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Weekly Heating Oil Prices
We’ve used data based on the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which publishes price data weekly on home heating oil in 38 states by dollar-per-gallon before taxes. Unlike natural gas and electricity, home heating oil is provided by independent retailers. The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $2.66, down less than a penny from last week. Supply is also down from last week. EIA’s heating oil data is seasonal – from October through March. Here’s a look at the series since its inception in 1990. EIA breaks the data down into regions and sub-regions. Here we’ve overlayed the US average with the ... -
Finance 0
Invest In Well Defined Behavior
“Davidson” submits: You can’t forecast what you cannot see…or can you? People are more predictable than things. Investing is a process which must look through a fog of unknown using past experience. Many use mathematical trend analysis to forecast the future and provide forecasts with date and penny precision. But, how does one forecast inventions such as the iPhone, the Internet, a cure for Hepatitis C or preventative for HIV which force forecasters to revise all their previous assumptions of earlier forecasts. How does one forecast the future of markets if one never anticipated such evolutionary discoveries? The answer lays in not t... -
Finance 0
Cryptocurrencies Are Non-Financial Collective Equity
One of the troubles with understanding the cryptocurrency boom is that the existing definitions aren’t consistent. We call all of these things “currencies”, but that implies that they are all money which is incorrect. For instance, Filecoin is basically a decentralized version of Dropbox. It isn’t a currency at all. It has an exchange value, but it isn’t a “currency” in the traditional sense of the word. This space is so new that the terminology still isn’t very clear. I’ll try to make this short and sweet so let’s see if we can add some clarity here. I really like where Adam Ludwin, founder of Chain, started with this: ... -
Finance 0
October 2017 Beige Book: Reading Between The Lines – Rate Of Economic Expansion Unchanged
The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) stated “activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate”. The previous report stated “expanded at a modest to moderate pace across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts in July and August“. Analyst Opinion of this month’s Beige Book Seems like the rate of growth marginally was unchanged from the last report. Please see the end of this post for words the Federal Reserve uses when the economy is entering a recession. The Beige Book completely missed the 2001 recession, ... -
Finance 0
A Cloud Over Housing
In September builders started fewer homes than the month before, which means the peak this year was in June, and since then housing starts have been falling. September fell 4.7% from August. Still they were higher by 6.1% from a year ago so not all is dire. It is a concern that this is the third month in a row that starts have fallen. Single family homes were also down but to a lesser extent. Turning to permits, which give us a look at the future, they too were down, falling 4.5% and down 4.3% year over year. However, removing the multi-family permits and focusing solely on single family home permits that number was up 2.4% to the highest lev... -
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5 Top-Performing Vanguard Mutual Funds Of 4Q17
Vanguard, the biggest fund family of the United States in terms of asset under management, is expected to put up a stellar show in the final quarter of this year. It offers a variety of investment options from index funds to key actively managed funds. The company helps to create effective investment goals with a suitable asset allocation and low-cost portfolio. While a bulk of Vanguard’s assets are invested in index funds, around 30% of these are focused on actively managed funds. Strong performance by most of the mutual funds of this fund family calls for investment in some of the major Vanguard mutual funds. What Contributed to Vanguard... -
Finance 0
Rio Tinto Drops After Being Charged With Fraud By SEC, Fined In The UK
Shares of Rio Tinto (RIO) dropped in morning trading after the mining and metals company and two former executives were charged with fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for inflating the value of coal assets. SEC CHARGES: The SEC charged Rio Tinto, its former Chief Executive Officer Thomas Albanese and former Chief Financial Officer Guy Elliott with failing to follow accounting standards and company policies to accurately value and record coal assets in Mozambique acquired for $3.7B in 2011 from Riversdale Mining and sold a few years later for $50M. The complaint, which was filed in federal court in Manhattan, alleges that af... -
Finance 0
The Euro’s Complicated Top
This Great Graphic depicts the top the euro is carving. We suggest that several fundamental developments lie behind the price action. Interest rate differentials are widening interest rate differentials favoring the US. Speculative market positioning is leaning heavily long euros. European politics no longer the tailwind that it was, it is not surprising that the euro appears to be carving out a top. There is increased speculation that the ECB’s asset purchases will continue well into next year, even if at a slower pace. The divergence between the Fed’s balance sheet that has begun shrinking and the ECB’s balance s... -
Finance 0
Dow At 23,000, Now What?
By Steve Sosnick (Video length 00:01:38) Steve Sosnick, Chief Options Strategist at Interactive Brokers, examines the state of the market as the Dow hit 23,000....
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