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October 2017 Median Household Income
Median household income in the U.S. rose to $58,643 in October 2017, an increase of 0.2% from our September 2017 estimate of $58,523. The following chart shows our estimates for the trends for both nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted median household income (blue) from January 2000 through September 2017. In nominal terms, the most recent trend for median household income in the U.S. continues to rise steadily as it has throughout 2017, after having been flat in the latter half of 2016. After adjusting the nominal household income estimates to be in terms of constant October 2017 U.S. dollars, however, we find an uptick in median household... -
Finance 0
How To Trade Like A Gambler
In the world of gambling and trading, Ed Thorpe is a legend. He is the man who essentially perfected card counting and managed to beat a roulette table with the help of the first handheld computer ever invented. Then he moved on to Wall Street starting one of the earliest quant funds in the business and pioneering fields like convertible arbitrage. He wrote several books, including Beat the Dealer, all of which are worth reading for their entertainment value alone. But his greatest contribution to the world of trading is popularizing the Kelly Criterion which is essentially a formula for optimal bet size. The mathematics for the Kelly Criteri... -
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Bitcoin Rockets Higher, Then Crashes Lower, Then Repeats
The Bitcoin markets are in utter turmoil at the moment – the cryptocurrency that has become the envy of all speculative assets, possibly one of the greatest in modern history, is experiencing extreme volatility. Long familiar with extreme ups and downs, Bitcoin has a history of moving higher rapidly, and also crashing suddenly. These past 24 hours appear to be encompassing both of these directions as the markets engage in an active game of tug of war, with billions of dollars on the line. Those who have only recently gotten on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, buying into the recent parabolic rise of Bitcoin, have to be vomiting in dis... -
Finance 0
For The Average Investor, The Bull Market Just Started
Average is difficult to define. Most of us believe we are above average at everyday tasks like driving. But math says many of us are wrong since only half of us can truly be better than average. That same math tells us something important about investors: Half of investors must attain results that are below average. The problem we face is knowing what average is. Well, the index designed to capture what the average investment portfolio earns is the Value Line Geometric Index (VLG). This index is equal-weighted, which avoids the problems of weighting we see in other indexes. For example, the S&P 500 assigns more weight to stocks that perfo... -
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5 Top-Performing Stocks Of The Top ETF Of November
The overlooked Deep Value ETF (DVP – Free Report), which carries an unfavorable Zacks ETF Rank #5 (Strong Sell) with a High-risk outlook, emerged as the best-performing ETF of November. It gained 11.6%. Most of the gains came in the first half as concerns over the delay in implementation of corporate tax cuts and the sell-off in high yield bonds made investors jittery, triggering the demand for value stocks. Additionally, the recent technology rout and North Korea new missile tests led to a further increase in demand. Honing in on value securities ensures a safety net for investors as it includes stocks with strong fundamentals – e... -
Finance 0
Short Take On Bitcoins
I stopped by Bloomberg near midday to talk with Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn. We talked about many macro issues, but this clip that Bloomberg provided covers is the one topic that has overshadowed the big rally in US equities, tax reform and Matt Lauer: Bitcoins. In this two minute clip, I mention that despite Bitcoins capturing the headlines, most Americans are not and cannot be involved. Consider, I said, that the median household income in the US is $45-$50k a year. Can it really afford to buy a Bitcoin? Yes, they don’t have to buy a full coin, but as various reports show, many households are living paycheck to paycheck, and have l... -
Finance 0
Stocks Hits New Highs But Tax Cut Critical To Bull Market
The Trump economy is cracking—GDP growth is on track to top 3% for three quarters running. We haven’t seen that since 2004, and the Dow Jones average has just pierced 24,000. Privates businesses are optimistic and poised to invest with passage of the tax cuts. They have broken free from the Obama era pessimism about free markets and capitalism. This has big consequences for ordinary investors. Even with stocks up overall more than 20% this year, this is no time to sell. Here is a broader look at the economy and what it means for you. In the new millennia, the U.S. and global economies have undergone radical change. Bellwether companies li... -
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3 Buy-Ranked Tech Stocks That Soared This Month
Technology stocks are rebounding after a sector-wide selloff Wednesday, suggesting that tech’s strong rally still has some life left in it. The tech sector has dominated Wall Street for the majority of 2017, and as we look at the year’s highest-flying stocks, most of the recognizable names are dominant and innovative technology brands. Considering the current state of the world, tech’s leadership makes sense. Cloud computing and the Internet of Things have already revolutionized our everyday life, and now we are on the cusp of artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicle revolutions that could redefine what it means to be human. In re... -
Finance 0
Amazon Versus The World
PETERBOROUGH, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 15: A close-up of a packaged Amazon Prime item in the Amazon Fulfilment centre on November 15, 2017 in Peterborough, England. A report in the US has suggested that over half of all online purchases this Christmas will be made with Amazon. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images) With Black Friday, pre Back Friday and Cyber Monday in the books?, we all know about how e-commerce is swamping traditional brick-and-mortar retailing. To be fair, it’s not as if malls and stores have been empty — they haven’t been. But we know where the business is moving. So do we just buy Amazon and call it a day? Look Up An... -
Finance 0
Updating The 3 Amigos Of The Macro
Okay, so the theme is that on the macro 3 events may come together to signal a big climax, leading to change. Those Amigos are… Stocks complete their rise vs. gold. 10yr & 30yr yields hit upside targets (and limitation points) around 2.9% & 3.3%, respectively. The yield curve finishes flattening (at least) and turns to steepening (at most). We use the big picture graphic (a bit dated now) for cartoonish illustration purposes. This shows global and US stocks retracing the former bear market vs. gold, the 30yr yield Continuum™ and the yield curve. Today, let’s take a daily view of stocks vs. gold and update the big pictures of the...
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