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Markets Savor A Big Rate Cut, But The Main Course Awaits With Jay Powell
Image Source: UnsplashMARKETSStocks had a mixed Monday session as tech names hit a speed bump, with Apple (AAPL) dragging down the Nasdaq due to concerns over iPhone 16 sales. But the S&P 500 brushed off that tech stumble, inching toward record highs, while the Dow marched confidently to another peak. Investors seemed to be banking on a jumbo-sized rate cut ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting, with optimism bubbling through the markets.The labour market and inflation data haven’t exactly screamed for a massive cut, but that hasn’t stopped the market from placing its bets. With a 50bp cut looking like a sure thing, disappoint... -
Finance 0
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – Sliding Contentedly Into The Abyss
Image Source: PexelsStocks had the wobbles today, but managed to hang on to their perches.Gold and silver also marked time in place.The Dollar fell.The VIX remains supine.The FOMC will be making some noises this week on Wednesday.The expectations are for a 50 bp cut. A 25 bps cut will disappoint. Doing nothing will shock.There is an option expiration on Friday.Big events are in play. It is stunning to see how little attention they receive.Our generation is like so many others that have come and gone before us.We believe in comedians, sociopaths, and charlatans. We do not believe in plagues.Let’s see what happens.Have a pleasant... -
Finance 0
Four Day Rallies Reach Peak; Market Reversals Next?
Image Source: PexelsAfter blasting through 20-day and 50-day moving averages with little fanfare, the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 (IWM) all finished with topping doji, opening up the possibility for gaps down tomorrow and bearish “evening star” candlestick formations.The Nasdaq is looking the most bearish of these indices as it stalls out at channel resistance. Its 20-day and 50-day MAs are also nearby, and the tight action of the last few days have left the index clinging on to this moving average support. Technicals are net positive, opening up for a breakout in the downward channel and a challenge of July highs, but price... -
Finance 0
USD/CAD Holds Steady Above 1.3550 Ahead Of Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales Data
Photo by Michelle Spollen on Unsplash USD/CAD flat lines around 1.3585 in Monday’s early Asian session. The US Fed is widely anticipated to cut interest rates on Wednesday, its first in four years. The Canadian CPI inflation report is due later on Tuesday. The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3585 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Further decline in the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the key US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision is likely to cap the upside for the pair. Later on Tuesday, investors will monitor the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Retail Sales for August for fresh impetus. The Fed... -
Finance 0
Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update – Monday, Sept 16
Image Source: PixabayNothing new to be adding to current analysis. Leaving me to update the charts on the rolls out to the December contract. The 3 potential scenarios laid out over the weekend remain valid and active. The markets are the moment are awaiting the FED decision on Wednesday.Video Length: 00:23:45More By This Author:Weekly Technical Update: Nasdaq 100 – Saturday, Sept 14Weekly Technical Update: S&P 500 – Saturday, Sept 14Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update – Thursday, Sept 12... -
Finance 0
Gold Price Rises As Fed 50 Bps Rate Cut Expectation Intensify
Image Source: Pixabay Gold prices rise as odds for a 50 bps Fed rate cut increase to 59%, supported by falling US Treasury yields. US Dollar Index (DXY) drops 0.36% to 100.74, boosting the non-yielding metal. Traders await US Retail Sales on Tuesday and housing data ahead of Fed decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. Gold price posted gains of over 0.18% during the North American session on Monday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar as traders eye Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. Expectations for a larger-than-expected rate cut bolstered the XAU/USD, which trades at $2,582 after bouncing o... -
Finance 0
Four Stocks To Watch This Week – Monday, Sept 16
WiseTraders Weekly Watchlist: September 16, 2024 – September 20, 2024 A proper yo-yo week that turned on a dime late Wednesday morning. Overall bias is bullish, but patchy and flaky are words that may also accompany the direction. Here are four stocks to watch this week: KR (bullish) – An excellent earnings reaction, this grocer now needs to consolidate here, preferably with a more compelling OVI. MNST (bullish) – Resting on its 50-day Key Level, this drinks giant is poised for upside, though its OVI is not quite playing ball yet. NKE (bullish) – A pullback consolidation into its 50-day Key Level ... -
Finance 0
The Fed “Train” Is Leaving The Station: Destination Unknown
Image Source: UnsplashThe markets are pricing in the first rate cut in more than four years. As of this writing, it looks like we can expect a 50-basis-point cut on Wednesday, with a 50% probability of a 1.25% cut by December.That’s fast… but what’s the hurry? Is the Fed that desperate to accommodate the mountain of T-bill debt the Treasury will roll over in the coming year? Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a big bet that the Fed would cut this year when she directed the Treasury to issue T-bills over bonds and notes.The Fed has a “mountain” of its own to contend with – unrealized losses they’re holding onto.We need to ... -
Finance 0
Bitcoin & Big-Tech Battered, Bonds & Black Gold Bid As Rate-Cut Expectations Soar
Image Source: PixabayA quiet macro day ahead of the coming storm with just soft-survey data hitting. But having said that US Empire Fed Manufacturing exploded higher (smashing expectations by six standard deviations in September, +11.5 vs -4.0 exp, vs -4.7 prior)…Source: BloombergHowever, it was the WSJ’s Greg Ip that prompted some chaos in markets with his weekend piece pitching 50bps cut this week. The market is now pricing in around 70% odds of a 50bps cut this week…Source: BloombergWe do noted that 2025 rate-cut expectations are drifting lower as 2024 dovishly increases…Source: BloombergInterestingly, before we... -
Finance 0
When Tariffs Last Bloomed – Soybean Edition
Image Source: UnsplashOr, have US soybean exports recovered since Trump last reigned? Not in volumes.Source: Colusi, et al. (2024). Marking for trade war in 2018 by author.2023 exports are below 2017 levels. USDA forecast for 2024/25 marketing year (9/1/24-8/31/25) is 1.875 bn bushels, vs 1.6 bn bushels for 2023/24, or about 17% increase.More By This Author:Manufacturing: When Tariffs Last BloomedReal Average WagesNationwide Grocery Prices At 2024M01 Levels...
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