Latest Posts
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Finance 0
S&P 500 Hot Streak Extended
With today’s new highs, the S&P 500’s current bull market has extended to 3,179 calendar days dating back to March 9th, 2009. To surpass the record length for a bull market (20%+ rally without a 20%+ decline), there’s still a long way to go, however, since the longest bull lasted 4,494 days from 12/4/1987 through 3/24/2000. The current streak of days without a 10%+ pullback has yet to crack the top ten, but it will if we go another 2 days. As shown in the top right table below, the 10th longest streak without a 10%+ pullback was 650 days from 10/22/1957 to 8/3/1959. The current streak without a 10%+ pullback is now at 649 days. Un... -
Finance 0
Are Markets Really As Calm As They Seem?
Indicators for financial market “stress” have reached their lowest levels in decades. For instance, stock market volatility has never been this low since the early 1990s. Credit spreads have been shrinking, and prices for credit default swaps have fallen to pre-crisis levels. In fact, investors are no longer haunted by concerns about the stability of the financial system, potential credit defaults, and unfavourable surprises in the economy or financial assets markets. How come? Monetary policy plays the significant role. By slashing interest rates and ramping up the quantity of money in the banking system, central banks around the... -
Finance 0
Are Markets Really As Calm As They Seem?
Indicators for financial market “stress” have reached their lowest levels in decades. For instance, stock market volatility has never been this low since the early 1990s. Credit spreads have been shrinking, and prices for credit default swaps have fallen to pre-crisis levels. In fact, investors are no longer haunted by concerns about the stability of the financial system, potential credit defaults, and unfavourable surprises in the economy or financial assets markets. How come? Monetary policy plays the significant role. By slashing interest rates and ramping up the quantity of money in the banking system, central banks around the... -
Finance 0
E Is Gold’s Relationship With Key Market Indicators Changing?
Gold perhaps retains its reputation as the perfect store of value, especially during tough economic periods. Historically, the yellow metal has demonstrated its ability to act as a haven when stock markets are bearish. As such, gold prices tend to rally during a recession and fall during bullish markets. The price of gold has also demonstrated in the past that when interest rates are rising, the prices fall and vice versa. It has also shown that when the USD strengthens, against major currencies, gold prices decline. However, the yellow metal has exhibited an unpredictable relationship with some of these indicators over the last few years, es... -
Finance 0
Market Continues To Consolidate Following Thursday’s Rally
My Swing Trading Approach Looking to increase my stop-loss on my profitable positions today, while adding 1-2 new long positions. Indicators VIX – Continues to decay off of those highs reached last Wednesday. Dropped 6.8% down to 10.65. I expect we’ll see sub-10 again very soon. T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day moving average): Day 3 of the bounce – up 4% to 50%. Big move overall in the last three days. Moving averages (SPX): Same as the previous trading day – holding the 20-day, and wedged right between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The 5-day MA also crossed below the 20-day. Industries to... -
Finance 0
Places To Avoid For Commercial Real Estate Investment
Recently I have indicated I see a lot of problems in asset markets despite the economic acceleration in Europe, Japan, and the US. For example, there is a liquidity mismatch in high yield bond and leveraged loan markets and technology shares are priced for perfection. Commercial real estate is also a problem that I want to highlight briefly since I believe it will be a locus of distress in the next global downturn. Here’s the picture to focus on: The UBS Housing Bubble Index shows a number of cities with house prices at significant risk of a future correction pic.twitter.com/3dzXUDfPMU — Edward Harrison (@edwardnh) November 20, 2017 Th... -
Finance 0
Global Bounce
Just last Wednesday we noted that stock markets around the world were trending lower and in many cases moving into oversold territory. Just six days later, it appears to be smooth sailing again as most countries have bounced back in a big way. Below is our Country ETF Trading Range screen, which highlights where 30 of the largest country ETFs are trading relative to their historical range. For each country ETF, the dot represents where it’s currently trading, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago.The black, vertical “N” line represents each ETF’s 50-day moving average, and moves into the red or green zones ... -
Finance 0
Morgan Stanley: Tesla Will Surge To $400 Before Crashing To $200
When it comes to Wall Street cheerleaders, Tesla has few closer friends than Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas (current price target of $379). To be sure, the relationship cuts both ways, with Jonas relentless enthusiasm ‘for the EV maker granting Morgan Stanley a reserved spot for any future debt, convert and equity underwriting, as well as associated IB fees.Yet, following the recent volatility in Tesla’s business model, in which the “production hell” that is Model 3 has been quietly relegated to the latest and greatest hype involving the company’s truck (funded in turn by deposits for the new Tesla $250,000 f... -
Finance 0
Existing Home Sales Jump 2% Yet Remain Below Level Reached A Year Ago
Existing home sales rose 2% in October yet remain 0.9% below the level reached in October 2016. Mortgage News Daily reports Existing Home Sales Erase Summertime Losses. For the second straight month the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) is reporting that sales of previously owned homes increased, this time by 2.0 percent. Single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and townhouses sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million. The increase brought sales back to their strongest pace since June’s rate of 5.51 million, but they are still running behind sales in October 2016 by 0.9 percent. September’s sales had been ...
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