Latest Posts
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Finance 0
Brexit Is Pandora’s Gift To Britain
Saul Leiter Raining on two 1957 First of all, let me reiterate that I don’t think Brexit is a bad thing per se. Getting rid of Brussels is at least as much of a relief as it is a headache. Moreover, Britain needed a makeover, badly, as has ironically been shown especially after the referendum. But as an outsider, it is still top class theater to see it playing out. And the real high-value drama hasn’t even started. But we can already hear the orchestra changing tone, and mood, and the fat lady’s warming up her voice. To see the whole negotiating process being led and conducted by a woman who voted against initiating it in the first pl... -
Finance 0
Buying Yen – A Truly Contrarian Call
I am aware of all the doomsday Yen hyper-inflationary predictions due to their soaring debt-to-GDP ratio. And these Japanese bears very well might prove correct… In the long run. But as Mr. Keynes taught us, the long-run is an awfully long time. In the meantime, I think there is a terrific opportunity in Japanese assets, and that also includes the currency. This flies in the face of most market pundits’ forecasts. You will often hear recommendations to buy Japanese equities, but they will often be couched with warnings that it needs to be done on a “currency hedged basis.” And it’s easy to see why. BoJ Balance Sheet Expansion Over t... -
Finance 0
The Teflon Market
Despite a seemingly endless number of events that investors could easily use as justification to take profits, US equities just keep marching higher. While the magnitude of the gain this year has been far from record-breaking for a calendar year, the consistency has been without precedent by some measures. The tables below from our most recent Bespoke Report serve as an example of how Teflon the market has seemingly become as the S&P 500 is in its second-longest bull market, the tenth longest streak without a 10% correction, the fourth longest run without a 5% decline, and the longest rally ever without even a 3% decline. At some poin... -
Finance 0
Oil Prices Moderate On Rising U.S. Oil Rigs
Global oil investors have started holding back on growing U.S. oil rigs, even as OPEC promise to extend production cuts through the end of 2018. U.S. oil rigs rose to 749 last week, the largest level since September, according to Baker Hughes report. Prompting investors and traders to pullback on concern that growing Shale production will disrupt of OPEC ongoing strategy. “The OPEC deal will mostly work for non-OPEC,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Even if OPEC delivers the cuts promised, and prices stay high long enough, the main result will be that U.S. shale adds on close to 1 milli... -
Finance 0
Nasdaq Is Getting Slammed As Dow Soars
The overnight exuberance in US equity futures is being sold a little at the open, with – most notably – Nasdaq now back underwater from before ABC’s fake news Flynn story on Friday… Across asset classes – the unwind of Friday’s panic moves is complete, but the rotation out of tech is clear… Semis are getting slammed… As investors rotate to high tax corporations… ... -
Finance 0
Just Another Manic Monday – Tax Free Edition
The tax bill passed! That’s right, the GOP Senate passed the Trump Tax Plan when all the GOP Senators voted for it – what a surprise. In other news, water is wet. Still, the markets are acting like it’s a surprise with the Dow up 227 points in pre-market trading and that’s up about 500 points from Friday’s lows – in that brief moment we though Trump might be arrested before they pass the tax bill. Now it looks like he won’t be arrested until after the bill is signed – so all is well, I suppose. Dow 24,500 is up is up 4,500 (22.5%) from the start of the year and up 6,500 (36%) since the election. That&#... -
Finance 0
Regression To Trend; Another Look At Long-Term Market Performance
Quick take: At the end of November the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 112% above its long-term trend, up from 109% the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let’s apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question. Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We’re using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change re... -
Finance 0
This Time Is Different, It Just Ends The Same
This past weekend, I was in Florida with Chris Martenson and Nomi Prins discussing the current backdrop of the markets, economic cycles, and future outcomes. A bulk of the conversations centered around the current “everything bubble” that currently exists globally. Elevated valuations in stock prices, extremely low yields between in “junk bonds,” or intense speculation around “cryptocurrencies” all suggest we have entered once again into “bubble” territory.” Let me state this: “Market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.” Hold on…don’t start screaming “heretic” and building gallow... -
Finance 0
This Time Is Different, It Just Ends The Same
This past weekend, I was in Florida with Chris Martenson and Nomi Prins discussing the current backdrop of the markets, economic cycles, and future outcomes. A bulk of the conversations centered around the current “everything bubble” that currently exists globally. Elevated valuations in stock prices, extremely low yields between in “junk bonds,” or intense speculation around “cryptocurrencies” all suggest we have entered once again into “bubble” territory.” Let me state this: “Market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.” Hold on…don’t start screaming “heretic” and building gallow... -
Finance 0
Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries
– Increased efforts in green energy and advanced technology set to boosts silver’s demand – Four-year supply deficit set to increase due to fewer mine openings and discoveries – Bank manipulation may be why silver underperforming – TD Securities and the Bank of Montreal expect silver to be best performing precious metal in 2018 – Growing industrial demand combined with monetary safe haven makes silver an excellent diversifier The beauty of silver is its dual role. It is both a monetary metal and an industrial metal. Because of this investors can look to a positive few years as the metal’s fundamentals will thrive due to strong d...
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