Here we are entering the home stretch of 2017 and looking back at the last eleven months, one thing is certain… no one predicted a year like this. For all the daily negativity being hyped in the financial, social, political and “fake” media it appears that things have been and will continue to be all right. Of course, nothing in life rises in a straight line. There will always be those annoying bumps along the way whether it’s dealing with family, friends, career, finances and more but if you are looking at the big, long term picture those annoying bumps and near term setbacks tend to look smaller and insignificant the longer your tim...
The market remains exceptionally strong as the bulls remain in clear control. Stocks refuse to fall in a meaningful fashion. Every time the market hints at pulling back the bulls show up and send stocks soaring. The two largest “down” days this year happened on June 9 and then last Wednesday, November 27. Both of those days happened on the Nasdaq while other big cap growth stocks sold off in heavy volume. Normally, that marks a near-term high but not in THIS market. Stocks soared on Thursday and the Dow topped 24,000 for the first time ever which was a few days after the S&P 500 topped 2,600. At this point, the market is very exten...
The New Zealand dollar suffered during the latter part of the year due to political fear, especially as Jacinda Ardern was sworn in. But has it gone too far? CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses NZD outlook, noticing that the post NZ election period has seen investors aggressively re-position their NZD bets. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: “From a record long skew at the end of July, positions have unwound to such an extent that new shorts are nearing mid-2015 extremes. So it’s not surprising that over the same period the currency has been by far the worst performing major against the USD. The question now is whether the market...
I’ve been asked about Bitcoin a lot lately. I’ haven’t written anything about it because I find myself in an uncomfortable place in agreeing with the mainstream media: It’s a bubble. Bitcoin started out as what I’d call “millennial gold” – the young (digital) generation looked at it as their gold substitute. Bitcoin is really two things: a blockchain technology and a (perceived) currency. The blockchain element of Bitcoin may have enormous future applications: It may be used for electronic contracts, voting, money transfers – and the list goes on. But there is a very important misconception about Bitcoin: Ownership of Bitcoi...
After the big meeting OPEC had, WTI oil closed up 10 cents at $57.40, making this out to seem like an unimportant event. However, that’s not the case because this decision was already priced in. It was so important that the market calculated exactly how it would affect prices before it occurred. The decision was to cut production for nine months, but it will be reviewed in June. The market feels it is a three month cut with an option for six more months. It seems like that six month option will be realized, but that will probably be the last of the cuts. The way this is structured gives us an answer to how the cuts will be ended. Because th...
Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral Gold prices hold on to support post-NFP, Looking for an early November low Gold prices are down for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off 0.57% to trade at 1280 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come amid continued strength in broader risk assets with all three major U.S. Indices probing fresh record highs this week. Heading into next week markets will be highly reactive to headline risk from the ongoing debate on the tax reform bill. Tax reform could ultimately weigh on gold prices IF the move stokes inflation closer towards the Fed’s 2% target and forces the centra...
Here is our latest update on the stock trading technique called ‘Buying Dividends,’ also commonly referred to as ‘Dividend Capture.’ This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only in bull markets, and can work in flat or choppy markets, but you need to avoid the technique during bear markets. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can’t sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may ...
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in October, 2017 for September, 2017. At the time, I lamented having too small an exposure to home builders while the entire sector rallied nearly non-stop. I was counting on seasonal patterns to deliver at least one buyable dip ahead of the seasonally strong period starting in November. The briefest of dips did arrive in the form of angst over the Republican tax reform bill. In a pattern familiar in this bull market, the angst lasted exactly one day before these stocks resumed their rallies. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) has not traded higher since early 2007. ITB is up a ...
After ‘crashing’ earlier in the week, Bitcoin soared in the last 24 hours following confirmation from the CFTC that it has approved regulated futures (and options) trading on CME, CBOE, and Cantor. This sent the price back above $11,000 and shifted the cryptocurrency to become the sixth most-circulated currency in the world. Bitcoin had, by all accounts, a remarkably volatile week, losing $3 billion in market cap in just 90 minutes as the price slid from $11,400 to close to $9,000 (on some exchanges it flash-crashed to the low $8,000s). Nevertheless, within 36 hours, the cryptocurrency has rebounded to over $11,000. image court...