Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised upward from a seasonally-adjusted annual growth rate of 2.945% to 3.243%. For the first time since the middle of 2014, GDP appears to have advanced (subject to further revisions) at a better than 3% rate for two consecutive quarters. That level of growth used to be commonplace, even something of an economic floor, but now is celebrated as an achievement given the rarity of its occurrence.
And even when compared to prior intermittent upswings, GDP still registers more trouble than positives. Comparing the middle quarters of 2017 with the middle quarters of 2014 shows just how little growth is actually taking place. What makes up actual economic growth is not the occasional decent quarter or two, but sustaining them for a prolongedperiod.
Like inflation, these numbers mean something in the real world. We can observe those effects through something like corporate profits. Accompanying the first GDP revision to Q3 estimates are the BEA’s versions of profit estimates. During the quarter, corporate bottom lines improved like the overall economy captured by headline GDP.
But it still doesn’t mean very much. In context, profits are lagging severely still even though the downturn, an actual contraction in net income terms, ended seven quarters ago (the trough for profits was Q4 2015). Depending on the specific measure, corporate net income is in Q3 2017 at best barely more than Q4 2014, or, in the more important economic measures like profits from current income and corporate net cash flow, still below that period.
This lack of growth goes back almost six years, a deviation in growth rates (and much more volatility) registering in early 2012 following the monetary fireworks in 2011. Economists and central bankers after finally admitting there might be an economic problem have tried to turn it into an exogenous one, blaming the medical profession so as to avoid scrutiny of the monetary profession.
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