In the aftermath of WWII the American economy was that shining city on a hill. After saving mankind from the Nazi’s, America had the only intact manufacturing base and was the repository for most of the world’s gold. Those circumstances propelled the US dollar to world’s reserve currency status. And for the past seventy years, this status has been the cornerstone for America’s power base and hegemony around the globe. But the 1960’s ushered in a time of great fiscal mismanagement. President Johnson’s dual wars on poverty and Vietnam led to worldwide distrust about the greenback’s purchasing power in relationship to gold. This ...
Shares of Exelixis (EXEL) jumped in early trading after the biopharmaceutical company said it received priority review from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a treatment for advanced renal cell carcinoma. Separately, the company said a global Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint of overall survival. FDA PRIORITY REVIEW: Exelixis announced this morning that it has won priority review status from the FDA for its supplemental new drug application for a treatment for advanced renal cell carcinoma. The biotech company said its sNDA is based on results of data from Cabosun, a phase 2 trial of Cabometyx geared towards patients with previou...
As many of you know, copper is often seen as an indicator of economic health, historically falling when overall manufacturing and construction is in contraction mode, rising in times of expansion. That appears to be the case today. Currently trading above $3 a pound, “Doctor Copper” is up close to 28 percent year-to-date and far outperforming its five-year average from 2012 to 2016. Several factors are driving the price of the red metal right now. Manufacturing activity, as measured by the purchasing manager’s index (PMI), is expanding at a pace we haven’t seen in years in the U.S., eurozone, and China. The U.S. expanded for the 100th...
The big banks kicked off earnings season on a fairly high note when they reported last week, with JPMorgan and Bank of America beating on both the top and the bottom line, Citi only beating on the top line, while Wells Fargo missed on both. Overall the Estimize community is expecting another strong earnings season, but a pull back from the first half of the year. S&P 500 EPS is anticipated to grow 4.2% from the year ago quarter, a deceleration from last quarter’s 10.2%. Revenues are expected to grow 6%, up slightly from 5.2% in Q2. In a near repeat of last quarter, winning sectors once again include Energy and Technology, while Consumer...
We have seen today’s economics in action before. Not in the 1720 South Sea Bubble – that was a simple stock market frenzy, similar to that of 1999, with a debt conversion scheme buried in it, but no excessive leverage. However, the almost exactly contemporary Mississippi Company/ Banque Royale scheme, devised in Paris by the Scots financier John Law – that, truly, bears a hideous resemblance to today’s markets, sparked off by a very similar monetary policy. Its collapse and the denouement thereof is also instructive. In an era of Keynesian economic manipulation, John Law (1671-1729) has been rehabilitated as an “economist,” the fa...
Retail continues to perform nicely for the one bear left on this entire planet. Chico’s, for instance – – purveyor of threads to women of a certain age – – is the gift that keeps on giving. And, in more of a macro play, the sole bear left on earth is also short DDR, which is in the not-so-certain business of commercial real estate for shopping malls. Bombs away, baby. ...
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis in 15 Minutes chart Bullish trend is present in EUR/USD currency pair, 15 minutes chart. As I have suggested via my Elliott Wave Analysis few hours ago, during my daily Forex Live Trading Room session, the price of EUR/USD currency pair is going to rise up now on a short-term basis to create a Bullish Impulse Elliott wave pattern and Spot Forex traders should consider taking a possible buy trading chance. Strong key support level is present at 1.1779 price level which is the originating point of Bullish Impulse wave i leg. In my opinion, price action in EUR/USD currency pair has not completed bullish wave iii imp...
I would like more price action from this market, but I can’t force that. I have to wait for that to happen, and to place my trades accordingly. Right now, I don’t want to add additional long exposure, until this market can put together a decent breakout to the upside. Indicators VIX – Not surprising to see it take a hit, since volatility was completely absent from the market on Friday. T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day moving average): Dropped a small amount to 72%. Some profit taking of late, but nothing major. Moving averages (SPX): 5-day moving average has flat lined, while all the other MA’s are...
For nervous investors with a fear of heights, the words of Jesse Livermore echo through the trading ages, as he exhorted fellow traders that a stock was never too high to buy or too low to sell. And the former is of course the more appropriate here, as the YM e-mini futures reflecting the cash markets, continue to extend ever higher into the rarefied atmosphere of new high ground. For those who trade or invest with an opinion, this is all too much as the market should NOT be continuing in this way, and the ‘big short’ should now be well underway. What these traders and investors think is irrelevant. The facts are that equities look set to...
Never go into business with friends. We’ve all heard it before – this snippet of advice has been uttered countless times, given in grave tones that allude to apocalyptic scenarios. And with good reason. Yet that doesn’t stop some from attempting to make it work. When childhood buddies or newfound social allies decide to work together, they either create a whole new entity to be built from the ground up, or else one employs the other. For the former, grandiose visions are often at play – late night rambling turns into strategisation, investment and fruition. For the latter, a chance to help out a friend is frequently deemed important e...