Latest Posts
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Finance 0
Retailer Seasonality: 2017 Is A Different Year
I have been harping on retail as a contrary investment and trade for the past month or so. A reader prompted me to consider whether a seasonal element helps explain the current run-up that has turned into a bona fide breakout for the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). Turns out the answer is “not really.” XRT was introduced in 2006. The following chart shows full-year performance for XRT from 2007 to 2016 and year-to-date performance for this year. The thick black curve represents 2017. The purple vertical line is the approximate point at which XRT turned up from its low of the year. I sorted the legend by the arrangement of the graph from t... -
Finance 0
Dividends By The Numbers For November 2017
We’re going to stick with just the facts in our roundup of this past month’s market dividend news! The following chart shows the ongoing evolution of either dividend increase announcements or dividend cut announcements from January 2004 through November 2017. Let’s get to the numbers! In November 2017… 3,518 U.S. companies declared dividends, up from the 3,077 that did so in the previous month, but more importantly, up significantly from the 3,297 that announced their dividend plans in November 2016. There were 109 U.S. firms that announced that they would be paying a special, or extra, dividend payment to their ... -
Finance 0
Sensex Trades In Red; Metal Stocks Witness Selling
After opening the day in a red note, the Indian share markets have continued the downward spiral and are currently trading in the negative territory. All sectoral indices are trading negative, with stocks in the metal sector and the power sector witnessing maximum selling pressure. The BSE Sensex is trading down 165 points (down 0.5%) and the NSE Nifty is trading down 48 points (down 0.5%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading down by 0.7%. The rupee is trading at 64.38 to the US$. In news from stocks in the IPO space. The initial public offer (IPO) of hospital chain,... -
Finance 0
Asset Prices And Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey
Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey is the title of an excellent review authored by two leading experts, Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose, that is required reading for anyone who wants to glean the implications of asset price movements for what’s going to happen in the real economy. From the conclusion: Challenges to theoretical and empirical findings. The links between asset prices and activity differ from the predictions of standard models in a number of ways. First, asset prices are much more volatile than fundamentals would imply and can at times deviate, or at least appear to do so, from their predicted fundamental values. ... -
Finance 0
E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Dec. 5
A notable change in market behavior has been evidenced for two weeks, in a clearer way than the ongoing rotational action that preceded for months. Last week we saw a couple days during which the Senior Indexes were up a lot; or at least firmed substantially, while FANG and other presumed leaders more of a momentum nature (and typically involved directly or indirectly in a technology field, or one that requires advanced technology to deliver their products) were failing to participate, and even declining quite visibly. That happened again on Monday, really from the get-go, with the DJIA and S&P up, while Nasdaq, QQQ, NDX and SOX were down... -
Finance 0
The Disinformation War: The Attempt To Disregard Silver Investor Demand In The Market
Here is a Disinformation War taking place in the silver market as certain industry analysis is confusing individuals by purposely disregarding the tremendous impact of rising investment demand. Not only do I find this troubling, but I am also quite surprised how much the silver industry pays attention to this faulty analysis. So, it’s time once again to set the record straight. Setting the record straight has now become a new mission for me at the SRSrocco Report because the amount of disinformation and faulty analysis being published in the mainstream and alternative media is quite disturbing. I decided it was time to say enough was enough... -
Finance 0
Silver And Gold Bottom Soon
Silver and gold have hit a new low for the year during December in each of the last five years. They are on track for repeating their journey this year if we are to believe sentiment matters. And I do. Two measures allow us to gauge sentiment. My favorite is the DSI or Daily Sentiment Index put out by Jake Bernstein. It’s more valuable than cheap. One good trade would more than pay for six month’s service. If you want to see how accurate is it, on December 17th of 2015, the day of the low in gold, it was 8, the low for the year. On December 15th of 2016, the day of the low in gold, it showed a value of 4, also a low for the year. For... -
Finance 0
Vanguard Warns Of 2018 “Volatility”: Translation 3-5% Gains
We have a new meaning of “volatile” today courtesy of Vanguard. Expect only 3-5% gains in 2018. Here’s a good one: Vanguard Warns More Volatility in 2018 May Hurt Equity Returns but expect positive returns anyway. Vanguard Group, which manages $4.8 trillion, wants investors to take note: 2018 may not be great for your portfolio. “While our global market outlook suggests a somewhat more challenging and volatile environment ahead, investors can continue to find potential for long-term success by lowering their return expectations,” Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, said in a press release. The firm sees U.... -
Finance 0
Just When You’ve Thought You’ve Seen It All
I could understand it if its track record was spotty, or partially mixed. But the level of denial runs deep and wide with the yield curve. There is a growing chorus of nonsense, really, which is attempting to spin the flattening as some kind of benign technical rotation that through illogical convolution equals the opposite of what is obvious. Let’s start in the right place with the premise that a flattening yield curve doesn’t necessarily mean recession. There is an unhealthy obsession with curve inversion, though one that is at least rational (relative to all this) in its basis. The problem lies in thinking that a turn in the business c...
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