Latest Posts
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Finance 0
Sinking Apartments (Not From Storms)
Housing construction continues to slow in 2017, dragged down by fewer multi-family projects. Total permits and starts have essentially flatlined since 2015, a further slowdown from one already slowdown. The single-family market is still growing but at a historically tepid pace, leaving the pace of construction overall to be dictated by weakness in apartment development. In September 2017, new permits for multi-family structures dropped on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 360k from a significantly revised (downward) 436k in August. The 6-month average, a better measure smoothing out very high monthly variations in this series, has been less than... -
Finance 0
Sinking Apartments (Not From Storms)
Housing construction continues to slow in 2017, dragged down by fewer multi-family projects. Total permits and starts have essentially flatlined since 2015, a further slowdown from one already slowdown. The single-family market is still growing but at a historically tepid pace, leaving the pace of construction overall to be dictated by weakness in apartment development. In September 2017, new permits for multi-family structures dropped on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 360k from a significantly revised (downward) 436k in August. The 6-month average, a better measure smoothing out very high monthly variations in this series, has been less than... -
Finance 0
The Fragile Gold Industry: Gigantic Equipment, Massive Capital Expenditures & Rising Costs
The gold industry has been built on the leveraging of debt and energy. The days of using human and animal labor to produce the precious yellow metal are long gone. While some gold is still mined the old fashion way, the overwhelming majority is produced by using colossal-sized mining equipment, massive amounts of capital, energy, and materials. Thus, the global gold supply comes via a very complex industry with a lot of moving parts. When one of these critical parts are in short supply or removed, then the entire gold supply system disintegrates. An example of one of the newest complex gold mines in the world is the Pueblo Viejo Mine in the... -
Finance 0
Indexing: Valid But Flawed
I caught an interesting exchange on Twitter between old friend Mark Yusko and Lance Roberts as follows; This conversation gets to the heart of one of the major themes of this blog going back to the beginning. Indexing, where the context is buying passive funds and holding on no matter what, is, of course, valid and can get the job done but the drawbacks are considerable and partially captured in the tweets. To my way of thinking, there is no question that the bull/bear cycle is alive and well, there will be a bear phase that comes along at some point and then after that, the market will make a new high at some point. In that context, holding ... -
Finance 0
Bitcoin Price Drops Off A Cliff At Mention Of Regulation
Bitcoin plunged suddenly on Wednesday after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission claimed jurisdiction over bitcoin derivatives. It’s only the latest whiff of regulation, and apparently those who invest in the cryptocurrency can’t handle it. However, some are calling this bitcoin price drop a healthy one because of how high it climbed in such a short amount of time. geralt / Pixabay Bitcoin tanked by about 9% on Wednesday, tumbling by almost $500 at one point to reach a low of $5,109.70. The bitcoin price drop is the cryptocurrency’s biggest in a month, reports Bloomberg, and according to CoinDesk today has brought the lowes... -
Finance 0
New Residential Building Permits: Up In September
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.215M was a decrease from 1.272M in August and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.245M. Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report: Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 4.5 percent (±1.6 percent) below the revised August rate of 1,272,000 and is 4.3 percent (±1.7 percent) below the September 2016 rate of 1,270,000. Single-famil... -
Finance 0
The Elimination Of A Natural Gas Weather Premium
Again today we saw natural gas prices come under heavy selling pressure as longer-range forecasts eliminated the heating demand that we see in the medium-term forecast. The result was a break below one of our near-term support levels at $2.88 which opens up room for a re-test of $2.83. One easy way to see the impact of the weather is on the X7/Z7 spread, which has widened significantly as of late. As heating demand expectations to close out October have fallen, it has become clear that this medium-range demand spike will not be sustained and into early November weather-driven natural gas demand will be limited. The result, then, is less int... -
Finance 0
Alcoa Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results
PITTSBURGH–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA): 3Q 2017 Results1 Net income of $113 million, or $0.60 per share Excluding special items, adjusted net income of $135 million, or $0.72 per share $561 million of adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) excluding special items, up 16 percent sequentially, on improved aluminum pricing and higher aluminum and bauxite shipments Revenue of $3.0 billion, up 4 percent sequentially, driven primarily by improved aluminum pricing, higher aluminum shipments and increased energy sales $1.1 billion cash balance and $1.4 billion of debt, for net debt ... -
Finance 0
SEC Hires JPM Banker As Its Most Important Markets Regulator; May Blow Up HFTs
Yes, it’s another glaring case of “revolving door” cronyism between Wall Street and the SEC: on Wednesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced it had hired Brett Redfearn, a JPMorgan banker, to head the agency’s Division of Trading and Markets, arguably the most important group within the SEC, one which oversees U.S. stock markets and brokerages. Redfearn, who is currently head of market structure at JPM, would fill a slot that has been vacant since January when the previous head of Trading & Markets, Stephen Luparello left the SEC… and three months later joined Citadel as General Counsel, which ... -
Finance 0
Chipotle Slides After Analyst Says Sell On Labor Costs Concerns
Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) are sliding after Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Gregory Francort downgraded the stock to Underperform, a sell-equivalent rating, on labor costs concerns. The analyst argued that while the struggling restaurant chain has done a “very strong job” managing labor in a tough sales backdrop, it will have trouble cutting back labor costs any further than it already has. Meanwhile, his peer at Deutsche Bank told investors that. after evaluating the bull case for shares of Chipotle, he is keeping a Sell rating on the name. SELL CHIPOTLE: In a research note to investors this morning, Bank of Am...
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