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  • Finance 0

    Macro Mondays: Margin Trading

    Welcome to yet another edition of Macro Mondays! The parallels between investing and gambling are quite evident, but they become blatantly obvious when you take a look at margin trading. If you visit a casino, are you allowed to borrow money from the casino to bet? This might sound silly, but it isn’t when it comes to margin trading – you can effectively borrow extra money to make trades that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to make. Great if you make money, very bad if you lose money.  What is ‘Margin Trading’? As we alluded to earlier, let’s continue the casino analogy. Imagine this: you’re sitting a...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    BSE Sensex 30 Index: Multiple Time Frame Geometric Analysis

    Short-Term/Daily: Uptrend in place since September 28, 2017. Market bounced off support last Friday. Intermediate-Term/Weekly: Uptrend progressing since February 29, 2016. Market dropping following hit of circular resistance. Possible change of trend. Long-Term/Monthly: Uptrend since March 2009. Possible failed breakout of a large geometric channel, with a potential drop to channel support coming, which would produce an intermediate-term correction at the least. SHORT-TERM/DAILY: Last Friday, December 1st saw the Sensex dropping and touching circular support as seen in this next chart. It missed the specific price support level of the circ...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    EUR/USD Wedge Pattern Awaits Bearish Or Bullish Breakout

    EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD could be in a wave B (purple) bearish retracement If price is able to break below the support trend line (blue). A bearish breakout could see price fall and challenge the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (pink). 1 hour The EUR/USD break below support (blue) could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (pink). A break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate an extension of wave 1 (pink), although new resistance levels are nearby (red lines). USD/JPY 4 hour The USD/JPY has made another higher high within the uptrend channel and therefore a new bullish pattern (wave 3) seems more likely at th...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Stock Market 2018: The Tao Vs. Central Banks

    The central banks claim omnipotent financial powers, and their comeuppance is overdue. I will be the first to admit that invoking the woo-woo of the Tao as the reason to expect a reversal of the stock market in 2018 smacks of Bearish desperation. With everything coming up roses in much of the global economy, there is precious little foundation for calling a tumultuous end to the global Bull Market other than variations of nothing lasts forever. Invoking the Tao specifically calls for extremes to return or reverse to the opposite polarity: this is expressed in the line from Lao Tzu, The way of the Tao is reversal or Reversal is the movem...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    USD/CAD Daily Analysis – Monday, December 4

    USD/CAD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.2666 and 1.2916 and is now facing 1.2666 support once again. A breakdown below this level could take price to next support level at 1.2600, followed by 1.2433. Resistance levels are at 1.2800 and 1.2916, above these levels will indicate that the uptrend from 1.2061 (Sep 8 low) has resumed, then next target would be at 1.3100 area....
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Intermediate Cycle Update – Monday, December 4

    Please also see my weekend post on the USD. I will be adding a few more updates over the next few hours. This weekend, I would like to step back and take a longer-term perspective on where Gold is likely headed in 2018. My first chart is a 20+ year weekly showing that Gold is at a major inflection point in my long-term uptrend channel. It shows a massive 20+ year Bull Flag that is either going to continue its breakout above the 2011 down trend or this will be a false breakout and my uptrend channel will fail. My second chart shows you that Gold has found a Yearly Cycle Low (YCL) in the Nov/Dec timeframe for the past 4 years. My Cycle work ind...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    What Could Go Wrong? Full Week Ahead Preview

    Ok, it’s time to break out the Jared Vennett clip, because the coming week should bring plenty in the way of excitement. First on the agenda will be everyone playing catch up after Friday. Stocks were weighed down by the ABC story which incorrectly cited a person close to Michael Flynn as saying the disgraced former national security adviser was prepared to testify against “candidate” Trump when the reality (for now) is apparently that Flynn will testify against “President-elect” Trump. Ultimately, that doesn’t change much in terms of the doom and gloom surrounding the administration but what it does mean is that the end isn...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Demand For The American Currency Has Grown Significantly

    Last week, trades on the majors were very active. At the same time, a unidirectional trend was not observed. The US currency has kept the current levels. The dollar index (#DX) closed the week with a slight increase (+0.14%). At the moment, the demand for the dollar has grown significantly. On Saturday, the US Senate approved a bill draft on the tax reform. A key event in the current trading week will be the publication of a report on the labor market in the United States. Today, the news background will be fairly calm. The attention is focused on the economic reports from the United Kingdom and the United States. We also recommend following ...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Tax Bill & Shrinkage Tantrum

    The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scoring of the tax bill was released at 8:49 PM on Friday night, and this link will take you to it. The title of this one-page document is a mouthful: “Summary of the Deficit Effects of a Bill to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2018, As Filed by the Senate on December 1, 2017.” The numbers here are critically important, though there may be some additional financial adjustments, given that the Senate debate ended in the early hours of Saturday morning and given that the Senate-version text has handwritten notes on the legislation that have ...
    On December 4, 2017 / By
  • Finance 0

    Are State-Sponsored Cryptocurrencies On The Way?

    The theme of a recent report from Casey Research was that the Russian government is planning to issue its own cryptocurrency (the “CryptoRuble”) that would be created, tracked and held on a state-controlled digital ledger. This was portrayed as being a huge plus for the Russian economy. I don’t see how giving the government greater ability to monitor financial transactions and thus divert more money into its own coffers could be anything other than a negative for any economy, but the Casey report got me thinking about whether a state-sponsored cryptocurrency is a valid concept. I’m far from an expert on cryptocurrencies and so I could...
    On December 4, 2017 / By