Whenever I tell people the next big crisis will come from inflation, not deflation, the looks of disgust are worse than when someone says Justin Bieber’s music is not that bad. And when I try to tell them that the true bubble is in fixed income, not stocks, they look at me as if I just slipped the Biebs into the next-up slot on the Spotify playlist. “Where will the growth come from?” they often ask or, “demographics will keep inflation subdued for another generation,” they retort. And I must admit, I have always had difficulty articulating how inflation would manifest. Usually, I would go with the classic, “throughout the millen...
Already in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, the market is looking ahead to the road to normal. Already the focus in oil seems to be shifting away from demand destruction to the surge in demand we will get when we start to rebuild. U.S. refineries are coming back on line from Hurricane Harvey to only 6% off line, down from over 25% after the storm. Early reports say that Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida was not as bad as it could have been and so the market can look ahead. Natural gas demand may take the biggest hit as Hurricane Irma knocked out power to more than 3 million homes and businesses and Reuters reports that full restoration of ...
Crypto-currencies are an entirely imaginary form of money, dreamed up by pimply nerds in basements. Or so it seemed. Yet examine the algorithms behind some of the better crypto-currencies, and look in contrast at the monetary policies that have devastated the last decade. You will recognize two things. First, fiat money is fiat money, whether or not it has a government stamp on it. And second, the best crypto-currencies, considered as a store of value, are much more solidly designed than the world’s major conventional currencies. The long-term implications of this for our economy are troubling, to say the least. We must establish first what...
Video length: 00:08:10 Having been out of the office for the past week on annual leave, it always piques my interest to return to markets after an extended period away. Unfortunately for the US Dollar, nothing significant has changed over the past 10 days: the can was kicked down the road on the US debt limit; the ECB still hasn’t admonished the Euro’s rise; and ultimately, US Treasury yields have continued to press lower. Developments around the Federal Reserve, lack of progress on fiscal reform by the Trump administration, and elevated tensions with North Korea have all boosted the appeal of US Treasuries, which have sent US yi...
Indian share markets continued to trade strong in the afternoon session amid strong global markets. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed higher by 195 points and the NSE Nifty finished up 71 points. The S&P BSE Mid Cap finished up by 0.7% while & S&P BSE Small Cap too finished up by 0.8%. Gains were largely seen in capital goods stocks, power stocks and bank stocks. IndusInd Bank share price and Bharat Financial Inclusion Ltd share price surged 5.1% and 3.3% after it was reported that the companies signed a confidentiality agreement for the proposed merger between them. Reportedly, Bharat Financial will be ru...
Briefly: Intraday trade: Our Friday’s neutral intraday outlook has proved accurate. The S&P 500 index continued to fluctuate within its week-long trading range. The broad stock market is likely to open much higher today following futures contract rally after an overnight gap-up opening. We can see some short-term technical overbought conditions. Therefore, intraday short position is favored. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,490, close to early August record high. Potential profit target is at 2,455 (S&P 500 index). Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish, as we expect downward correction. Our med...
The Bank of Canada’s hawkish hike has sent the loonie skyrocketing. What’s next? Here is the view from TD: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: TD FX Strategy Research notes that the BoC surprised the market consensus at its September meeting hiking the policy rate another 25bp. The Bank has now removed the insurance cuts and the outlook shifts to the potential for normalization…The OIS market is already priced at 40% for Oct and 60% for Dec, so we think another round of decent data will offer support for another hike before year-end. This backdrop favors more CAD outperformance, in particular against the likes of NZD, which argu...
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.47%) this morning are up +0.55% at a 1-week high and European stocks are up sharply by +1.18% at a 3-week high after the impact of Hurricane Irma is smaller than initially feared and as North Korean tensions eased after it did not conduct a missile test over the weekend. Strength in energy stocks is also giving stock indexes a boost with Oct WTI crude oil (CLV17 +0.57%) up +0.74% after Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said it is open to the extension of OPEC crude production cuts “beyond the first quarter, if needed.” Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan ...
Last week Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer announced that he will leave the board of governors next month for personal reasons and eight months before his term was to expire. The timing opens up an unprecedented fourth vacancy on the Fed board of governors. In addition, Chair Janet Yellen may not be reappointed when her term ends in February based on her stated aversion to rolling back financial-crisis-instigated bank regulations. This could open up 5 of 7 governor seats to be filled by new Trump picks in 2018: a record amount of members in flux at one time. See: Trump handed rare opportunity to reshape Federal Reserve. Trump will probably end...