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  • Finance 0

    S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update – Friday, Dec. 1

    This indicator, taken with the CAB has been perfection since “Davidson” first introduced us to the Index in early 2009. Regarding today’s warning by Goldman “Davidson says” So many misperceptions on valuation analysis, where could one possibly begin? I see the Shiller C.A.P.E. P/E as part of the mix which is what is likely driving the analysis to find other measures. No one uses fundamentals even though they all claim they are ‘experts and know ‘valuation’. It is what it is. The 2000 SP500 peak over-valuation of equities ran to 130% of the Value Investor Index. With so much inexperienced capital in US fixed income from China a...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Perspective On Secular Bull And Bear Markets – Friday, Dec. 1

    Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, over eight years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes. Let’s examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted series is the pattern of long-term alternations between uptrends and downtrends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus ...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    November 2017; ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Unchanged

    ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indices are indicating modest growth six months from today. Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index: Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth): Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 146.7 from 146.3, leaving updated WLI growth virtually unchanged at 2.6%....
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Emerging Markets: What Changed – Friday, December 1

    (from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)  Bank of Korea hiked rates by 25 bp to 1.50%, the first hike in six years. Egypt central bank lifted the last remaining currency controls. S&P cut South Africa’s foreign currency rating one notch to BB with stable outlook. Turkey President Erdogan was implicated in an alleged plot to help Iran evade US sanctions. Moody’s upgraded Argentina one notch to B2 with stable outlook. The IMF approved a new $88 bln Flexible Credit Line (FCL) for Mexico. Mexico shook up its economic team. Brazil press is reporting that the pension reform vote may be delayed to 2018 due to lack of support. In the EM equity space...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    5 Of The Most Efficient Stocks To Boost Your Portfolio

    Companies with favorable efficiency levels are likely to be on investors’ radar irrespective of market conditions. This is because a company with a favorable efficiency level is expected to provide impressive returns as it is believed to be positively correlated with its price performance. Key Ratios to Identify Efficiency Sometimes it becomes difficult to measure the efficiency level of a company. This is the reason why one must consider popular efficiency ratios while selecting stocks. These efficiency ratios are: Inventory Turnover: The ratio of 12-month cost of goods sold (COGS) to a four-quarter average inventory is considered one of ...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    What Gives Cryptocurrencies Their Value

    The value of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, just like any other kind of money, comes fundamentally from what you can do with it. As a follow up to What Backs Bitcoin, I want to dig into that value. The idea, which comes from Austrian economist Carl Menger, is that just as a shovel’s value comes from its ability to dig, a currency’s value comes from its ability to help you do two things: transactions and savings. Think of transactions as the money you carry in your wallet or checking account and savings as the rest of what you have in the bank or buried in the yard. It’s worth mentioning here that that vast majority of money demand is i...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    VIX Options Trading Spikes On Mueller’s ‘Monkey Wrench’

    Well, market participants are scrambling around on Friday in a futile effort to try and determine how to handicap the Flynn bombshell while simultaneously trading the tax news. “The [Flynn] news doesn’t impact the future of tax legislation,” KBW’s Brian Gardner insists in note out this morning, adding that “Flynn [will have] little, if any, impact on policy, especially in the short term, with the tax bill likely on track to pass the Senate, regardless of Flynn outcome.” Gardner also contends that irrespective of what happens with Flynn, the political calculus around deregulation will remain unchanged next year. That’s probably ...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Why I Would (Reluctantly) Vote Yes On The Tax Plan

    At the risk of discrediting this article before it even begins I am going to pretend that I am an Independent Senator in the USA considering the current GOP tax plan. If you’re still reading – in my perfect world a sweeping tax plan includes many of the no-brainer policies that I’ve discussed in the past. This would include a full payroll tax cut and an increase in certain types of secondary market “investments” like capital gains and dividends. This would give every working American a tax break. But that’s not happening so let’s move on. Also, we need to accept an important point: No one should be surprised that a Republican ...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    ISM Manufacturing Index: Business Conditions Expanded In November

    Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for November. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percent from 58.7 the previous month. Today’s headline number was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 58.4 percent. Here is the key analysis from the report: The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The November PMI® registered 58.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the October reading of 58.7 percen...
    On December 1, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Flynn Against Trump: Can EUR/USD Reach 1.20? Levels

    Former Trump confidant Michael Flynn has turned against the President and this is rattling markets. Stocks, bond yields, and the dollar are falling quite a bit. Flynn has agreed to testify against Trump and according to the reports, he will say that Trump knew about his dealings with Russia just before the President was inaugurated. This comes at a critical time: just as Republican lawmakers were getting ready to pass a major tax bill, something that had helped the greenback so far this week. For EUR/USD, this means a bounce from the lows. So far this week, everything went in favor of the dollar and against the euro. The bombshell from ...
    On December 1, 2017 / By