Latest Posts

  • Finance 0

    What Else Needs To Be Said? Why It Will Continue, Cont’d

    If the essence of modern eurodollar money is bank balance sheet capacity, then we need not wonder what has gone wrong or why. The very heart of this global currency system no longer beats so healthy and strong. Global banks shrink rather than expand at a breakneck pace, their desire to do the latter restrained by the incapacity of the system to manage what’s left. In very general terms, it is really simple; banks that can’t make money in this money aren’t going to make their balance sheet capacity available to others. Since the system is incestuous in this crucial respect, it becomes merely self-reinforcing. Contraction here means non-...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    “This Is The Catalyst For Everything”: Deutsche Sees Only Two More Rate Hikes Before The Fed Loses Control

    In his latest weekend note, One River CIO Eric Peters discussed, among other topics, what he thought would be the nightmare scenario if not for the current, then certainly next Fed chairman: a world in which despite the Fed’s best intentions (and we use the term loosely), the Fed continued to hike rates without any perceptible increase in wages and thus, long-term inflation expectations. The result would be a failure to raise bond yields, which would provide further ammo for stocks to keep rising ever higher into what even the Fed tacitly admits is increasingly an asset bubble. This is how Peters described the ominous dynamic that wou...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Sensex Open Flat; Realty & Metal Stocks Top Losers

    Asian stock markets are higher today as Japanese and Hong Kong shares show gains. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.03% while the Hang Seng is up 0.16%. The Shanghai Composite is trading up by 0.02%. On Wall Street, all the three major indices once again climbed to new record closing highs as market participants looked ahead to key corporate earnings reports. Back home, share markets in India have opened the day on a flattish note with a negative bias. The BSE Sensex is trading lower by 10 points while the NSE Nifty is trading lower by 3 points. The BSE Mid Cap and BSE Small Cap index opened the day up by 0.2% & 0.3% respectively. Sec...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis – Tuesday, October 17

    EUR/USD is facing 1.1780 support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the short term uptrend from 1.1669 had completed at 1.1879 already, then the following downtrend could bring price back to test 1.1662 key support. On the upside, as long as the price is above 1.1780, the fall from 1.1879 would possibly be consolidation of the uptrend from 1.1669, another rise towards 1.2029 resistance is still possible after the consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.1825, followed by 1.1879, above these levels could signal resumption of the uptrend....
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Retail Sales Rebound: 4 ETF & Stock Picks

    The boons of Hurricane Harvey started being felt slowly as evident from the biggest increase in retail sales in the month of September since March 2015. Sales increased 1.6% sequentially in September 2017, slightly below market expectations of a 1.7% but rebounding from a biggest increase decline in August. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 4.4% following 3.2% gains recorded in August. Some analysts expected this rebound following subdued sales in the last two months. Hurricane Harvey flooded Texas at August-end and Irma demolished Florida in early September. So, purchase of new cars, higher replacement demand and a pickup in ...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    GBP/USD Is Becoming Complicated, Like Brexit Negotiations

    The pound is becoming quite tricky to trade, says NAB, as Brexit negotiations look complicated as well, as analyzed by BofAML. What’s next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: GBP/USD: ‘Extremely Unlikely’ To Achieve Progress Before Article 50 Deadline – BofAML Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that Brexit headlines continue to add headline risks for GBP after another round of Brexit negotiations ended last week without progress, and ahead of the European Commission announcement on October 19 on whether discussions on trade can start. “The current pace of the discussions makes it extremely unlikely, in o...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    British Pound’s Flash Crash: One Year Later

    Last October, the British pound experienced a mysterious flash crash that wiped 10% from its value. This included a more than 6% drop in the span of two minutes, bringing sterling to its lowest level in 31 years. Baffled by what transpired, market participants have given several theories about what caused the dramatic drop. Rogue computer trades, an accidental “fat finger” and harsh comments from French President Francois Hollande on Brexit negotiations were all blamed. A few months later, the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) found there was no single trigger for the colossal drop. The flash crash wasn’t a “new phenomenon,”...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Market In The Hands Of A Balloon Twister

    People who create balloon animals are called Twisters. To attract attention, twisters appear clown-like, dressing in bold colors. Some twisters inflate their balloons with their own lungs. However, many use a pump. When I think of the market and its main influencers, I cannot help but think “clownish twisters.” Each day, the influencers fill the news with acts that shock some and delight others. The influencers, for the most part, inflate news with their own lungs. Some, however, resort to pumping. The litany of balloon animal’s twisted today includes, A strong NY Empire State Manufacturing Index-best since 2009. Shipments, employment a...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Time For A Crude Oil Correction?

    One of my favorite market calls comes from seeing an alignment between my Dynamic Cycle Analysis (DCA), my proprietary turn dates (FDates), and a couple of standard technical indicators used by many technical traders (MACD, Stochastic, %R, etc.). But there are times when the DCA is pointing to a likely change of direction in a market, supported by the FDates, but the standard technical indicators have not come to the table just yet.  It is times like this that, based on years of watching the markets more than not follow the cycles and turn dates over standard indicators that I have to make the tough call. Such a situation is once again upon ...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Fed Speculation Keeps Dollar Steady

    Speculation that U.S. President Donald Trump will appoint a hawkish head of the Federal Reserve when current Chair Janet Yellen’s term expires kept the dollar steady on Tuesday morning. On Monday reports indicated that Trump is favoring Stanford economist John Taylor, a respected policy hawk who had previously been thought to be lower down on the list of candidates. The dollar was unchanged against the yen as of 1:30 p.m. HK/SIN, but was up against several other trading partners including the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Swiss franc. The dollar was also up against the euro, trading at $1.1776. Nevertheless, Shin Kadota, a senior ...
    On October 17, 2017 / By