The euro bounced off its lows of 1.1817 to end the day in positive territory. The latest economic reports were mixed with German consumer prices rising in November, Eurozone business confidence ticking upwards but industrial and services confidence fell short of expectations. Even so, all of these represented improvements in the Eurozone economy. The latest comments from ECB officials were also relatively positive with Bundesbank President Weidmann saying the central bank’s growth outlook could be raised given strong data. He also expressed his skepticism over the need for QE. Vice President Constancio felt that the euro area is much more r...
My Thanksgiving was full of good cheer, as I expected. The food followed the usual script: The dark meat was better than the white… the stuffing was better than the mashed potatoes… and the pies were amazingly good. What was different? A new topic dominated the conversation. Yep, you guessed it: cryptocurrency. I sat next to Johnny, one of my favorite people and a really smart dude. I don’t see him too often. I live in Maryland and he lives in Virginia. He commutes to Texas every week, working for a global energy company. His specialty is oil. This week he’s in London. Next week, who knows? We began talking oil, then North Sea oil, th...
You’ve heard it a thousand times: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Yet, past performance is all we have to forecast the future. This is true everywhere. If you play fantasy football, you make decisions for next weekend based on past performance. When hiring or promoting someone, managers make decisions based on past performance. So, it makes sense to consider the past when thinking about the future of the stock market and how to invest your money. I use several mathematical tools based on the past to forecast the direction of price moves. And my tools tell me 2018 could be a challenging market environment. My 201...
Janet Yellen appeared before Congress today. She ducked a question on taxes and asked Congress for pro-growth policies. Outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen Received a Warm Reception at what will be her last appearance before Congress at the Fed’s semiannual report to Congress on monetary policy. In her testimony on Current Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, Yellen expressed concerns about slow growth, inflation, and wages. More Transitory Nonsense Yellen repeated her message that “recent lower readings on inflation likely reflect transitory factors.” Her definition of recent must mean five years because that is how long th...
The tax “reform” currently being discussed in Washington is mostly a political exercise for politicians who can use the process to extract more campaign contributions from supporters, and punish non-supporters. The actual tax burden imposed on Americans overall will change little. The proposed elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) is an excellent illustration of how the tax reform is really about playing political games. Forever in pursuit of “revenue neutral” tax reform, the GOP is simply turning to the elimination of the SALT deduction so it can raise federal revenues, and this allow for a t...
Last night, Litecoin’s Price touched and shortly crossed above 100 USD hence achieving Investinghaven’s price target! It all started in July when we wrote our first Litecoin price forecast. Back then, we set a 60 USD price target for LTC that was met shortly after. We stressed in that Litecoin price forecast.the fact that in order to see more upside in Litecoin, the Altcoin will need to set itself apart from the sea of Altcoins out there. Shorty after, we shared our updated litecoin price forecast to 100 USD, and provided in the same article the 3 reasons why we believe so. Two months ago, LTC reached 66 USD. Although it was a failed...
Facebook stock (FB) is one of the casualties of a tech sell-off on Wednesday that so far has also claimed Netflix, Apple, Alphabet and even the poster child of retail, Amazon. However, analysts likely aren’t going to abandon Facebook or any of the other tech giants any time soon, even as investors rotate into other sectors such as financials and telecom. joshborup / Pixabay Facebook’s ad load still on the decline In a note this week, Barclays analyst Ross Sandler offered a deep dive into the ongoing pricing trends at Facebook marked by the declining ad load and rising cost per thousand impressions. One of the key concerns many investor...
President Trump will reshape the Federal Reserve. What does it mean for the gold market? There are currently two big unknowns widely discussed by the financial analysts and investors. The first one are the prospects of tax reform. This week all eyes are on Capitol Hill, as the Senate is expected to vote on the tax bill. If the reform does not pass, the risky asset will decline, while gold will shine. But if the bill passes, we could see a return of the so-called Trump trade, which could be negative for the gold market. The second big question mark is the future stance of the Fed. After Yellen’s resignation from the Board of Governors (she c...
Tax Reform Pushes Stocks Higher The stock market had a huge day on Tuesday as the Dow had its 61st record high of 2017. The Dow was up 1.09% and the Russell 2000 was up 1.53%. The S&P 500 was up 0.98%. It has been above its 200-day moving average for 358 days which is the 4th longest streak since 1957. The 2nd and 3rd longest streaks were 385 days, meaning a Santa Clause rally could help make this the best rally since the 475-day streak from 2012 to 2014. To get an idea how far volatility has fallen, the chart below shows a 6-month rolling window of days where the VIX was below 10. As you can see, there has been over 40 days with the V...
“Bitcoin is capitalism, distilled. You should love it!” – Adam Ludwin I’ve tried to remain pretty balanced in my view on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. Back in 2013, I said Bitcoin was definitely money and that the ideological hatred of it was irrational. This monetary view is consistent with the general view I have on cryptos as a part of someone’s portfolio – as I said yesterday, no one really knows how this will play out so you need to be extremely cautious and avoid taking recklessly ideological positions in either direction. As a monetary nerd, I am much more interested in the application of cryptocurrencies tha...