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Swing Trading Strategy Report – Wednesday, November 29
My Swing Trading Approach First and foremost – manage the existing positions in the portfolio. If the opportunity arises to add more long exposure in the portfolio, I will do so, but there is a looming tax vote that could create some turmoil for the market if it doesn’t go according to plan. Indicators VIX – Divergence from market action. VIX was up 1.6% yesterday, despite the S&P 500 and Dow each rallying over 1%. T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day moving average): Huge move yesterday of 13%, sending the indicator up to 58%, and killing the potential rollover tendency it was previously exhibiting. Movin... -
Finance 0
We Are In The Most Dangerous Period In The Business Cycle
The European Commission said Wednesday that its Business Climate Indicator rose in November to hit its strongest since June 2007. The outlook for both production and export orders improved, indicating the economy is benefiting from the upswing in global demand. –Bloomberg News Why would I be writing about ‘danger’ when we are experiencing the first synchronized global economic upturn in over 8 years? It’s the business cycle. The last time I was this bullish on the global economy, it was 2009. And I was forced to defend my optimism because we were coming out of a deep, deep recession. And March 2009 was a great time to buy shares.... -
Finance 0
Pending Home Sales Rose Strongly In October
This morning the National Association of Realtors released the August data for their Pending Home Sales Index. Here is an excerpt from the latest press release: Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales in October were primarily driven higher by a big jump in the South, which saw a nice bounce back after hurricane-related disruptions in September. “Last month’s solid increase in contract signings were still not enough to keep activity from declining on an annual basis for the sixth time in seven months,” he said. “Home shoppers had better luck finding a home to buy in October, but slim pickings and consistently fast pr... -
Finance 0
E The Global Recovery Broadens Out And Gains Strong Momentum
“The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies.” (IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2017) The acceleration in the global economic growth rate which began in the second half of 2016 has co... -
Finance 0
Some Abbreviated But Important Thoughts On Housing
I posted this chart yesterday to my Twitter feed (@inflation_guy, or @inflation_guyPV through PremoSocial for some additional content), but didn’t have time to write very much about it. This is the Shiller 20-City Home Price Index year/year change (Source: Bloomberg). My observation was that when you take out the housing bubble, it looks more ominous. It’s actually really the bubble and bust, which makes the recent trend look uninteresting. This is what the chart looks like if you go further back like that. So it actually looks calm and stable, because the axis explodes to -20% to +20%. The volatility of recent years has caused us to forg... -
Finance 0
Billion Dollar Unicorns: HelloFresh Lists Successfully
According to research from Second Measure, the US meal kit market is worth $5 billion and is led by Blue Apron with a 57.5% market share. Early this month, Billion Dollar Unicorn HelloFresh , which has a market share of 28.4%, listed successfully on the Frankfurt exchange. While Blue Apron’s market share is plummeting, HelloFresh is on the rise. Photo Credit: SITS Girls/Flickr.com HelloFresh’s Offerings Berlin, Germany-based HelloFresh was set up by London Business School alumni Dominik Richter and Thomas Griesel in 2012. It began offering locally sourced and pre-portioned ingredients to help consumers prepare home-cooked meals each we... -
Finance 0
HH How To Position For Cyclical Recovery In Europe
A big storyline heading into 2018 is whether this year’s strong performance in European equities will continue in the year to come or if it was merely a flash in the pan for an otherwise dysfunctional economy. While there are potential headwinds for the recovery (namely, ever-present political risks and the challenge of negative interest rates for a banking system still confronting issues around deleveraging balance sheets while managing portfolios of nonperforming loans), there is also an argument that these risks are sufficiently priced in and this European rally is just getting underway. For over 11 years, WisdomTree pioneered a propr... -
Finance 0
Tax Cuts To Increase Debt And Share Buybacks, Not Jobs
The president has held fast to his pledge even as top executives’ comments have run counter to it for months. Instead of hiring more workers or raising their pay, many companies say they’ll first increase dividends or buy back their own shares.See Trump’s tax promises undercut by CEO’s plans to reward shareholders. The last thing the economy or social stability needs at this point is more debt and more share buybacks. ... -
Finance 0
Bitcoin The False God
Some folks did not take Jack Bogle’s advice. On Tuesday, the father of indexing delivered a pretty straightforward assessment of Bitcoin. “There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it,” Bogle said, in response to a question at at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York. In case that was in anyway unclear, he continued: “Avoid bitcoin like the plague. Did I make myself clear?” Well actually, no Jack. No, you did not “make yourself clear.” Because this (block)chain of fools not only drove Bitcoin through $10,000 late Tuesday, but actually “succeede... -
Finance 0
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Wednesday, November 29
WTI Crude Oil With today being the Crude Oil Inventories announcement in the United States, likely that we will see a significant amount of volatility. We had initially fallen on Tuesday, but turned around to form a bit of a hammer. A break above the top of the candle for the day should send this market looking for the $59 level, and then possibly the $60 level if the inventory number is bullish enough. At the same time, there are concerns as to whether OPEC will be able to extend a production cut deal, and if they cannot, that could be a very negative headline event in this market. We have the potential for a “one-two punch” today, but w...
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