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  • Finance 0

    Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 2K

    Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending November 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 239,000 to 240,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 239,750 to 240,000. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands. [See full report] Today’s seasonally adjusted 238K new claims, down 2K f...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Buy Or Sell? A Question Of Risk Management

    Whether you ride this bull market or stay on the sidelines is not a matter of brilliance, but of risk management. To illustrate, we look at lessons to be learned from the “greatest predictor” of market returns (hint: it isn’t). Nobody knows whether the market is going to plunge next year, but anyone who fears that it might be well served taking that into account, as staying fully invested presumably implies taking on more risk than one is comfortable with. That said, the investment industry is geared towards talking you out of that fear; after all, markets “always go up in the long run”, don’t they? Truth be told, none of us has a...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    S&P 500 Fluctuates As Technology Stocks Sell-Off

    Briefly: Intraday trade: Our Wednesday’s intraday trading outlook was neutral. It proved accurate because the S&P 500 index lost 0.03%, following slightly higher opening of the trading session. The market broke above its short-term consolidation on Tuesday. We still can see negative technical divergences along with medium-term overbought conditions. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Therefore, we prefer to be out of the market today, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. Our intraday outlook is neutral today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral: Intraday outlook (ne...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD And GBP/USD Forecast – Thursday, Nov. 30

    EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair had a volatile session during the trading session on Wednesday but then turned right back around. Ultimately, we ended up forming a shooting star on the daily candle, and I think this shows that we are going to continue to be choppy in general, but I still believe that there is a significant amount of buying pressure underneath. This will be especially true if the US Congress can’t get the tax bill together, and that is a very distinct possibility with the ridiculous a lack of work ethic. If we can break above the top of the shooting star, that’s a sign that we go much higher. Alternately, if we break down below t...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Beginners Foray Into (Part-Time) Systematic Trading

    Audio Length: 01:04:36 Kory Hoang is not a veteran trader—he’s not someone who has been doing this 10-20 years. He’s someone who has been doing this for only a few years, yet he’s begun to make decent gains on his trading capital. Kory is also not a full-time trader …well, at the time of recording this—a few weeks ago—he wasn’t! Kory was a private equity analyst for Pitchbook, who traded on the side. But he’s since informed me that he’s handed in his notice and taken the leap to focus on trading (plus a couple startup projects). In terms of how he trades; Kory is a retail systematic trader. He’s running numerous algorith...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Morning Call For Thursday, Nov. 30

    OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.26%) this morning are up +0.32% on strength in energy stocks with Jan WTI crude oil (CLF18 +0.98%) up +0.92% after all OPEC members and Russia agreed that crude production cuts should be extended until the end of 2018. European stocks are up +0.53% and found support on strength in the European economy after the Eurozone Oct unemployment rate fell -0.1 to an 8-3/4-year low of 8.8%. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan +0.57%, Hong Kong -1.51%, China -0.62%, Taiwan -1.43%, Australia -0.69%, Singapore -0.16%, South Korea -1.64%, India -1.35%. Contagion from Wednesday’s rout in U....
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    OPEC: Now What?

    Despite some made up drama that some people like to make up for these OPEC meetings, the reality is that OPEC and Non-Opec will extend production cuts until the end of the year. OPEC is on track to achieve the goal of totally erasing the global overhang of oil despite doubts from many and may cause a global supply deficit faster than people think. Instead of worrying about an extension of production cuts, the market and OPEC are now focusing on an exit strategy that will respond to a tight oil market ahead. In the old days, in past production cut deals, it was easy, the cartel would just start cheating on production when demand increased. Yet...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC The Mean Reverting History Of Profit Growth

    As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important. While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run, valuation levels have everything to do with future returns. Yesterday, Doug Kass penned an interesting note on the current market advance: “Consistently advancing and uninterrupted rising stock prices have a way of spreading fallacious arguments not grounded in fact. Here are some recent examples of that meme — namely, of an earnings-driven market. This is the new meme, but it increasingly resembles ‘Group Stink.’ Contrary to the pablum de...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    OPEC Agrees To Extend Oil Supply Cuts Until End Of 2018: Bloomberg

    With OPEC delegates sequestered in a Vienna conference room, as they negotiate the proposed 6-9 month production cut extension, at least one appears to be leaking the decision process to media outlets, because moments ago Bloomberg reported that OPEC ministers have agreed to extend their production cuts until the end of 2018 – agreeing with the Saudi-proposed 9 month extension – and discussions have now moved on to the mechanism that will be used to review the agreement in the middle of the year. OPEC AGREES TO EXTEND OIL SUPPLY CUTS TO END OF 2018: DELEGATE OPEC TALKS MOVED ON TO DETAILS OF MID-YEAR REVIEW: DELEGATE These were so...
    On November 30, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    AUD/USD Stabilizing Amid Positive Australian, Chinese Data

    The Australian dollar was being carried down by the strength of the US dollar. The greenback enjoyed an upgrade to GDP, hopes for an approval on a tax cut, and also a relatively positive speech from Janet Yellen. Fortunately for the Aussie, it had some better-than-expected data of its own. Here are the key figures to watch out for: Captial expenditure increased by 1% in Q3, as expected. However, the figure for Q2 was revised up from 0.8% to 1.1%. The investment levels are closely watched by the RBA. Australian building approvals increased by 0.9% against a drop of 0.9% that was expected. Year over year, building consents are up by 18.4%. Pr...
    On November 30, 2017 / By