US oil prices eked out a small gain last week, ending a 4-week losing run. It looks like it was the hurricane disruptions that helped WTI recoup its losses for the week. Indeed, the Brent oil contract finished down for a fifth week. Both oil contracts thus remain in danger of resuming lower, with investor concerns about demand in China growing further following the release of further negative data from the world’s second largest economy at the weekend. The big concern for oil investors right now is that demand growth is not going to be strong enough to offset the supply growth. These concerns have been highlighted by oil agencies such as ...
The market seems to be in a state of anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, with investors bracing for what could be the first rate cut since 2020. The strong performance of the major indices last week, particularly the Nasdaq’s impressive rally, reflects optimism that the Fed will take a more accommodative stance. However, the uncertainty remains high, as the odds of a 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut are essentially even, making the Fed’s decision almost a coin toss at this point. The focus on economic data, such as August retail sales and industrial production numbers, highlights how closely markets are watching...
Image Source: DepositPhotosTraders are often encouraged to focus on long-term investments, leaving them wondering whether to stick with long-term trends or seize quick profits through short-term opportunities. While long-term investing is a familiar path, short-term trading can also be a dynamic way to capitalize on crypto’s volatility. The best part? It doesn’t have to be complicated. By adopting simple, intuitive strategies, you can seamlessly incorporate short-term trading into your broader approach. Here’s how to make the most of it, building on what you’ve already learned. Case Study: Capturing a Short-Term Bitcoin Price RallyIm...
Stocks have extended their gains, but will the uptrend continue?Stock prices continued their uptrend on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% and breaking above the 5,600 level. The market is once again nearing its July 16 record high of 5,669.67. But will it continue upward? Today, the index is expected to open 0.1% lower as markets await the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. In the short term, the market appears more and more overbought, making a correction likely at some point.Last week, the investor sentiment worsened, as shown by AAII Investor Sentiment Survey on Wednesday, which reported that 39.8% of individual investors are bull...
The Japanese yen has risen to around 139.80 against the US dollar in thin trading today, Monday, hovering near its highest levels since July 2023 amid a widening divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the United States. Widely, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week while leaving the door open for another rate hike, possibly in October. Last week, Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura said the BOJ should raise short-term interest rates to around 1% at least through fiscal 2026 to achieve its 2% inflation target on a sustainable basis. BOJ Board Member Junko Nakagawa also said the central bank will ...
RUSSELL 2000 Elliott Wave Analysis – Trading Lounge Day ChartRUSSELL 2000 Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Gray wave 3 POSITION: Orange wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: Gray wave 3 (in progress)DETAILS: Gray wave 2 appears to be completed, and now gray wave 3 is active.Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 203.76The Russell 2000 Elliott Wave analysis on the daily chart shows the market currently in an impulsive trend mode, indicating strong directional movement. The wave structure being analyzed is gray wave 3, which suggests the market is in the third and typically most dynamic phase of the...
Oil prices are recovering in slow motion as geo-political risks run high and a slower than expected oil and gas production comeback after Hurricane Francine tore through the Gulf of Mexico. On the flip side, global demand fears are still strong on weak manufacturing data and more fears that China’s economy is slowing. The Fed Meeting is the market highlight this week and should be the driver for the direction of oil prices. It may keep oil in its slow mode until the Fed does its thing.Crack spreads still look weak, and hedge funds are piling on to the downside in historic fashion. John Kemp at Reuters wrote that, “Hedge Funds and other ...
The EUR/USD outlook is inclined to the upside after ECB officials failed to give clear guidance on future rate cuts. The cautious tone led to a decline in ECB rate cut expectations, strengthening the euro. At the same time, the dollar remained vulnerable after news outlets on Friday renewed bets for a 50-bps Fed rate cut this week. On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25-bps as expected. However, market participants had expected clear guidance on futures rate cuts. ECB president Christine Lagarde said there was no predetermined path for rate cuts. Therefore, the central bank will decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Furthermo...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock price has remained in a deep bear market this year as concerns about the artificial intelligence (AI) industry continued. It has dropped by over 35% from its highest point this year, giving it a market cap of over $246 billion. AI growth concerns remainIn theory, the artificial intelligence industry is doing modestly well. Just recently, there are reports that OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, is about to raise funds at a $150 billion valuation. Just recently, we reported that the firm’s fundraising from Apple and Nvidia were funding it at a $100 billion.Nvidia, the posterchild of the AI industry is a...
Copper prices have started to recover from their August 2024 low, but the current bounce appears corrective. While the short-term outlook remains bullish, this upside movement will likely be followed by a renewed downtrend once the bullish corrective cycle concludes. Here’s a detailed Elliott Wave analysis of Copper’s price action and what traders can expect in the near future. Long-Term Chart AnalysisSince March 2020, Copper has been unfolding into a diagonal structure at the supercycle degree. Wave (I) of this structure peaked in March 2022, and Wave (II) ended in July 2022. The following expansive Wave (III) took pri...