Latest Posts
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Finance 0
You Know It’s Late In The Cycle When The Yield Curve Starts Generating Headlines
The yield curve is one of those indicators that most people have heard of but few can explain. In part this is because it’s usually a non-issue, only becoming important enough to argue about during the final year of long expansions. Like now: Yield curve flattening maintains relentless momentum (MarketWarch) – The yield curve flattened this week after the Fed minutes suggested that the December rate increase was a near-certainty, even as senior central bankers held concerns about lackluster inflation. The yield curve refers to the line drawing out a bond’s yield and its respective maturities, with a flatter slope signifying weaker growt... -
Finance 0
Bitcoin Vs. Dot-Com Bubble: You Are Here
There have been no shortage of attempts to compare the meteoric rise of Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies more generally) to the dot-com boom/bust. Critics of the crypto craze will tell you that what we’re seeing in the space mirrors the euphoria that ultimately ended in tears in 2000. Proponents will argue that betting against Bitcoin is akin to betting against the internet – i.e. that the potential for widespread adoption is unlimited and no price is too high. As a quick aside: here are a few bullet points from a Tuesday panel discussion with Glenn Hutchins and Mike Novogratz (whose new “target” is $40,000): Hutchins says bitcoin i... -
Finance 0
Bitcoin Is Like The Tech Bubble: It Could Run Higher
Bitcoin Is Skyrocketing The biggest story of the day, which was on most investors’ minds, was the rally in bitcoin. The fact that this was such a major story even though most people in finance don’t have a large stake in the currency shows how remarkable the rally has been. As you can see from the chart below, bitcoin has rallied from $8,000 to near $10,000 in a few days. The cryptocurrency space now has a $300 billion market cap. If you were to have an equal weight portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds, where cryptocurrencies were a percentage of your equity portfolio based on their market cap, the weighting of the whole industry in a ... -
Finance 0
Cyber Monday Was Great, But Inventory Looks At More Than Online Holiday Shopping
As expected, Cyber Monday hit records all across the retail industry. According to Adobe Insights, sales recorded by online outlets, including those of traditional brick and mortar stores, hit $6.59 billion. That’s a record not just for a Cyber Monday but any single day in the internet’s two decades of mainstream usage. It was, Adobe said, a gain of 16.8% compared to last year. The analytics firm also estimates that online sales made last week on Black Friday were up 10% over 2016. Retailers have been quick to tout their beefed up virtual presence, and their results, as noted yesterday. That’s all well and good if it means consumers ar... -
Finance 0
Semiconductor ETFs Recoil On Morgan Stanley Warnings
The hot and the soaring semiconductor corner of the broad technology market had a rough ride on Nov 27. The decline came as Morgan Stanly raised concerns on soaring memory chip prices and downgraded a number of chipmakers including Western Digital (WDC – Free Report), Samsung Electronics, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM – Free Report). The dual tailwind of strong demand and high price has benefited the industry throughout the year and this trend now seems to be reversing. Morgan Stanley cautioned that the so-called “super-cycle” in chip demand may be coming to an end, and prices for memory chips will peak soon. As su... -
Finance 0
Politics And Public Banking
(Audio length 00:58:40) The excitement surrounding the inclusion of public banking in political campaigns is now shifting gears into the nitty-gritty process of educating and encouraging legislators and candidates to move forward. This week Ellen and Walt discuss some of these races and the issues that propel them, we talk with a NJ State legislator about whether the new governor there will be able to pursue his state bank agenda, and we uncover another new gubernatorial candidacy that may also drive for a public bank. Ellen’s guest Stephen Lendman returns to the show to reflect on the larger political and civic issues affected by our pri... -
Finance 0
UK & EU Agree On 45-55 Billion Divorce Bill, UK Denies – GBP Jumps
The UK has raised its Brexit divorce bill offer to a sum closer to the EU’s demands of 60 billion euros. According to a report in the Telegraph, the EU accepts this proposal and this will unlock the next phase of the negotiations, related to the future trade relationship. Update: the UK government denies the report. Nevertheless, the pound holds onto its higher ground. GBP/USD jumped from support at 13220 all the way to 1.3370 before returning to battle resistance at 1.3340. Support is at 1.3270. Here is a quote from the article: The Telegraph understands that the final figure, which is deliberately being left open to interpretation, wil... -
Finance 0
Out Of Money By December 12th – Social Security Partial Inflation Indexing Part 2
Most advice on long-term planning for retirement and Social Security benefits is based on the assumption that Social Security will fully keep up with inflation. As we are establishing in this series of analyses, the full inflation indexing of Social Security is a myth and there are major implications for the standard of living in retirement as well as the associated decisions with regard to both Social Security and investment planning. In this second analysis, we will use the actual historical data as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Social Security Administration in recent years, instead of using long-term average inflation... -
Finance 0
How Much Does A Tax Cut Cost?
People often speak of tax cuts using topsy-turvy lingo like this quotation from the Committee for a Responsible Budget: “the country currently spends $1.6 trillion per year on tax breaks.” Or, as The Hill claims: “GOP tax plan would cost $2.4 trillion.” Statements like these make it sound like a tax cut is something you have to buy — as in, you search Amazon.com for tax cuts, add it to your cart, and purchase it. Then your credit card is charged $2.4 trillion. This is very confusing and very common. With the Trump/Republican tax plan being discussed, this sort of language is everywhere. Taxes are revenue for the government colle... -
Finance 0
The Net Neutrality Controversy De-mystified
There has been a lot of dust kicked up lately in the public sphere around the impending rollback by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) of the net neutrality regulations. Mixed in this dust is a lot of misinformation and campaigning by the various interests. Below you will find my best shot at clearly describing the background, current situation and possible future outcomes. WHAT IS NET NEUTRALITY? Net neutrality is the principle that Internet service providers (ISPs) (think of the giants Verizon, AT&T and Comcast) must deliver all content at the same speed and cost, so the big guys (think Amazon, Google, and Facebook) and the sm...
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