We keep returning to the subject of Australia and the growing signs that its bubble economy is bursting. Earlier this month, we discussed how the world’s longest-running bull market – 55 years – in Australian house prices appears to have come to an end. We followed this up with “Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards” in which Matt Barrie and Craig Tindale described how Australia’s three-decades-long economic expansion had mostly been the result of “dumb luck”. As a whole, the Australian economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a mining bubble, built on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a...
USDCAD extended its upside movement from 1.2672 to as high as 1.2909. Further rise to test 1.2916 resistance would likely be seen. A breakout of this level could signal resumption of the longer term uptrend from 1.2061 (Sep 8 low), then the following upside movement could take price to 1.3100 area. Near-term support is at 1.2836, only break below this level could bring price back towards 1.2666....
Gold prices fell $9.14 an ounce on Thursday, weighed down by recent gains in stocks. The precious metal extended its losses after the support of the $1279.80-$1278.60 area, the confluence of a horizontal support and a short-term bullish trend line, was broken. XAU/USD is currently trading at $1274.12, slightly lower than the opening price of $1274.35. The market is trying to hold above the 1274 level, but the short-term charts are bearish. Prices are below the Ichimoku clouds on both the daily and the 4-hourly charts. If XAU/USD can’t stay above 1274, it is likely that the market will revisit 1271. A break below yesterday’s low of $1270.2...
With all the focus on the unemployment rate, and therefore wages, Economists have been given the luxury (of sorts) of not having to answer for a larger, more basic incongruity. At 4.1% unemployment, supposedly, competition for workers given the scarcity of them who are unattached (low or no slack) should be driving up pay rates. Wages, however, aren’t the only measure of possible demand for work. There are, obviously, two components in pay – the rate per unit as well as the number of units (usually condensed into a per hour basis for economic statistics). If there was indeed heavy competition for labor due to a rolling economy, then emplo...
The BEA’s income and outlays report shows Real Disposable Income is up 1.6% from a year ago. Spending is up 2.6%. The BEA’s Income and Outlays Report shows consumers have been tapping savings all year to support purchases. Consumers spent 2.6% more than a year ago. Incomes are up only 1.6% from a year ago. That pattern has repeated every month in the above table. Real Disposable Income Savings Rate The numbers reflect averages. Those on the low end of the economic scale spend every penny they make, and then some. In a related article, also consider Hurricane Impacts Abate: Real Income +0.3%, PCE +0.1%, Inflation +0.1%....
Friday’s stock picks: Take a look at three trading ideas to prep you for the next trading session. Long 58.com (WUBA) Long RSP Permian (RSP) Short Allegheny Technologies (ATI)...
Friday’s stock picks: Take a look at three trading ideas to prep you for the next trading session. Long 58.com (WUBA) Long RSP Permian (RSP) Short Allegheny Technologies (ATI)...
Euro/dollar is rising once again, holding its ground above 1.19. There are reasons for optimism if we look at the German GDP data as well as other figures. What’s next for the ECB? Here is the view from CIBC: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses its EUR/USD outlook going into 2018, from the ECB policy front, and the flows perspective. “We expect the Governing Council to at least sound more hawkish by early 2018. Assuming political risks don’t materialize, that should gradually move the needle on both longer-term rates and the currency. Widespread negative yields have prevented many key investors...
Asian stock markets are trading mixed today. The Shanghai Composite is lower by 0.20% while the Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 is trading flat. On the Wall Street, Thursday session closed with huge gains as the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 24,000 landmark for the first time and the S&P 500 also reached new record closing highs. Back home, India share markets have opened the day on a firm note after India’s GDP growth quickened to 6.3% in the September quarter, up from a three-year low of 5.7% in the June quarter. The BSE Sensex is trading higher by 115 points while the NSE Nifty is trading higher by 32 points....
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market was very noisy during the trading session on Thursday, as we bounced around the $57.50 level. This is a market that continues to be very choppy, as there are a lot of issues with this market. The OPEC production cuts are being extended, but quite frankly the same time it looks as if the markets get a little too bullish from here, there will be plenty of American drillers willing to jump into the market and supply at this high evaluation. I believe that the $55 level underneath is massively supportive, and I think that any pullback at this point will probably find buyers there. Alternately, if we break ab...