In December 1999, Princeton Professor Ben S. Bernanke wrote a relatively obscure paper largely denouncing the Bank of Japan’s shyness. Japan’s economy had by then been mired in its first Lost Decade, one which at that moment not everyone was sure should have been lost. It was fashionable at the time to pile on the BoJ.
Dr. Bernanke argued for extreme aggressiveness, truly radical experimentation. Big problems require equally big solutions. These were necessary because of the huge scale of the issue facing them. In conclusion, the future Fed Chairman wrote:
Japan is not in a Great Depression by any means, but its economy has operated below potential for nearly a decade. Nor is it by any means clear that recovery is imminent. Policy options exist that could greatly reduce these losses. Why isn’t more happening? To this outsider, at least, Japanese monetary policy seems paralyzed, with a paralysis that is largely self-induced. Most striking is the apparent unwillingness of the monetary authorities to experiment, to try anything that isn’t absolutely guaranteed to work. [emphasis added]
His larger point was valid and poignant. In Japan’s case, as anyone’s might be in the same situation, there should be no stone left unturned when confronted by such a substantial break in economic function. A dislocation of that magnitude, meaning length of time if not depths to some 1930’s trough, demands emergency thinking rather than stolid patience almost to the point of indifference.
To be so relatively passive would be a crime, especially if the results were to be losing a decade of actual economic sufficiency. Dr. Bernanke argued for thinking way outside the box, for what else would be demanded by this sort of situation?
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, by contrast, was apparently unimpressed by his earlier urgency. I wrote just a few short weeks ago that though the Bank of Japan was run by clowns, I’d prefer the clowns every time to the corruption that has so thoroughly inundated “our” central bank.
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