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  • Finance 0

    Soaring Consumer Confidence

    Consumer confidence soared to a 17-year high in The Conference Board’s report today. High levels of consumer confidence tend to translate to an improved retail sales environment as can be seen in the below chart. With consumers accounting for approximately 70% of economic (GDP) activity, today’s confidence report portends a positive retail sales environment during the holiday shopping season.   On the other side of the coin though, The Conference Board’s third quarter CEO Confidence measure was reported with a slight decline in early October as represented by the green line in the below chart. About two weeks ago we repor...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    NZD/USD Recovery Vulnerable To Dovish RBNZ Parliament Testimony

    NZD/USD extends the rebound from earlier this month, with the pair quickly approaching the November-high (0.6980), but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report (FSR) may rattle the near-term recovery in the exchange rate should the central bank cast a dovish outlook for monetary policy. With acting Governor Grant Spencer scheduled to testify in front of Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure committee, the central bank head may merely attempt to buy more time especially as the coalition government under Prime Minister JacindaArdern pledge to review and revise the RBNZ’s mandate. With that said, Governor ...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Home Prices Rose 6.2% Year-Over-Year In September

    With today’s release of the September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.5% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 6.2% for the last thirty months. Today’s S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high. The adjacent column chart illustrates the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted 20-city index, which tends to be the most closely watched of the Case-Shiller series. It was up 0.5% from the previous month. The nonseasonally...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    GBPUSD – Test Of 1.3600 Coming?

    Cable popped in late London trade on reports from the Independent that EU and UK have agreed to a Brexit divorce bill. While no details were given, the news if confirmed is the first bright spot in Brexit negotiations for PM Theresa May and suggests that two parties may be finally reaching some key compromises on the issues. Still, Brexit talks face an uphill test, especially given the key negotiating deadline of December 4th next week, and unless UK can offer palatable solutions on both the Northern Ireland border issue and on freedom of movement concerns, today enthusiasm may evaporate and GBPUSD could tumble towards 1.3000 once again. On t...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Great Graphic: US 2-Year Yield Rises Above Australia For First Time Since 2000

    The steady increase in the US two-year yield while the market unwinds rate hike expectations in Australia has pushed the US rate above Australia for the first time since late 2000. In the past month, the US two-year yield has risen by 15 bp, while Australia’s has fallen by 13 bp. But the narrowing of the spread, and now inversion, has been unfolding for the past six years.   Moreover, we suspect there is room for divergence to extend well into 2018. Australia’s case rate stands at 1.5%. With the central bank likely on hold for an extended period, the two-year yield can slip closer to the cash target rate. At the same time, the...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Sterling Soars After Britain, EU Agree On Brexit Divorce Bill: Telegraph

    The Telegraph is reporting that British and EU negotiators have reached a deal over the so-called ‘Brexit bill’, opening the door to a potential breakthrough in the talks this December. According to the report, that the final figure, which is deliberately being left open to interpretation, “will be between €45bn and €55bn, depending on how each side calculates the output from an agreed methodology.” Telegraph quotes sources on both sides who have confirmed that “an agreement-in-principle has now been reached” over the EU’s demand for a €60bn financial settlement ahead of a crucial lunch meeting next Monda...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Banks Again Defending Silver’s 200-Day Moving Average

    The Bullion Bank trading desks, which are routinely short thousands of metric tonnes of digital silver, are once again attempting to keep price below the 200-day moving average. And why is this so important to The Banks? For the most basic reasons of all… greed and profit. The only data available to measure the size of the Bank net short position in Comex silver comes from the corrupt and compromised CFTC. Though it seems useless to use CFTC-generated data, unfortunately, we have no other choice. To that end, as of the most recent reporting, we find Bank positions as follows: • As measured by the latest Commitment of Traders Report, t...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    October Exports Down 1% Imports Up 1.5%: Expect Trump To Howl

    The balance of trade deficit increased sharply in October with exports down and imports up. In October, the Census Bureau reported the trade deficit widened by 2.5%, with exports down 1.0% and imports up 1.5%. From a year ago, exports are up 5.5% and imports are up 7.1%. These numbers will subtract a couple ticks from fourth-quarter GDP estimates. They will also have Trump howling about trade deficits....
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Circle Of Crypto

    The world feels fairly surreal sometimes. I watch the relentless rise in price of bitcoin, ether, litecoin, and brethren, and feel it’s just a truly weird moment we’re living in. I’ve never seen assets rising 1000% of, in ether’s case, 5000% in a year. It’s crazy. Alongside this, I see exchanges being hacked on a regular basis – the latest being Bitfinex – and ICOs appearing and disappearing almost everyday – the latest being Configo (some sort of con anyway)  – and I feel a little confused. Or am I? Actually, I just had this idea recently that it’s the circle of crypto, a bit like the circle of life but with money. R...
    On November 28, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Most Thai Banks Have NPL-To-Net Loans Above The Global Average

    Four large Thai banks: KTB, BBL, KBANK, and SCB all have an NPL-to-net loans ratio above the world. KTB and BBL appear cheapest on a price-to-book basis, this is partially driven by higher NPLs, BBL is likely able to absorb those more easily. *NPL is Nonperforming loan. KKP=Kiatnakin Bank, CIMBT=CIMB Thai Bank, KTB=Krung Thai Bank, BBL=Bangkok Bank, KBANK=Kasikornbank, TMB=TMB Bank, SCB=Siam Commercial Bank, BAY=Bank of Ayudhya, LHBANK=LH Financial Group, TCAP=Thanachart Capital, TISCO=TISCO Financial Group....
    On November 28, 2017 / By