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Finance 0
New Residential Building Permits: Up Again In October
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for October new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.297M was an increase from 1.225M in September and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.247M. Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report: Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,297,000. This is 5.9 percent (±1.4 percent) above the revised September rate of 1,225,000 and is 0.9 percent (±1.6 percent)* above the October 2016 rate of 1,285,000. Single-fam... -
Finance 0
USD/JPY And AUD/USD Forecast – Friday, Nov. 17
USD/JPY The US dollar rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 113 handle. By doing so, looks as if the market is trying to rally a bit, perhaps breaking higher than the range for the day could send this market to the 114.50 level above, which is the beginning of resistance. That area extends to the 115 handle, and if we can finally break above there I think it’s more of a longer-term buy-and-hold situation. However, I think that short-term dips offer buying opportunities, although it’s going to be very volatile. If we were to break down below the 112 level, then the market is free to go down to the... -
Finance 0
Crude Oil: Continue With The Cuts
Khalid A. Al-Falih, the Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia and chairman of Saudi Aramco all but guaranteed an extension of oil production cuts to be officially announced at the end of the month despite the protestations by some Russian oil companies. Russian oil companies are desperate to raise production to try to get more cash from oil prices that are near 2 and a half year highs. Yet, Russian President Vladimir Putin will have none of that as he is looking at the big picture and understands the political power that comes with higher oil prices. Talking about power, a report from the daily mail that King Salm... -
Finance 0
Slowing Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) To Curb USD/CAD Weakness
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to slow down for the first time since June, and signs of easing price pressures may generate a near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it encourages the Bank of Canada (BoC) to carry a wait-and-see approach into 2018. Keep in mind, the BoC appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy next year as the central bank notes ‘less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time,’ but Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may stick to the sidelines at the last-2017 meeting on December 6 as ‘wage and other data indicate that there is still slack in the labour market.’ With t... -
Finance 0
Apple Could Be A Trillion Dollar Company By 2018
Apple could be the first company in U.S. history to reach a trillion dollars in market capitalization by as early as 2018. According to top analysts such as Daniel Ives of GBH Insights, AAPL shares “could trade between $210 and $230 over the next year.” Currently AAPL is trading at $171 per share with a market cap of $880 billion. Even if Ives is being overly optimistic and Apple shares only climb to $195, or a 13% increase from today’s price, then that would still put the consumer electronics company’s worth at $1 trillion. Going from $171 to $195 may sound like a large return, especially for a company that already has a large mark... -
Finance 0
Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?
Is the New Fed Chief Jeremy Powell a “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”? Trump surrounding himself with elites disconnected from everyday society Realities of America’s difficulties not recognised by US power makers Powell will likely continue to protect Wall Street over Main Street Savers should diversify to protect themselves from Fed’s ponzi policies Just like many of his other campaign promises, Trump isn’t doing a great job of draining the swamp. His nominee for Fed Chair is Jerome Powell. Powell is a ‘swamp critter extraordinaire’ so declared by Bill Bonner last week. We’re inclined to agree. Name-calling is poor sports... -
Finance 0
Euro Surge Higher Assisted By Market Mauling Of AUD & NZD
Price action on our complex of euro pairs has seen the single currency move strongly higher, particularly against the Aussie and Kiwi where the surge has taken both EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD to key resistance levels on the slower time frame charts. For EUR/AUD the key level lies in the 1.5640 region, and for EUR/NZD the level it is at 1.7270, a price point the pair has now broken. Today’s close for both pairs, along with their respective volume profile is therefore important as it will determine, not only whether the single currency can continue its present bullish momentum, but whether the chronic weakness we are seeing in both Aussie and Kiwi i... -
Finance 0
Mystery Of Inflation And Gold
At the September FOMC press conference, Yellen admitted that subdued inflation was a puzzle for the Fed. She said: “This year, the shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, when none of those factors is operative is more of a mystery, and I will not say that the committee clearly understands what the causes are of that.” Actually, the chart below shows that inflation has been subdued for years. The last time when the CPI was above the Fed’s 2-percent target (formally set in January 2012) in a decisive and lasting way was in 2011 and at the beginning of 2012. Chart 1: CPI (yellow line) and core CPI (red line) as a percent change from... -
Finance 0
Business Cycles And Inflation
Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q4 2017 –Special Guest Ben Hunt, Author and Editor of Epsilon Theory The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on October 10 and we had the great pleasure to be joined by special guest Ben Hunt this time, who is probably known to many of our readers as the main author and editor of Epsilon Theory. He is also chief risk officer at investment management firm Salient Partners. As always, a transcript of the discussion is available for download below. Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory and chief risk officer of Salient Partners As usual, we will add a few words here to expan... -
Finance 0
Weekend Reading: You Have Been Warned
Investors aren’t paying attention. There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week. On Tuesday, we saw the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) which ROSE 0.4% for the month following a similar rise of 0.4% last month. This surge in prices was NOT surprising given the recent devastation from 3-hurricanes and massive wildfires in California which led to a temporary surge in demand for products and services. Then on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released whi...
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