The Trump economy is cracking—GDP growth is on track to top 3% for three quarters running. We haven’t seen that since 2004, and the Dow Jones average has just pierced 24,000.
Privates businesses are optimistic and poised to invest with passage of the tax cuts. They have broken free from the Obama era pessimism about free markets and capitalism.
This has big consequences for ordinary investors. Even with stocks up overall more than 20% this year, this is no time to sell.
Here is a broader look at the economy and what it means for you.
In the new millennia, the U.S. and global economies have undergone radical change. Bellwether companies like GM, Proctor & Gamble and GE have endured wrenching adjustments but American businesses remain well positioned to profit from the next wave—robotics, artificial intelligence and electric vehicles.
For 2018, the global economy and international commerce are poised for a strong year. Most of the highly sought global brands—and most robust high tech businesses—remain American. Firms like Apple and Netflix will profit.
Much has been made of the Trump effect but so far, the economy has been in a policy neutral environment. Mr. Trump’s promises on taxes, infrastructure and immigration reform have yet to materialize and deregulation is still in its nascent state.
Most fundamentally stock market gains have been paid for with profits growth. Currently, the S&P500 is trading at about 25-times earnings—just about what it was a year ago and roughly in line with its 25-year average.
Analysts are forecasting earnings growth exceeding 10% over the next three quarters. That puts the 1-year forward P-E ratio at only about 18 and makes another jump in stock prices wholly possible, especially if the Senate and House can agree on a tax bill with a significant cut in corporate rates.
Importantly, inflation remains in check. Federal Reserve Chairman designate Powell is expected to continue Chairman Yellen’s policy of slowly raising interest rates and shrinking the Fed balance.
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