Early this year the Bank of Canada was unsure about the future path of Canadian economy; accordingly, it announced no change in its rate policy all winter and spring. Suddenly, in August the Bank announced a rate hike of ¼% and followed up with a similar hike in September. This abrupt shift in outlook and policy caught many market participants off guard. Did the Bank see something that most observers missed? Why the sudden shift in gears? What the Bank saw was evident to everyone; it was just how the Bank interpreted the economic data that is open to question. The first half of 2017 the economy grew at annualized rate of 4% (Figure 1). But t...
Former trader and current man who had a whole weekend to find something one of colleagues wrote to disagree with, Richard Breslow, is out with his latest daily missive and unsurprisingly, he thinks you still don’t get it. What is it he thinks you don’t get? Well generally speaking, you don’t seem to get much of anything as far as Richard is concerned, but as far as today’s piece goes, Breslow thinks maybe you should stop worrying so much about the next central bank meeting and focus a little more on “squeezing the juice” out of whatever’s working right now. You might recall that last week, Cameron Crise wrote a short piece on ...
This is not an opine on the consideration of climate change, but perhaps it should be. In the midst of Harvey, Irma, Jose, and maybe more, I’d like to focus on the measurable (and the immeasurable) economic impacts that these storms are having on the US. In a nutshell, hurricanes cost billions of dollars. In particular, they result in property damage, infrastructure destruction, lost wages, lost revenues, lost trade revenues, and human lives…to name a few. While the economic impacts (just in terms of property damage) from Hurricane Harvey will likely fall somewhere between $40-$50 billion, and are only a fraction of the $160 bi...
Posted New High Last Week While the S&P 500 struggled last week, NYSE New Highs – New Lows quietly said “be open to a rally in stocks” by making a new high on Wednesday, September 6 (see chart below). The S&P 500 followed on Monday, September 11, 2017 with a new all-time closing high (bottom portion of chart below). NYSE New Highs – New Lows also posted a new closing high on September 11. What Can Hurricane Tracking Methods Tell Us About Stock Market Risk? There are numerous similarities between the methods used to track hurricanes and those used to build/maintain probabilistic investment models. What can we learn from...
Asian shares hit 10-year highs on Tuesday and the U.S. dollar headed higher as the damage from Hurricane Irma proved to be far less than expected.The hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm on Monday and though it knocked out the power for millions of Florida residents, the damage to property and infrastructure was not as devastating as predicted. On Wall Street on Monday, the S&P 500 closed at a record high of 2,488, up over 1 percent, and Asian shares were eager to follow suit on Tuesday morning. The Shanghai composite was up 0.07 percent as of 12:31 p.m. HK/SIN, and South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.15 percent.Australia’s ASX 200...
After opening the day firm, stock markets in India maintained their tempo. Sectoral indices are trading on a positive note with stocks in the realty sector and oil & gas sector witnessing maximum buying interest. The BSE Sensex is trading up 175 points (up 0.6%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 49 points (up 0.5%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.7%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.9%. The rupee is trading at 63.97 to the US$. Transport minister Nitin Gadkari said that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is exploring a plan to raise Rs 10 trillion from retirees and provident fund benefi...
Summary • Bitcoin forms potential Head and Shoulders Top at resistance of Fibonacci confluence • Breakdown likely leads to a -29% or greater correction Bitcoin (BTC/USD) topped out at $4,979.90 last week before moving into a retracement that has so far seen a decline of as much as -19.6%, as of last week’s $4,001.93 low. That percentage decline approximately matches the previous two retracements, which were -19.6% and -18.3% respectively. This likely means that if Bitcoin falls below $4,001.93 support with conviction it is heading lower. Prior Retracements We can see on the enclosed chart that each of the four corrections occurring ...
Gold prices plunged as a market-wide recovery in risk appetite sent capital flows pouring out of the safety of Treasury bonds, pushing yields upward alongside shares. The chipper mood likewise echoed in Fed rate hike expectations, with the priced-in 2017 policy path steepening and sending the US Dollar upward. Not surprisingly, this undermined the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. Looking ahead, UK CPI data is expected to see the headline on-year inflation rate rising to 2.8 percent in August, a hair below the four-year high of 2.9 percent set in May. While markets are not expecting the BOE to raise rates this year, pr...
Gold prices ended Monday’s session down $9.25 as investors continued to cash in profits from a recent rally that pushed the market to the highest level in a year. The reduced anxiety in the marketplace and the rallying world stock markets have put downside price pressure on the safe-haven gold market. XAU/USD is trading at $1324.93, lower than the opening price of $1327.61. The short-term outlook turned negative as yesterday’s downside gap dragged prices below the Ichimoku clouds on the H1 chart. XAU/USD is currently trading below the clouds on the M30 and the H1 time frames; plus we have negatively aligned Tenkan-sen (nine-period moving ...
Stock markets across Asia are mostly trading in green after a strong rally on Wall Street in overnight trade. The Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 0.98%. The China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.04% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is trading with marginal losses. The US stocks started the week on a positive note and ended the session with solid gains with the benchmark S&P 500 ending the session at an all-time high. Back home, share markets in India have opened the day on a positive note tracking Asian peers. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief as North Korean fears eased slightly. The BSE Sensex is trading higher by 122 p...