its longest losing streak in more than six years, while the yen was under pressure: The combination of a weaker yen and no missiles flying overhead catalyzed a solid...
When you’re evaluating most new stocks, it makes good sense to look at technical indicators – such as price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), profit margins, or revenue per share, to name a couple – so you know what you’re buying. But here’s the rub. When you’re scouting a promising biotech stock, the indicators I mentioned just won’t tell you what you need to know. Of course, we’re dealing with a sector that can hand out uncommonly large profits, so our approach needs to be a little different. Weigh these before you take your next biotech position, and you’ll enjoy much bigger potential profits and lo...
Barclays analyst Jay Gelb notes initial indications are Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida could result in insured losses of up to $60B. Irma will likely be the largest storm to ever impact the U.S., although not as bad as if Miami suffered a direct hit, Gelb tells investors in a research note on the insurance space titled “Devastating Irma Impact on Insurers, But It Could Have Been Worse.” All in, Irma and Harvey insured losses are expected to exceed $100B, Gelb points out. He believes the re-insurance stocks could suffer from near-term uncertainty regarding the extent of losses. Of the names he covers, the analyst expects ...
Recently, Ryan Vlastelica penned a column suggesting investors should simply be “apathetic” when it comes to their money. “Apathy doesn’t sound like a sensible investment philosophy, but it may be one of the most successful approaches a person can employ to grow wealth.” Listen. I get it. You can’t beat the market, so just “buy and hold.” Over a long enough period, I agree, you will make money. But, simply making money is not the point of investing. We invest to ensure our current “hard earned savings” adjust over time to provide the same purchasing power parity in the future. If we “lose” capital along the w...
Top 5 Things to Know Before You Start Trading #1 Risk sentiment on Asian equity markets is clearly positive this morning. The damage of Hurricane Irma is very substantial, but markets apparently assume that the impact on the US economy is manageable. The tensions between the US and North Korea remain in the headlines as the US called for a new UN vote on tougher sanctions against North Korea. #2 As a result, stock markets opened higher in Asia and in Europe this morning and the USD selloff eased. EUR/USD last week set a minor new correction top at 1.2092. A return below 1.1823 would be a technical sign that the EUR/USD rally has run its cou...
And we’re back at all time highs. With traders paring back risk positions on Friday ahead of a weekend full of potential risk events, Monday has seen a global “risk-on” session in which global stocks rose back to record highs and US futures jumped, the dollar gained, Treasuries retreated, while VIX and dollar slumped as appetite for risk returned to global markets after North Korean failed to conduct an anticipated missile test failed to materialize and Hurricane Irma appears to have struck the U.S. with less force than feared. The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 0.3% to the highest on record with the largest climb in...
After opening the day in green, share markets in India continued the uptrend and are trading in green. Sectoral indices are trading on a positive note with stocks in the capital goods sector and stocks in the power sector leading the gains. The BSE Sensex is trading up by 210 points (up 0.7%), and the NSE Nifty breached the 10,000 mark, and is trading up by 74 points (up 0.7%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.9%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.8%. The rupee is trading at 63.94 to the US$. In news from stocks in the banking sector. IndusInd Bank share price is in focus today after the bank...