The markets are continuing to be impacted by the possibility that Fed officials planted a press report to put 50 bp cut back on the table after the market had moved away from it after the recent jobs data and CPI. In the Fed funds futures, there is around an 80% of a half-point move on Wednesday discounted and about an 80% chance of a second 50 bp cut this year. This has taken a toll on the greenback and cut short the technical correction to last month’s slide. The US dollar is off against most of the world’s currencies and has been sold below JPY140 for the first time since July 2023, though Japan, China, and South Korean markets...
The S&P 500 sits less than a percent from its July high and is positioned well for a breakout. The Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are nowhere near their respective highs, but they too have breakout opportunities to add to last week’s gains.In the June quarter, US households’ equity allocation edged up sequentially to 37.3 percent. The metric reached a record high 37.9 percent in 4Q21. After that high, household ownership dropped to 32.4 percent in 3Q22 before reasserting itself.Unlike the prior major peaks – 32.6 percent in 1Q00 and 28.4 percent in 2Q07 (black circles in Chart 1) – household ownership this time around has sustain...
EUR/GBP pierces below the lower channel line of its rising channel in a breakout attempt lower. It is possible the bearish bias evident during the steep fall in August is reaserting itself. A close below 0.8423 (September 10 low) would pave the way for further weakness to a downside target at 0.8406, the 0.618 Fib extension lower. Below that lies support at 0.8385.  EUR/GBP 4-hour Chart Alternatively, if the break proves false there is a chance the shallow rising channel could extend, with circa 0.8460 as a possible upside target.  A close above the 0.8464 high (September 11 high) would be required to confirm an upside breakout from th...
META Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart,Meta Platforms Inc., (META) Daily ChartMETA Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFUNCTION: TrendMODE: ImpulsiveSTRUCTURE: MotivePOSITION: Intermediate wave (5).DIRECTION: Upside in wave 3.DETAILS: Looking for a bottom in wave 2 in place as we bounced off 500$, looking for upside towards Medium Level at 650$. META Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 1H Chart, SeptemberMeta Platforms Inc., (META) 1H ChartMETA Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFUNCTION: TrendMODE: ImpulsiveSTRUCTURE: MotivePOSITION: Minute wave {i}.DIRECTION: Upside in wave {i}.DETAILS: Looking for a potential top in wave (i) of {...
The EUR/USD currency pair Technical indicators of the currency pair: Prev. Open: 1.1068 Prev. Close: 1.1074 % chg. over the last day: +0.05 % The euro rose slightly on Friday, thanks to the dollar’s weakening. The euro also gained support amid comments from several ECB officials, who said they do not favor cutting interest rates at the ECB’s October meeting. ECB President Lagarde said that she is willing to consider an interest rate cut in October if the Eurozone economy suffers a major setback, but a rate cut at the December ECB meeting is more likely as the ECB will have better information on the economy by then. Holtzmann of the ECBâ€...
The trading week ending Friday, 13 September 2024 saw the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rise 4.0% above its previous week’s close. The index ended the week at a level of 5,626.02, almost erasing the previous week’s decline.During the past week, there was one overarching factor that influenced investor expectations, which ties to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate cut set to be announced on Wednesday, 18 September 2024. The answer to the question “how big will the cut be?”Going into the week, there were very high odds the Federal Reserve would enact a quarter point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate. But ...
Image Source: DepositPhotosIn this update we review the recent price action in spot Gold and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target.Video Length: 00:03:56More By This Author:SP500 & US500 Daily Trade Plan – Thursday, September 12Daily Market Outlook, Thursday, September 12SP500 & US500 Daily Trade Plan – Wednesday, September 11...
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market is that the $70 level has been like a brick wall. This is interesting considering that the market had recently tried to bounce a bit, and the weekly candlestick looks at least somewhat promising. I think this sets up a potentially big move, and if we can recapture the $70 level on the daily chart, we may get a little bit of a relief rally. Â On the other hand, when you look at the daily timeframe, it certainly looks like $70 is going to be difficult to overcome. In this environment, we could very well pull back down to the recent swing low near the $66.33 region, and anything below that would of co...
The dollar is feeling the heat again as investors double down on the expectation that the Fed will kick off its rate-cutting cycle with a bold 50bps move on Wednesday. What’s more, the ripple effect is sweeping through Asia, where currencies are basking in the glow of a softer dollar, with the yen leading the charge as the real star of the show. U.S. rates continue to slide, yet equity markets are stubbornly holding onto gains, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative and setting up what looks like a bearish outlook for the dollar. But the yen is stealing the FX spotlight. When it comes to USD/JPY, the story is as clear as day. The question i...
Image Source: DepositPhotosTransUnion (TRU) has been making impressive moves recently, showcasing substantial relative strength compared to the broader market. Following the August sell-off, TRU has not only bounced back but also surged to new highs. This quick recovery and outperformance set the stock apart as one to watch closely.Technically, the structure of TRU is quite attractive. The stock has been building a solid base and has recently broken out, followed by a successful test of that breakout. This signals a potential continuation to the upside, with the current flagging pattern indicating further momentum, just like the other 2 quali...