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    USDCAD Daily Analysis – Wednesday, Oct. 18

    USDCAD failed to breakout of 1.2598 resistance and stayed in the trading range between 1.2433 and 1.2598. Another fall to test 1.2433 support would likely be seen. A breakdown below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.2061 had completed at 1.2598 already, then the following downside movement could bring the price back to 1.2300, followed by 1.2061. On the upside, a breakout of 1.2598 level could signal resumption of the uptrend, this could trigger another rise towards 1.2750....
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Wednesday, Oct. 18

    WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during the day on Tuesday, reaching towards the $51 level. However, buyers came into the market later in the day, to form a hammer. The hammer suggests that we are going to go higher, and I also recognize that we have seen a bit of resistance just above. I think if we can clear the $53 level, we will eventually reach towards the $55 level above. I would be surprised if we break above there, as there is a massive oversupply of oil in the market. Yes, we are starting to see supply tighten a bit, but quite frankly, the Americans and Canadians will flood the market with supply at higher levels...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Challenges Critical 61.8% Fibonacci Support Zone

    EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD bounced at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of potential wave B (purple). A break above the resistance trend line (orange) would confirm a bullish breakout within wave C of wave X (pink). A break below the support trend line and 78.6% Fibonacci level makes a bullish ABC less likely and price will probably continue lower as part of wave 4 (light purple). 1 hour The EUR/USD broke above the falling wedge (dotted red) and could be building a wave 1-2 if price stays above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD offers two main scenarios where either a bearish ABC (green) or a wave 123 (green) is taki...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Implied Correlation And SKEW

    We hear a lot about the VIX and how volatility is low, but we rarely hear about the VIX’s siblings: the CBOE SKEW Index and the CBOE Implied Correlation index. This is a shame because they are certainly worth listening and paying attention to. All three are based on options on the S&P500 and its constituents. Looking at the charts, the first is the implied correlation index. While the level seems to go through longer-term cycles (albeit this index has only been around since 2007), the cyclical swings in implied correlations appear to give clues on the market outlook and can enhance market timing strategy. For example, (note t...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Sensex Opens In The Red; Axis Bank Plunges 7% On Weak Q2 Results

    Asian stock markets are higher today as Japanese and Hong Kong shares show gains. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.3% while the Hang Seng is up 0.1%. The Shanghai Composite is trading up by 0.2%. US markets inched to record closing highs in spite of a weak showing from financial stocks. Meanwhile, Indian share markets have opened the day in the red. BSE Sensex is trading lower by 85 points and NSE Nifty is trading lower by 35 points. S&P BSE Mid Cap is trading down by 0.1% and S&P BSE Small Cap is trading up by 0.1% respectively. Gains are largely seen in power stocks and software stocks. Bank stocks and auto stocks are le...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Draghi Does Not Lift The Euro

    One week ahead of the all-important ECB meeting, President Mario Draghi delivers opening remarks at the ECB conference in Frankfurt. EUR/USD was trading in a narrow range of only 33 pips ahead of the speech, and it seems he is unable to move the needle in the world’s most popular currency pair. Draghi’s opening remarks at the ECB conference focus on structural reforms rather than on monetary policy. He ties between the two topics, but it is hard to see anything to move the markets. The “window for economic reforms” that Draghi talks about says nothing about the upcoming QE decision which is of interest to markets. Here is a quote from...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Market Drama Hits A Fever Pitch As Trump Narrows Fed Chair Shortlist

    As you might expect from a reality TV show host, President Trump’s long selection process to identify the next Fed chair has increased the drama to record levels. Yesterday’s headlines suggested Stanford University economist John Taylor made a favorable impression on the President last week. The creator of the famed “Taylor Rule” for formulaically determining the appropriate interest rate at any given time, Taylor is broadly seen as more hawkish than current Fed chair Janet Yellen. Thus far, Trump has shown a penchant for hiring candidates with whom he has a strong relationship, though it is worth noting that he’...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – Wednesday, Oct. 18

    S&P 500 The S&P 500 initially fell during the day on Tuesday but found enough support to turn around and form a hammer again. It looks as if the earnings season is going higher, as so far most estimates have been rather healthy. The 2550 level looks to be very supportive, but I also recognize that we have been a bit overbought for a while. I think pullbacks are coming, but I also think that the pullbacks that are coming are going to be buying opportunities. I have no interest in shorting this market, and believe that the bottom of the uptrend is probably closer to the 2500 level. Given enough time, the market should then go looking to...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Oil Prices Continue To Firm Up

    Oil prices were higher on Wednesday morning, powered by a decline in I.S. crude inventories and continued worries about political tensions in Iraq and Iran. U.S. WTI futures were up 0.33 percent to $52.05 per barrel and Brent crude futures were up 0.60 percent to $58.23 per barrel as of 1:19 p.m. HK/SIN. Some technical analysts have noted that a “Golden Cross” is approaching for WTI. The Golden Cross is a technical pattern in which the 50-day moving average price is higher than the 200 day moving average, a highly bullish indicator. According to data out from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday, U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.1 ...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Stagnant U.K. Household Earnings To Fuel GBP/USD Weakness

    Trading the News: U.K. Employment Change In light of the market reaction to the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI), another batch of lackluster data prints may continue to rattle the near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it saps bets for higher interest rates. Even though BoE Governor Mark Carney warns the central bank will deliver a rate-hike over the ‘coming months,’ the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on November 2 as ‘it was too soon to judge whether stronger consumption growth would be sufficient to offset continuing weakness in business investment.’ In ...
    On October 18, 2017 / By