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  • Finance 0

    Morning Call For Wednesday, Oct. 18

    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.15%) this morning are up +0.16% at a new record nearest-futures high and European stocks are up +0.45% at a 5-month high. Optimism that the Trump administration will pass a tax reform plan continues to underpin U.S. equity prices, while speculation that the ECB will remain accommodative for longer in lifting European stocks. An introductory speech by ECB President Draghi today at a conference in Frankfort shed no light on ECB plans, while the markets speculate that President Trump will insert a hawk to be the next Fed Chair. A person familiar with the process said that President Trump w...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Tools For Tracking The S&P 500 Over Time

    We’re busy behind the scenes today here at Political Calculations, but to mark the occasion of new highs for the U.S. stock market, we thought we might revisit the past for the S&P 500 and its index predecessors. First, a quick look at the average value of the S&P 500 in each month since January 1871. Now that you’ve seen the chart, you might want to extract some of the data for certain periods from it. That’s where our The S&P 500 At Your Fingertips tool comes into play, because not only can we tell you what the value of the S&P 500 or its predecessor indices was in any of those months, we can also tell yo...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    What You Need To Know To Invest In Stocks Strategically

    To invest in stocks, you need to know how to choose the ones that are best for you. Once you’ve chosen your stocks, decide how involved you want to be with managing your investments and take a look at the different options that are available to you. Audio Length: 00:04:21...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC Something Wicked This Way Comes: McDonald’s – A Bear In A Bull Costume

    As Halloween nears, kids are choosing costumes to transform themselves into witches, baseball players and anything else they can imagine. In the spirit of Halloween, we thought it might be an appropriate time to describe the most popular costume on Wall Street, one which many companies have been donning and fooling investors with terrific success. Having gained over 65% in the last two years, the stock of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) recently caught our attention. Given the sharp price increase for what is thought of as a low growth company, we assumed their new line of healthier menu items, mobile app ordering, and restaurant modernization...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Small-Caps Seeing Historic Squeeze

    For the last month we have been noting a dramatic divergence between Small Cap stock prices and their implied risk… We can only remember one such lengthy decoupling in recent history, and that did not end well… And of course this is all occurring as Small Cap earnings expectations plunge… But now, as Dana Lyons’ Tumblr details, there has only been one trading range in the history of the Russell 2000 tighter than the current one – and it immediately preceded a crash.     As U.S. large-cap stocks continue to make new highs seemingly every day, the small-caps are doing something remarkable. Or, more accurately, it ...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Oil: Tough Making A Shale Buck

    Oil producers in shale and oil sands are finding it tough to make a buck and keep production levels rising. While the oil trade has been betting on ever-rising shale production the truth is that production has leveled off. Some are saying there is a “shale band” at $60 basis Brent crude, that the market cannot cross without getting a flood of shale oil. The truth is that even if oil prices go up the market will be disappointed with increases in shale oil production. That goes for oil sands as well. In the short-term oil will be focused on the resurgent U.S. dollar and oil inventories that may show another big oil supply drawdown but big p...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Topix And The Japanese Yen

    Today we look at the outlook for Japanese equities along with the view on the Japanese Yen and how it ties in with the stock market. We will talk through the enormous equity risk premium for Japanese equities, as well as a key chart that maps the course of valuations, interest rates, and economic growth. We then review the improving earnings and cyclical macroeconomic backdrop. Finally we look at how the TOPIX (similar situation for the Nikkei 225) trades in relation to the Yen.In particular we review the models for the outlook for the USDJPY and see how the odds are weighted and how this might play into a possible decoupling of stocks vs the...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Despite Wage Data Sterling Dips

    The Pound Sterling initially ticked higher but soon after fell to a 6-day trough after the latest economic data on the UK economy showed wage growth still slow and lagging UK inflation. The Pound was already under some pressure after markets interested comments made by policymakers from the Bank of England to be of a dovish bias. The BoE’s newest member, the deputy governor, said that he was not in agreement with the MPC stance of a needed rate hike. One other BoE member, also a newcomer, said that in her mind data would drive the decision. As reported at 11:22 am (BST) in London, the GBP/USD was trading at $1.3175, down 0.10%; the pair ha...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Silver Bullion Prices Set To Soar

    Written by Myra Saefong via Barrons Silver bullion prices are expected to jump as solar and smartphone demand rises and the Fed tries to stave off economic weakness. Gold prices have far outpaced gains in silver so far this year, but silver will emerge as the winner for the second year in a row. With a per-ounce price of $17.41 for silver futures as of Friday, analysts say the white metal is poised for a big climb, particularly as the gold-to-silver ratio stands well above historical averages. “Silver is definitely undervalued compared to gold and as a stand-alone investment. I consider it likely to be the most undervalued asset in the gen...
    On October 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    ‘It’s Too Quiet’: Markets Calm After Xi Lays Out China’s Friendly World Domination Plans

    Some folks are saying it’s “too quiet” out there on Wednesday morning, although European shares look to have picked up a little bit of steam. Asia was flat because Xi Jinping spoke for eight straight hours with no water and without blinking at the 19th Party Congress. I’m just kidding. But he did speak for more than three hours and although it is impossible to “summarize” a three-and-a-half hour speech with bullet points, here’s Bloomberg’s best effort: Real economy needs to be improved China poised for modestly prosperous society China and world in period of complex changes Housing is for living not speculation Says “no cou...
    On October 18, 2017 / By