Last Friday, when the weekly CFTC data was released, we learned that in the week through July 11, specs had trimmed their CAD shorts by 30,375 contracts to just 9,581.
You probably don’t care one way or another about the loonie, but that was notable – as in “big league” notable.
Why? Simple: because it was just two months previous that specs were the most short CAD on record.
So what happened? Well, despite a possible housing bubble and a crude market that’s prone to collapsing (see Friday for example), the BoC was effectively forced to take an abrupt hawkish turn in solidarity with other DM central banks.
For those who missed it, here’s Bloomberg’s Luke Kawa to explain the sudden shift in the BoC’s policy narrative:
And then came last Wednesday’s rate hike.
Needless to say, the rally that hike sparked in CAD cleared out the remaining shorts and this evening we learned that in fact, specs are now net long the loonie again:
“Hedge funds and other large speculators turned bullish on the Canadian dollar for the first time since March as wagers that the loonie will strengthen outnumbered bets it will weaken by 8,043 contracts in the latest period vs 8,604 net short positions the previous week,” Bloomberg wrote Friday afternoon.
And thus ends one of the most painful chapters in the history of spec positions gone horribly wrong.
Congratulations Luke, the loonie is back in favor – “RT if you cry every time“…
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