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Q3 Real GDP Per Capita: 2.53% Versus The 3.30% Headline Real GDP
The Second Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 3.3% (3.30% to two decimals), up from 3.1% in the Third Estimate of Q2 GDP. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.53% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we’ve chained in today’s dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in t... -
Finance 0
Japanification Denial
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised upward from a seasonally-adjusted annual growth rate of 2.945% to 3.243%. For the first time since the middle of 2014, GDP appears to have advanced (subject to further revisions) at a better than 3% rate for two consecutive quarters. That level of growth used to be commonplace, even something of an economic floor, but now is celebrated as an achievement given the rarity of its occurrence. And even when compared to prior intermittent upswings, GDP still registers more trouble than positives. Comparing the middle quarters of 2017 with the middle quarters of 2014 shows just how little growth is actually t... -
Finance 0
Liquidity And Volatility – A Direct Linkage
Written by John Davi, Astoria Portfolio Advisors Are you surprised by VIX sub 10? You shouldn’t be. There is a direct linkage between liquidity and volatility as shown in the chart below. Source: Bloomberg, Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. This year, we have seen $2.2 trillion USD in central bank balance sheet expansion globally (approx. 15% of the aggregate balance sheet across the ECB, BOJ, and Fed). Right now, capital markets are swimming in an ocean of liquidity thanks to central banks flooding the system. With low levels of economic uncertainty, low levels of earnings dispersion, and ample liquidity, it shouldn’t surprise investo... -
Finance 0
Myth Busting: Stock Correlations And Active Investment Opportunities
Many investors, investment professionals, and pundits make comments regarding the relationship between stock correlations and opportunities for active stock pickers. For example, here is a recent example from the Financial Times: Correlation crash clears the way for stockpickers. The basic (albeit flawed) intuition behind the statement is that when correlations are low, the variation in returns is high, and therefore, stock pickers have an easier time differentiating themselves. These arguments appear intuitive. So they must be true, right? Not exactly. I will show that stocks can be perfectly correlated and have massive return variability... -
Finance 0
4 Stocks To Gain Even If OPEC Decides Against Deal Extension
The scheduled meeting of OPEC members with non-OPEC crude exporters for the third time in Vienna, Austria, is dominating the headlines. It should provide an answer to the million-dollar question — will oil continue to trade above $55 a barrel? The landmark production-cut accord, first signed in late 2016, helped oil cross the $50-a-barrel mark. After the deal, with the advancement of crude, major energy players regained financial strength and have been rewarding shareholders with healthy dividends. OPEC Meeting On Nov 30, OPEC members will meet non-OPEC players to decide on an extension of the crude production cut accord beyond the first... -
Finance 0
Roku Enters Rare Air As Bullish Momentum Continues
The streaming platform Roku (ROKU) has been on quite a ride this month. After posting robust earnings on the 9th, volume levels were off the charts. It gapped higher the next day and has not looked back. Many traders were caught short as a massive squeeze vaulted the stock 250% in just four short days. That is an amazing run, and it may just be getting started. Relative strength is particularly good, but the action on Monday was quite notable. The stock was strong all day long and nearly closed on the highs of the session. Turnover was also brisk. Look for this stock to trade much higher over the coming days and follow the path of the orange... -
Finance 0
Hot Options Report For End Of Day – Wednesday, Nov. 29
Top tickers for end of day: BAC, AAPL.... -
Finance 0
Express Scripts Sells Unit With Ties To Mallinckrodt’s Acthar
Mallinckrodt’s (MNK) Acthar is one of the country’s most-expensive drugs and Express Scripts (ESRX) has provided distribution muscle for the drug. That appears to be changing, however. Monday Express Scripts announced it was selling United BioSource, a unit tied to helping distribute Acthar: Express Scripts Holding Co. is trimming some of its ties to a $35,000-a-vial medicine made by Mallinckrodt Plc by finding a private-equity buyer for its unit that helps patients access some high-priced drugs. Avista Capital Partners will buy Express Scripts’ United BioSource division, the firms said in a statement. United BioSource’s websi... -
Finance 0
Is Another Distribution Cut Coming For Plains All American?
Last year, I reviewed the dividend safety of Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA). At the time, I gave the stock an F because it did not generate enough distributable cash flow (DCF) to cover its dividend. Last month, Plains All American slashed its dividend 45%. One of the important reasons I gave it an F was that the coverage ratio was less than 1, meaning that it was paying more in distributions than it was generating in DCF. The comparison of DCF to distributions paid is called the coverage ratio. If a company had $100 million in DCF and paid out $100 million in distributions, the coverage ratio would be 1. If DCF was $150 million... -
Finance 0
Monsters Of Tech Crack, Will Markets Follow?
The rotation game continues as tech stocks tumble and money flows into financials. In this video update let’s analyze the key factors in this market that will tell us what to expect next. Video Length: 00:09:57...
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