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Finance 0
The Latte Index: Using The Impartial Bean To Value Currencies
Like any other market, there are many opinions on what a currency ought to be worth relative to others. With certain currencies, that spectrum of opinions is fairly narrow. As an example, for the world’s most traded currency – the U.S. dollar – the majority of opinions currently fall in a range from the dollar being 2% to 11% overvalued, according to organizations such as the Council of Foreign Relations, the Bank of International Settlements, the OECD, and the IMF. For other currencies, the spectrum is much wider. The Swiss franc, which some have called the world’s most perplexing currency, has estimates from those same groups rangi... -
Finance 0
E It’s That Time Of Year
It’s forecasting time. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin called his 2018 outlook “rational exuberance” and he expects the S&P 500 to reach 2850 by the end of 2018. That’s a 9.5 percent rise from here. The driver will be corporate tax reform, which will generate greater profits. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch expects stocks to rise 11 percent in the first half, then head down. Few are outright bears. On the economic front, Goldman sees unemployment falling to 3.7 percent and interest rates staying relatively low here and abroad. What’s more, growth in the major and emerging markets will accelerate. It is already accele... -
Finance 0
Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita: The Latest Look At The Long-term Trend
Note: The charts below have been updated to include today’s preliminary report on U.S. Light Vehicle sales from Motor Intelligence. For the past few years, we’ve been following a couple of transportation metrics: Vehicle Miles Traveled and Gasoline Volume Sales. For both series, we focus on the population adjusted data. Let’s now do something similar with the Light Vehicle Sales report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This data series stretches back to January 1976. Since that first data point, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population Age 16 and Over (i.e., driving age, not in the military, or an inmate) has risen ... -
Finance 0
Blue Apron Downgraded After Management Shake-Up At RBC Capital
As previously reported, RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney downgraded Blue Apron (APRN) to Sector Perform from Outperform after the company announced that co-founder Matt Salzberg will be exiting as CEO and Brad Dickerson will be stepping into that role. Mahaney, who acknowledged he has “been arguably overly patient with the company,” said the management change implies less visibility and certainty into Blue Apron’s fundamentals. He lowered his price target on the stock to $4 from $6. ... -
Finance 0
Construction Spending Details: Diving Into The Plusses And Minuses
Construction spending rose 1.4%, led by non-residential construction. Let’s dive into the details. The Census Bureau reported a 1.4 Percent Rise in Construction Spending in October from September. The Econoday consensus only called for a 0.5% rise so let’s start there. It’s not housing that drove construction spending up a very sharp 1.4 percent in October but non-residential activity which had been lagging in this report. Spending on private non-residential construction jumped 0.9 percent in the month with strength centered in office construction and transportation construction. Despite the improvement, year-on-year spe... -
Finance 0
S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 1.53% From Last Week
The S&P 500 plummeted on open Friday, but began climbing just before noon and continued to rise until closing 0.20% below Thursday. Year-to-date, the index is up 18.02%. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.37%. Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. Today’s selling puts the volume 23% above its 50-day moving average. Here’s a monthly snapshot of the index going back to December 2008. A Perspective on Drawdowns Here’s a snapshot of record highs and selloffs since the 2009 trough. Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted. Here is a linear scale version of the s... -
Finance 0
Stock Markets Mueller’d As Yield Curve Collapse Continues
So to summarize – the former national security chief agrees to testify against the sitting president and The Dow drops 40pts… China stocks were mixed with CHINEXT surging overnight but CSI300 ending at the lows (worst week in 2017) Europe saw stocks and bond yields notably lower… But for US equities, overnight weakness (as Asian tech wrecked) was quickly dismissed into the US open thanks to Daines and Johnson saying “yes” to the tax bill. Everything was awesome for a while and then the Flynn headlines hit, plunging stocks lower. But then luckily, Europe closed and McConnell sais GOP had the votes for the ta... -
Finance 0
Market Talk – Friday, December 1
Although Asian indices opened well on the back of a strong US session, they unfortunately could not hold the levels. Part of the reasoning was the tax Bill would be delayed and having seen the DOW blast through the psychological 24k level many were concerned this delay could threaten Thursday gains. The Nikkei was up over 1% at the open but the uncertainty depleted over half of that gain. The Yen continues to drift with the high 112’s a comfortable trading range as the US markets reopen. Exporters were again leading the way but the weaker currency was a definite factor! Both the Hang Seng and Shanghai indices opened better but the lack of c... -
Finance 0
Market Reaction To The Flynn News… US Markets, Gold And Bitcoin
(Audio length 00:14:09) Doc is with me today to discuss his thoughts on the Michael Flynn news admitting he lied to the FBI. This news is also moving the equity markets and USD down and gold is up but not nearly as much as Bitcoin....
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