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Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – Copping A Plea, Tax ‘Reform’, Non-Farm Payrolls
I was tempted to title this Red, White, And Screwed, borrowing a phrase from comedian Lewis Black. Alas, I am not worthy. The markets tanked around 11 AM on the news that Michael Flynn is copping a plea to lying to the FBI as part of a deal that will have him providing testimony against peers and higher in the Trump Administration. The markets then proceeded to claw back most of their losses on news that the GOP ‘tax reform’ appears to be able to obtain the sufficient votes in the Senate to pass. The two bills, from the House and the Senate, would then have to be reconciled in conference. I spent the better part of the day help... -
Finance 0
Two Measures Of Inflation And Fed Policy – Friday, Dec. 1
The BEA’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for October, released yesterday, shows that core inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target at 1.45%. The most recent Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through October, is higher at 1.779%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge. The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the p... -
Finance 0
Prepare For Massive Deficits As Far As The Eye Can See
Signs are the putative Republican “deficit hawks” are about to sign away whatever integrity they had. What are the implications for the deficit going forward, keeping in mind the fact we are near or at full employment. Figure 1: Federal budget balance without automatic stabilizers, as a share of potential GDP (blue), and Federal budget balance as share of actual GDP (red), and baseline forecast Federal budget balance from June CBO forecast (pink), and alternative under Senate budget bill (teal), both as share of projected GDP. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (June 2017), an... -
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E Canada’s Economic Growth Slows As Exports Sink
Today’s release of third quarter GDP estimates should stay the hand of the Bank of Canada. Following a strong first half of the year, the Canadian economy slowed dramatically to an annual rate of 1.7 % in the third quarter compared to 4.3% recorded in the second quarter. Most importantly, the composition of third quarter growth reveals a real split between the domestic and the international sectors of the Canadian economy. Household consumption grew by 1% and was the major contributor to overall growth. The real culprit was the very disappointing results from the export sector. All major export sub-sectors declined in the quarter, lead ... -
Finance 0
Gold Juniors’ Q3’17 Fundamentals
The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent months grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness. The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling Trumphoria stock-market rally. But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them. The juniors recently reported Q3 earnings, and enjoyed strong results. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commis... -
Finance 0
Why Amazon Stock Could Be Worth $2000 Soon
In the world of online retailing, having volume is key. Amazon.com has been growing its online sales faster than any other online retailer in the United States. Since the beginning of the year, Amazon shares (AMZN) have increased by 56%, compared to a 19% gain for the S&P 500. This helped bring up the net worth of Amazon’s CEO, Jeff Bezos, to $100 billion. His net worth grew by 33 billion dollars in a single year. In 1994 he was working on Wall St and was faced with a dilemma. He could either continue building up a small fortune, or abandon his current career at the time to sell books instead. Bezos’ decision to go with his gut and... -
Finance 0
Update On The US Dollar Index From A Geometric Perspective
Short-Term/Daily: Dollar should move higher off solid geometric support Intermediate-Term/Weekly: Watch for possible bullish reversal around current geometric support. Upside target of 97.874 following bullish confirmation. SHORT-TERM VIEW: The dollar recently broke out of circular daily resistance, but is now getting geometrically cornered: Dollar must break descending trendline resistance to signal a move higher and a continuation of the circle breakout from earlier this week. Resistance of the line for Friday, December 1st is at 93.38. Timing point of both Nov. 30/Dec. 1 is dictated by the circle point (black arrow) at... -
Finance 0
5 Growth Funds To Buy On Highest GDP Growth Since 2014
The U.S. economy expanded at a better pace in the third quarter of this year than was earlier estimated, leading to the best quarterly GDP growth in the last three years. In its second estimate, the Department of Commerce upwardly revised economic growth for the third quarter. The report highlighted moderate growth in consumer spending, a rise in business investment and an expansion in government spending. Given this performance, it is likely that the U.S. economy will register a steady growth pace even in the final quarter of this year. With the domestic economy witnessing stable expansion, reaching full capacity, growth mutual funds have em... -
Finance 0
The Long-Term Risks Of Not Owning Cryptocurrency
The risk of owning cryptocurrency is pretty simple. You could lose money… but that’s a risk that comes with ANY investment. Every sane crypto investor understands this going in. But what about the risks of NOT owning cryptocurrencies? Those are very real too… What if bitcoin ownership goes from less than 1% to 10%? How about 35%? What if current debt-based monetary systems are doomed in the long term? What if central banks lose their monopoly on legal tender? (It already happened in Japan.) What if our savings continue to be debased by reckless monetary policy? What if cryptocurrency prices only peak and stabilize after decades, when t... -
Finance 0
VIX Elephant Poised To Lose $20 Million Escapes With $2 Million Loss
A VIX spiked today enabled a trader known as the “50 Cent Elephant” to escape his VIX bet with minimal losses. The VIX, a measure of S&P volatility usually drops when the market rises. Yesterday, despite a huge rally on news that the Senate had reached agreement on a tax bill, the VIX spiked. Today, equities are down sharply and the VIX up sharply on news former national security adviser Michael Flynn would implicate members of President Donald Trump’s transition team in the probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. This two-day move enabled the “50 Cent Elephant” to escape an enormous VIX bet with minima...
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