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Finance 0
Euro-Area Inflation Rises Less Than Expected; Unemployment At 8-Year Low
Prices in the Euro-area remains below expectation in November, even though the economy has managed to sustain growth in recent times. It is yet to substantially pressure prices. The flash consumer price index which measures inflation climbed from 1.4 percent in October to 1.5 percent in November, according to European Union Statistics office. This was lower than the 1.6 percent expected by most economists but higher than the 1.4 percent recorded in October. Core inflation which excludes volatile food and energy rose 0.9 percent, same as in October. Suggesting that rising commodity prices is aiding headline inflation, and a failure to extend ... -
Finance 0
Above The 40 – Bullish Divergence Powers Through A Wicked Rotation
AT40 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 59.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 10.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary “Time is ticking away for the bears and sellers as the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is typically a very mild, even bullish, period for the stock market.” This is what I said in the last Above the 40 post for November 17th when I described a bullish divergence that signaled more gains ahead. That bullish divergence did indeed resolve to the upside as the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time high this week. ... -
Finance 0
US Dollar Comes Back Bid, But Brexit Hopes Underpin Sterling
The US dollar is broadly firmer. The rise in US yields yesterday has seen the greenback extend its recovery against the yen. It briefly pushed through JPY112.40, after dipping below JPY111.00 at the start of the week, for the first time since mid-September. Since the end of last week, been capped at the 200-day moving average against the yen, found near JPY111.70, but yesterday it pushed past. There are nearly $1 bln of options struck between JPY112.20-JPY112.65. The euro was initially firmed in Asia but ran out of steam in front of yesterday’s high near $1.1880. Although there was some positive economic news, like the larger than expe... -
Finance 0
BTC/USD Forex Signal – Thursday, Nov. 30
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as although there was bullish price action at $9362.32, the entry would not have been before 5pm New York time. Today’s BTC/USD Signals Risk 1.00% per trade. Trades must be taken before 5pm New York time today only. Long Trades Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9727.68, or $9362.32. Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low. Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run. The... -
Finance 0
How Much Credit Does Trump Deserve For Economic Growth?
US economic growth was revised up to a 3.3% pace in yesterday second GDP estimate for the third quarter – the strongest quarterly rise in three years. Fourth-quarter estimates look upbeat too, holding out the possibility that output will rise by 3%-plus for three quarters in a row. If the Q4 prediction is correct, the US will post its best cumulative three-month advance since the 2014:Q3-2015:Q1 run. The firmer pace of growth is confounding and in some cases disturbing Trump’s political opponents. The political-minded frustration is understandable since a strong economy expands the President’s influence, validates his policy agenda,... -
Finance 0
Crude Oil Prices May Struggle Even As OPEC, Allies Extend Cuts
Crude oil prices are firmly focused on the outcome of an OPEC meeting getting underway in Vienna. The cartel and a group of like-minded producers are expected to announce the extension of an output cut scheme expiring in March. Baseline expectations envision prolonging the effort for nine months. That much may be in the price already, meaning it is unlikely to be sufficient to drive prices meaningfully higher. Setting out output caps for Nigeria and Libya – OPEC members previously exempt from the accord – and nailing down an exit strategy to avoid a sudden output spike may be of greater interest. Early comments from the sidelines o... -
Finance 0
EURUSD: Trend Line Broken
Previous: On Wednesday the 29th of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly up. Buyers recovered all their intraday losses during the American session after the British pound made some gains. The pound was boosted by the news that the UK had reached a deal with Brussels “in principle” regarding the EU divorce bill. The euro’s rise was held up by a rise in US bond yields as well as increased caution from traders with the crucial Senate vote on tax reform approaching. In yesterday’s speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the strengthening of the US economy would ensure the need for continued interest rate hikes. This... -
Finance 0
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Thursday, Nov. 30
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market had a volatile session as one would expect, because we got the Crude Oil Inventories announcement. While the headline number was very bullish, the distillate numbers were a very mixed picture, and of course the fact that a lot of the headline number was due to Thanksgiving Day driving, it’s likely that traders were starting to focus almost immediately on OPEC and the hype surrounding the idea of them possibly cutting production. At this point, it looks less likely that it once did, so it’s possible we may see more negativity. From the technical analysis point of view, we have pulled back towards the ... -
Finance 0
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI): Bireme Capital Opens New Position In Q3
Bireme Capital recently released its Q3 investor letter (you can download a copy here) in which the hedge fund discussed its investment thesis on Old Republic International Corporation (NYSE:ORI) and other companies. Bireme Capital opened a new position in the insurance provider during the third quarter. Here are the fund’s comments about Old Republic: Old Republic provides several distinct types of insurance: title, worker’s compensation, commercial auto, and others. In their title insurance business, they are the third or fourth largest provider in an oligopoly market that is just starting to fully recover from the Great Recessi... -
Finance 0
EUR/USD Continuation Of The Rooftop Pattern Below 1.1800
The EUR/USD has formed a huge bearish rooftop pattern with a clear support within 1.1810-00 zone. 1.1865-85 is the POC zone where now moment sellers might be waiting for. Month-end demand can usually be volatile and EUR/USD seem to be offered within the POC zone. Break below 1.1800 and the pair could target 1.1775 and 1.1750. For counter-trend trades, watch for reversal patterns and/or regular bullish divergence only IF 1.1800 zone holds. W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support) W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance) W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance) D H4 – Dail...
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