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  • Finance 0

    Global Equity Markets On Edge As Uncertainty & Volatility Spike

    Talking Points: U.S. stocks reacted violently on Friday to Flynn/Trump headline; next week we have jobs data on Friday DAX hanging on by a thread, looking lower in the week ahead; no major data on the docket FTSE weak and in need of support, or else in danger of dropping a good distance lower S&P 500 On Friday, markets were struck with significant volatility when it was announced that President Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, pleaded guilty to the FBI for previously lying about involvement with the Russians. This will certainly be on the market’s mind heading into next week, potentially putting a damper-eff...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Christmas Rally Coming Early

    What the “heck” was that? This past week seemed to be the story of Christmas coming early. Earlier this week the markets surged higher on hopes that “Ole’ St. Tax Cuts” would soon be here. But that dream seemed to be short-lived on Friday, at least at the open, as General Mike Flynn seems to embody the “Grinch”trying to steal Christmas. But at the end of it all, not much actually changed. Well, except for the fact that volatility not only made an appearance as stock prices swung wildly in both directions, but also in Treasury rates. As expectations of tax reform grew, rates spiked higher but then sank just as quickly as fea...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Google Search Trends Confirm The Bitcoin Run-up

    I am a fan of using Google Trends for understanding the dynamics of financial markets. I have specifically used it in the past for analyzing extremes in sentiment and trading on gold. Given Bitcoin’s latest historical surge – this time through $11,000 – I wondered whether Google (GOOG) searches were increasing alongside the price of Bitcoin. Sure enough, Bitcoin searches have taken off this year, especially since April. I added search index data on cryptocurrency and blockchain for reference. The data are worldwide and include all search categories. After a two-year lull, Google searches on Bitcoin have picked up steam. The surge to al...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    The True Path To Prosperity

    It’s often thought that Democrats care about fairness and not economic growth, while Republicans care about growth even at the cost of some fairness. Rubbish. Growth and fairness aren’t opposites. In reality, Democrats are the party of economic growth and fairness. Republicans are the party of neither. The only way to grow the economy is by investing in the education, healthcare, and infrastructure that average Americans need in order to be more productive. Growth doesn’t “trickle down.” It rises up. Consider the two biggest legislative initiatives over past decade – the Affordable Care Act, achieved without a single Republican ...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is Blockchain Stock BTL Group (BTL.V) Still A Buy In 2018?

    Blockchain stock BTL Group, symbol BTL.V, trading on the Toronto Junior exchange (TSXV) continues its great ascent. The stock achieved our forecast of $9 which we did more than 6 months ago in this blockchain stock BTL Group forecast. Where from here? Readers are asking us whether this stock is still a buy after it tripled since we tipped this stock. Fundamentals of blockchain stock BTL Group On the one hand BTL Group is active in the hottest technology trend: blockchain. This is a blue ocean similar to the internet in 1997. The blockchain will disrupt industries in a once-in-a-decade fashion. It is happening in front of our eyes although ...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Top Distribution Starting

    Last week was a period of high volatility. Some will say it was news related, and they will be right. But it is also something that normally happens when cycles are peaking, and the news items which affect market prices in this manner are referred to as “catalysts”. This coincidence is a natural phenomenon and something that cannot be readily explained; just observed. In the previous letter, I had mentioned that we needed to see the start of some price congestion as an indication that a top was forming. I had also mentioned that a reversal would probably occur in about two weeks. It looks as if this is arriving right on cue. Last week’s...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    OPEC Doubles Down On Success Story In Process As WTI Approaches $60

    Fundamental Forecast for USOIL: Bullish Talking Points: OPEC and strategic alliances agree to extend production cuts to end of ’18 from March 18 Strong trend shows struggles around $64.65 (Brent), $59 (WTI) Per BHI, U.S. Oil Rig Count rises 2 to 749, third rise in four weeks IGCS showing net-short retail positioning in WTI – US Oil, market has traded 12% higher since signal emerged As OPEC and Russia agreed to extend production curbs to the end of 2018, traders appeared to lose interest in aggressively chasing the short side. On mid-Friday, after the production curb extension was curbed, both WTI Crude and the global benchmark, Brent...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Generational Chance To Sell Equities?

    Are tax cuts the final carrot in the free money episode we have witnessed over the last eight years? Sven Henrich at the NorthmanTrader has an excellent article on The Carrot Top. Henrich notes we have had 13 straight months of up in the global equity markets. However, central banking liquidity game has peaked and is dropping off:     On Thursday, the Dow blasted over 300 points higher on news the Senate would pass a tax cut. Will it create any jobs? I rather doubt it and so does any thinking individual. I will have more on the beneficiaries of the tax cut later today. Meanwhile, retail investors have been sucked in hook, line and sinker a...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    As Bitcoin Surges To New Record, Meet ‘Bubble Burst’, The App That Warns You Before A Crypto Collapse

    As Bitcoin Surges To New Record, Meet ‘Bubble Burst’, The App That Warns You Before A… https://t.co/MRvsTFJDIJ pic.twitter.com/xzMlSqDNyN — Walter White (@heisenbergrpt) December 3, 2017 So that tweet was posted a little over a day ago and while it hasn’t hit $30,000 yet, allow us to officially say we’re no longer “really disappointed” with everyone’s favorite crypto craze. Because on Sunday, the (relative) calm was shattered when Bitcoin decided to explode higher by some $700. Coindesk is super excited. “Beginning at 11:00 UTC, bitcoin saw a sudden surge, rising from $11,115 to set a new high of $11,655 by the end of the ...
    On December 3, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Let’s Make A Deal

    I might be dating myself, but what is happening in Washington reminds me of “Let’s Make a Deal,” one of the longest running TV game shows. This week’s market action was dominated by two big deals. First, the Senate deal on Taxes (including several special side deals) and secondly, Flynn’s guilty plea deal with Mueller. The markets mostly loved it. The Dow was up +2.96% for the week, led by value stocks. The original Let’s Make a Deal show featured contestants dressed in outrageous costumes competing to get noticed by Monty Hall (the game show host). They vied to make a deal with him by guessing which of three curtains hid the b...
    On December 3, 2017 / By