Finance 0

Today’s Trading Plan: Traders Panic

By Kurt Osterberg · On February 11, 2016

Technical Outlook:

Overnight futures are failing hard and fast. There is some pumping of USD/JPY currency pair that has lifted futures off the lows this morning, but still looking at a heavy downward move at the open.

Oil sinking again, hard and fast, below $27, and could even see the $25’s at some point today.

Yesterday’s price action saw heavy gains evaporate into the close, as Yellen’s speech soured Wall Street.

1812 is a critical level to watch today on SPX. It marks the January lows, and if broken could result in a much bigger move lower for the market.

That massive head and shoulders pattern on the weekly SPY/SPX (formed over the last two years) that I have been harping on, looks to confirm today, which is a major problem for the bulls going forward, as it would likely signal further downside for the market going forward. If this confirms, the target on the pattern suggests an eventual 200-300 point move to the downside.

If the selling persists throughout the day, there is a strong possibility that SPX sees a move below 1800.

Keep in mind though, on these extremely bearish days, they also tend to be the ones that sees massive short covering as well and as a result, some huge intraday reversals.

VIX fell 1% yesterday to close at 26.29. Still highly elevated.

T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) fell 2.3% down to 20.31. Still no where near the levels reached back in January, and could create a bullish divergence (but don’t get too excited just yet).

Strong downward trend-line off of the 12/30 highs. Current resistance sits at 1898.

Yellen will be speaking again in front of Congress. This time the Senate Banking Committee. I don’t expect her to change her tune from yesterday. But don’t rule it completely out.

Volume was extremely light yesterday and below average. I don’t expect that to be the case today.

Insane price movements every day being created by computer generated trading (HFT’s) in a highly volatile market marked with enormous headline risk.

There is a lot of stop-loss hunting out there in the market, and being agile with getting in and out of positions quickly has been extremely important.