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Ebay Inc Q3 2017 Earnings: Weak Guidance Sinks Shares
eBay Q3 2017 earnings were released after closing bell tonight, and the company reported non-GAAP earnings of 48 cents per share on $2.4 billion in sales. Analysts had been expecting non-GAAP earnings of 48 cents per share on $2.3 billion in revenue. In last year’s third quarter, eBay posted earnings of 45 cents per share on $2.2 billion in revenue. The company had guided for 46 cents to 48 cents per share in non-GAAP earnings. Simon / Pixabay On a GAAP basis, eBay Q3 2017 earnings from continuing operations also amounted to 48 cents per share. Total gross merchandise volume grew 8% on a reported basis and 7% on a currency-neutral basis to... -
Finance 0
Will ‘Great Trends Grow’ From ‘Little Volatilities’?
Former trader and current man who gave up on you knowing how to trade years ago, Richard Breslow, is out on Wednesday with a pretty good piece that touches – knowingly or not – on some concepts Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic has explored at length: the idea of a noisy status quo, and beyond that, the notion that central bank transparency has made it impossible for anyone to form a long-term view. As a reminder, here’s Kocic on the noisy status quo: As transparency became the word of the decade, by its very nature it created the forces that push everything to the surface. Things exist thanks only to the attention they produce. There ... -
Finance 0
A Derivatives Look At What Happened To ‘Reflation’
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that total gross notional derivatives contracts owned and outstanding by domestic banks rose for the second straight quarter. The OCC statistics are one quarter behind, meaning that though banks themselves are reporting Q3 numbers with earnings all figures shown here are from the official compilation for Q2. As such, the general trend was closer in line with “reflation” than in the most recent quarter, but clearly in transition from a more thorough embrace in Q1. The increase in gross notionals fits with that characterization – a rise but still not much of one. The total for Q2... -
Finance 0
Bitcoin Completes 5-Wave Advance
A clear 5 waves can be traced-out since the beginning of 2015. The 1st wave was roughly 2830 points and lasted a year and a half. The current 5th wave has seemingly completed at 2825 points, which is nearly the same size as wave 1. It’s typical in Elliott wave theory that the 1st & 5th wave are either roughly the same size and/or duration, and the 3rd wave is always the largest of all 5 waves. Which is exactly what we have occurring now! In theory, Bitcoin should correct in some sort of 3-part move or A-B-C correction. That said, a quick resumption of strength over the recent peak in the 5850 region could hint of an extension wh... -
Finance 0
Big Blue Blasts Dow To (Another) New Record High As Chinese Yield Curve Inverts
Don’t fight The Fed or The Machines… Video length: 00:04:05 The Dow is now the 2nd most overbought in 22 years… 3rd most overbought in 62 years Kicking off The National Congress last night, Xi’s words did not manage to inspire the bond market as China’s yield curve inverted once again… But thanks to Big Blue’s best day in almost 9 years… The Dow soared over 150 points, now above 23,100 (IBM +100 Dow pts, Goldman +45 Dow pts) Notably, there was an odd flash-crash ‘error’ in The Dow’s VIX today… As once again, Dow and Dow VIX rose together… something has to give̷... -
Finance 0
Flattening Curve: Ticking Clock On This Over-Extended Cycle
As the stock market parties like it’s early 2000, a historically reliable indicator of economic weakness, the yield curve, continues to raise alarm in North America. The spread between 2 and 10 -year US Treasury yields reached a new cycle low of .75 this week, and in Canada .51. As show below in my partner Cory Venable’s chart since 1975, when these spreads reach zero, a recession is underway or close at hand. In the present extraordinary cycle though, with central banks so aggressively influencing both ultra-low short-term yields, as well as longer term rates with QT (quantitative tapering), the question is whether a classic inversion of... -
Finance 0
Fed Says Economic Activity Increased In September Through October
The Federal Reserve says in its latest Beige Book, “Reports from all 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate. The Richmond, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts reported major disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in some areas and sectors, including transportation, energy, and agriculture. Manufacturing activity and nonfinancial services expanded modestly to moderately in most Districts. Retail spending rose slowly, while vehicle sales and tourism increased in most Districts. Residential construction continued to... -
Finance 0
Fed Chair Pick To Be Made In 2 Weeks
Small Caps Stall The stock market was mixed on Tuesday. One of the new trends we’re seeing is weakness from the Russell 2000 which was down 0.34% on Tuesday. It’s now down 7 of the last 10 days. Even with that weakness it’s off less than 1% from its peak. This was to be expected given the powerful run it had been on. The microcaps have also sold off as they’re down about 2% from their recent peak. AAPL has had a great run since I recommended it as it’s up 6.59%. The stock was upgraded on Monday. I think now is the time to take profits as it’s near its all time high right before the iPhone X starts taking pre-orders. Analysts ca... -
Finance 0
Fed Chair Pick To Be Made In 2 Weeks
Small Caps Stall The stock market was mixed on Tuesday. One of the new trends we’re seeing is weakness from the Russell 2000 which was down 0.34% on Tuesday. It’s now down 7 of the last 10 days. Even with that weakness it’s off less than 1% from its peak. This was to be expected given the powerful run it had been on. The microcaps have also sold off as they’re down about 2% from their recent peak. AAPL has had a great run since I recommended it as it’s up 6.59%. The stock was upgraded on Monday. I think now is the time to take profits as it’s near its all time high right before the iPhone X starts taking pre-orders. Analysts ca... -
Finance 0
Housing Starts And The Economic Cycle – Wednesday, October 18
Wednesday’s data on Housing Starts and Building Permits disappointed consensus expectations, and while some of the declines can be chalked up to the hurricanes in the South we would note that Starts in both the Northeast and Midwest regions also showed declines. One silver lining to this month’s data was that in both the cases of Housing Starts and Building Permits, the majority of the weakness was in multi-family units, which tend to be more volatile. Residential construction is a big part of the US economy, so naturally, an uptick or slowdown in activity is going to have an impact on the business cycle. The chart below compares historic...
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