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American Consumers Spending More, Getting Less
Image Source: Unsplash Retail sales beat expectations in August, rising by 0.1 percent month-on-month. You might assume this means American consumers did better this month than last month. A deeper look into the context of these numbers offers another perspective.The retail sales data only tells us that Americans spent more last month than they did the month before. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they got more stuff. In fact, when factoring in price inflation, we find that while Americans spent more in August, they got fewer goods and services for their money.Raw retail sales data only tells half the story because it isn’t adjusted fo... -
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Grains Report – Tuesday, Sep. 17
WHEAT General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday on what appeared to be long liquidation from the rally last week as world prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. The USDA reports held little significance for Wheat as USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near u... -
Finance 0
T-Bill Secondary Market On Discount Basis Is The Fed’s Guide
Image source: Pixabay Dividend stocks (WMB, KMI, IIPR) will rally once the rate cuts begin. We are getting so close, and I think September is iffy for a cut, but if this trend continues, October would be a lock.“Davidson” submits:T-Bill Secondary Mkt on Discount Basis appears to be the Fed Funds benchmark. It is this T-Bill rate which moves 1st that Fed Funds follows in a few weeks always keeping a premium. At 4.85% today, the spread between the T-Bill and Fed Funds is enough to permit the Fed to cut but too early to do so as it usually needs to see T-Bill rates stabilize at the new level for a couple of weeks before acting.However, EU ... -
Finance 0
Koo: China’s Balance Sheet Recession
Image Source: Unsplash Once real estate bubbles bust, prices typically fall for years, and paying down debt becomes the priority. In the process, slashing interest rates does not entice the hoped-for revival of borrowing, and it takes years to rebuild balance sheets. This is now underway in the world’s second-largest economy. Et tu, Canada?Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun. Here is a direct video link.China’s M1 money supply contracted by 7.3% in August, ... -
Finance 0
Retail Sales Rise A Feeble 0.1 Percent, Yet Generally Better Than Expected
Advance nominal and real (Inflation-Adjusted) and month-over-month from the Census Bureau, chart by Mish.We have another interesting set of Advance Retail Sales numbers from the Commerce Department this morning. Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $710.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2023. Total sales for the June 2024 through August 2024 period were up 2.3... -
Finance 0
WTI Crude Gains Amid U.S. Gulf Supply Disruptions, Fed Rate Cut Speculation, And Weaker Chinese Demand
Image Source: Unsplash The rise in WTI crude prices reflects the ongoing supply concerns, particularly with the lingering effects of Hurricane Francine and the disruption in production from both the US Gulf of Mexico and Libya. These supply-side issues are helping to prop up prices, despite broader concerns about demand. The anticipation of a larger 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve also seems to be fueling optimism in the oil market, as lower rates could stimulate economic activity and potentially increase oil demand. However, the tempered gains due to weaker demand growth in China highlight the ongoing fragility of the global ... -
Finance 0
Resilient U.S. Retail Sales Suggests Fed Decision Will Be A Coin Toss
Despite some better data of late, financial markets are gunning for a 50bp rate cut from the Fed tomorrow. We certainly agree there is a strong case for the Fed to move policy to neutral quickly and expect Chair Powell to make the case for a 50bp cut, but the issue is whether the other FOMC members are as certain. There will be large pockets of resistance.Image Source: Pexels Mixed newsflow makes the Fed decision a close call US retail sales in August were stronger than anticipated, rising by 0.1% month-on-month versus the -0.2% consensus, while July’s growth rate was revised up to 1.1% from the initial 1% reported. The control grou... -
Finance 0
Cloud Stocks: Workday Wants AI To Reimagine End To End Business Processes
Photo by Steve Johnson on Unsplash Enterprise services provider Workday (Nasdaq: WDAY) recently announced its second-quarter results that surpassed market expectations. The better-than-expected earnings outlook sent the stock soaring 12% in the after-hours trading session. Workday’s Financials Workday’s second-quarter revenues grew 17% to $2.09 billion, ahead of the Street’s forecast of $2.08 billion. Non-GAAP-EPS was $1.75, ahead of the Street’s expected earnings of $1.63.By segment, Subscription services revenues grew 17% to $1.903 billion, marginally ahead of the Street’s forecast of $1.89 billion. Professional services reve... -
Finance 0
Predicting The Federal Reserve
Image source: Wikipedia Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun weighs in on the question: Will the Fed cut rates and move the stock market?Video Length: 00:09:48More By This Author:Election Impact on the EconomyWeekly Recap And DARP Update – Saturday, Sept. 14Weekly Recap And DARP Update – Saturday, Sept. 7... -
Finance 0
Stocks To Watch Today: Intel, HPE, And MSFT
Image courtesy of 123rf.com In a bustling day on Wall Street, three tech giants are making waves with significant announcements and stock movements. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE: HPE), and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) are each navigating unique challenges and opportunities in the rapidly evolving tech landscape, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence. Intel Shares Surge on Major AWS Deal Intel Corporation (INTC) shares surged 6.81% to $22.33 in morning trading, buoyed by a major deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The chipmaker announced it will produce custom AI chips for AWS, marking a significant mile...
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