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  • Finance 0

    Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, November 19

    NZD/USD The New Zealand dollar has had a rough week yet again, testing the 0.68 level. I believe that if we break down below the lows of the week, we will continue the downward pressure. Any rally at this point in time will probably face a significant amount of resistance near the 0.70 level as well. This is a market that could get a boost to the downside if the US Congress can pass tax reform, as it would put bullish pressure on the greenback. At this point, I suspect there’s more downside risk than upside risk. USD/JPY The US dollar initially tried to rally, but then rolled over to reach towards the 112-level underneath. If we break down ...
    On November 19, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Trading Forecast: US Politics May Trump Economics Again

    Financial markets are likely to remain at the mercy of US politics despite a flurry of speeches from key central bankers and several big-splash releases on the economic calendar. US Dollar Forecast: Politics to Overshadow Yellen Speech, FOMC Minutes The US Dollar is likely to remain at the mercy of politics-driven volatility as inflationary fiscal stimulus prospects remain the central object of speculation. Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Likely Stuck, But Watch For RBA Speakers The Australian Dollar is caught between some reasonably perky domestic economic data and a central bank in no obvious hurry to lift interest rates f...
    On November 19, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, November 19

    EUR/USD broke above the falling trend line on the daily chart and is now facing 1.1879 resistance. A breakout of this level will confirm that the downside movement from 1.2092 had completed at 1.1554 already, then further rise towards 1.2092 previous high could be seen. Above this level could signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.0340. Near term support is at 1.1690, followed by 1.1554. Below these levels could trigger another low towards the resistance-turned-support trend line on the weekly chart now at around 1.1400....
    On November 19, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Above The 40 – The Stock Market Sharply Switches To A Bullish Divergence

    AT40 = 47.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 11.4Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) failed to follow-through on Thursday’s snapback rally, but a bullish divergence kept the short-term prospects looking good. While the index gapped down and fell fractionally, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving averages (DMAs) rallied into a positive close. My favorite technical indicator gained two percentage points to close at 47.9%. In a surprising plot twist, ...
    On November 19, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    World Stocks Mixed As Global Market Rally Loses Momentum

    Global financial markets ended the week on a mixed note. In the US, the Dow industrials ended the week down 0.4%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.1%. It was their biggest two-week declines since mid-August, when worries about rising tensions between North Korea and the US weighed on stocks. Debate over the prospect of a significant tax overhaul in the US has swung stocks this week. On Thursday, the House of Representatives passed a bill that would reduce the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35%. Still, hurdles remain as the focus now shifts to the Senate, which is contending with debate over its own bill. European equities ended the week lo...
    On November 19, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Black Friday Lead To A Green Market?

    The economic calendar includes few reports, crammed into two days of a holiday-shortened week. Many will be taking time off – including some of the “A List” pundits. I expect to see some new faces on financial television and a lot of discussion about consumers and the economy. Many will be asking: What does Black Friday mean for the economy, and for stocks? Last Week Recap In the last edition of WTWA I suggested that housing would be the most important story, and that some would focus on millennials as a potential market driver. I may have been accurate on the biggest story, but not on the media attention. Allegations of sexual miscon...
    On November 19, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Rally Trumpets An Appealing Yet Solemn Tone

    A Trumpet, in the hands of an accomplished musician, can be played to sound like the penetrating cry of an elephant. How ironic that the elephant in the photo is a wooden shell of a prehistoric woolly mammoth, or another version of our Rallysaurus. The rally is blowing its own horn in the face of the relentless bull market. Some of the tunes resemble the sounds of cool jazz. While others can make even an apathetic listener cry. Over the course of last week, several instruments changed directions, hence, phases. The Russell 2000, confirmed a Bullish phase. Regional Banks (KRE), jumped from a Distribution to Warning to a Bullish phase. Biotechn...
    On November 19, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Technical Market Report For November 18, 2017

    The good news is: Beginning last Thursday new lows all but disappeared and the secondaries outperformed the blue chips. The Negatives The negatives disappeared at the end of last week. The Positives The breadth indicators turned upward beginning last Thursday and continued to move upward on Friday in spite of a down day for the blue chip indices. The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing new lows move the indicator downward (up is good).  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the ...
    On November 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Delivering Negative Alpha

    “No matter how you “slice-and-dice the data,” hedge funds are struggling to meet their promise to clients to consistently produce high returns with low correlation to markets. It’s kind of: ‘I promise you a Rolls Royce and I give you a Honda.’” – Matt Granade, Chief Market Intelligence Officer, Point72 Asset Management There are more hedge funds in the world than Dunkin’ Donuts. What does that statement have to do with negative alpha? Everything. Too many funds + similar strategies + limited opportunity set + high fees = underwhelming returns. Simply put: there’s not enough alpha to go around. Back in the day, long...
    On November 18, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Market On Edge

    Stocks end a volatile week right where it began the week. In this crucial weekend update learn we look at what to expect next week and what risks are lurking....
    On November 18, 2017 / By