Finance 0

Double Data Disappointment Today Follows Worst Macro Week In 6 Years

By Kurt Osterberg · On April 24, 2017

Following the worst week for US macro data in six years, The Chicago Fed (National Activity) and now The Dallas Fed (regional) have both disappointed and fallen this morning.

It was a rough week for ‘hope’ last week…

And this week has not started well…

March Chicago Fed national activity index printed 0.08 versus an estimated 0.50 (range -0.1 to 0.75) and February was revised lower to 0.27 from 0.34. Furthermore, 48 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions, while 37 indicators deteriorated.

And then Dallas Fed disappointed, printing 16.8 against expectations of 17.0…

But it’s the respondents comments that shed light on the ugly reality under the surface…

The global economies and the U.S. economy are very weak and uncertain

I keep reading and hearing that things are swinging in a favorable direction. I don’t see it yet. Steel consumption is still soft.

We have never seen our construction industry in North Texas busier than it is right now, going back nearly 50 years

We continue to be optimistic about the future; however, it still seems to be a slow thaw to the winter doldrums. We are busier in April than March, and hopefully this trend continues.

We are still looking for some tax relief to expand faster and hire more people faster. In this labor market it is getting hard to find quality candidates, and salaries are increasing. The labor regulations and rules are starting to be less burdensome for the first time in a long time, improving the hiring outlook and allowing us to pay people more. The business sector is still suffering from too much bureaucracy and governmental red tape. We are becoming more concerned about future trade interruptions due to international conflicts. We are hoping for improved trade conditions, lower barriers, reduced tariffs and improved ease of commerce between countries.

Oil and gas has little or no impact in our business. The one exception is that fewer workers are needed, as some roles have been replaced by more advanced equipment. Fewer workers means fewer families can afford craft and art supplies for themselves and their children. As we are in the art and craft business, this is not a cheery outlook.