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  • Finance 0

    The Distribution Of Returns The Randomness Embedded In Them

    As traders, one of the most important traits we can adopt is humility. We have to embrace our fallibility. Markets are complex systems. We cannot know all the relevant variables and causal relationships. Therefore, when we make a market prediction or place a trade, we can’t truly know if the subsequent outcome occurred for the reasons we believed, for reasons we’re unaware of, or if it was all just random noise. This presents us with a dilemma: We must act on incomplete information and then iterate off results where we can’t fully know the causes. So we never really know if we were right for the right reasons, right for the wrong rea...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Above The 40 – A Quiet Bearish Divergence Out Of Overbought Territory

    AT40 = 69.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended 12 straight days overboughtAT200 = 59.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 9.9Short-term Trading Call: bullish (see caveats below) Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), slipped below the overbought threshold at 70%. The overbought period ended at 12 days. Yet, the trading action in general did not confirm the bearish implications of this drop. The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq printed a new marginal all-time high. Largely thanks to Apple (AAPL)...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Snaps Six-Day Winning Streak

    Gold prices moved lower on Monday as the dollar clawed back some of its recent losses. In economic news, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that manufacturing activity in the region jumped to 30.2 from 24.4 a month earlier. The XAU/USD pair is currently trading at $1294.15, slightly lower than the opening price of $1295.19. Gold has rebounded nearly 2.7% since hitting a two-month low of $1260.51 on October 6. XAU/USD was unable to hold above the strategic $1302-$1300 area and as a result, prices headed back to $1292-$1289 as anticipated. Although the market found support in this area, it might be in danger unless prices get back ab...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    U.S. Bancorp (USB) To Report Q3 Earnings: What’s In Store?

    U.S. Bancorp (USB – Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2017 results on Oct 18, before the opening bell. The bank’s revenues and earnings are anticipated to be up year over year. Why a Likely Positive Surprise? Our proven model shows that U.S. Bancorp is likely to beat on earnings in the third quarter. This is because the company has the combination of the two key ingredients for a possible earnings beat — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or at least 3 (Hold). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Zacks ESP: The Ear...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    USDCAD Daily Analysis – Tuesday, Oct. 17

    USDCAD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.2433 and 1.2598. A breakdown below 1.2433 will confirm that the upside movement from 1.2061 had completed at 1.2598 already, then the pair would find next support at 1.2300, followed by 1.2061. On the upside, a breakout of 1.2598 resistance will indicate that the uptrend has resumed, then another rise towards 1.2750 could be seen....
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Builds ABC Zigzag In Expanded Wave 4

    EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD has made a bearish bounce away from the resistance trend line (orange) which therefore makes a bullish ABC (purple) zigzag within a wave X (pink) correction more likely in an ongoing and extended wave 4 (light purple). 1 hour The EUR/USD is building an ABC (blue) correction within the larger wave B (purple). The Fibonacci levels could act as support levels for a bullish bounce but a break below the 100% Fib would invalidate that. GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD offers two main scenarios where either a bearish ABC (green) or a wave 123 (green) is taking place. Price invalidates that wave 4 (orange) correction if price bre...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – Tuesday, Oct. 17

    S&P 500 The S&P 500 rallied during the day after initially falling on Monday, showing signs of support at the 2550 level. I believe that the uptrend continues in this market, and we will continue to gain as earnings season should give us plenty of reason to go back into the stock market. I believe that the 2540 handle underneath continues to be massively supportive, and I think that although we are overbought, the time we dip people will be looking at this as value just waiting to happen. That being said, expect quite a bit of noise in this market, but longer-term I think that we will continue to find reasons to go long. I believe tha...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    UK Inflation Hits 3% As Expected – GBP/USD Slides

    Headline inflation comes at 3%, as expected. Core inflation also meets the early forecasts and stands at 2.7%. The RPI slightly missed expectations and remained at 3.9%. The House Price Index also fell short of projections and stands at 5% y/y. PPI Input rose by only 0.4% m/m, below expectations. All in all, the main figures came out as expected and some second-tier numbers missed.  GBP/USD was moving upwards ahead of the publication and is now reversing these gains, all within the range. The UK was expected to report yet another rise in the annual level of inflation: from 2.9% in August to the round 3% level in September. The Bank of Engla...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Why Has 3D Systems Been Taking A Beating?

    Well, it appears to be HP’s fault. 3D Systems (DDD) took a good hit during the last 2 trading days. There aren’t many explanations around, but the fact that Stratasys (SSYS) also took good hit points toward a common denominator. If we add that HP’s results and outlook presentation occurred simultaneously and that investors have been generous with HP, then we have a probable cause. Sometimes a chart says it all: Graph 1 – 3D Systems vs Stratasys vs HPQ Quick take: This might be a serious overreact. Why? 1 – SSYS and DDD have around for a long time, and by now they are established companies in the field of additive manufacturing. 2 ...
    On October 17, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Euro And Pound Sterling Flip-Flops On Brexit Talks

      The common currency was seen giving up more than half the gains made last week as price action in EUR/GBP was bearish. Closing at 0.8892 on Friday, EUR/GBP, however, remains supported above 0.8837 level of support. The gains in the euro came about as the Brexit talks continued but with no significant progress made. The euro initially rose last week after Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit chief negotiator said that “no great steps forward” were made in reference to the Brexit talks. However, by Friday the trend changed as reports emerged in a German newspaper that the EU leaders were preparing a two-year transition deal and went as far ...
    On October 17, 2017 / By