Goldman Is Troubled By The Fed’s Growing Warnings About High Asset Prices

With both the S&P, and global stock markets, closing last week at new all time highs, it is safe to say that any and all warnings about “froth”, and perhaps a bubble in the market, as all warnings about “froth have been ignored. And yet, as Goldman’s economist team writes over the weekend, the recent rise in warnings about “risk levels” and asset prices by Fed officials is concerning: 

“Fed officials have expressed greater concern about asset prices and financial stability risk recently, a change from their more relaxed view last fall. In particular, the minutes to the June FOMC meeting highlighted concern about high equity valuations and low volatility and drew a connection between potential overheating in the real economy and financial markets.”

To underscore this point, here is a recap of recent Fed warnings about asset prices, which have increased significantly since the presidential election:

Janet Yellen, July 12, 2017

So in looking at asset prices and valuations, we try not to opine on whether they are correct or not correct. But as you asked what the potential spillovers or impacts on financial stability could be of asset price revaluations — my assessment of that is that as assets prices have moved up, we have not seen a substantial increase in borrowing based on those asset price movements. We have a financial system and banking system that is well capitalized and strong and I believe it is resilient.

FOMC Minutes, July 5, 2017

…in the assessment of a few participants equity prices were high when judged against standard valuation measures…Some participants suggested that increased risk tolerance among investors might be 
contributing to elevated asset prices more broadly; a few participants expressed concern that subdued market volatility, coupled with a low equity premium, could lead to a buildup of risks to financial stability… Several participants expressed concern that a substantial and sustained unemployment undershooting might make the economy more likely to experience financial instability or could lead to a sharp rise in inflation that would require a rapid policy tightening that, in turn, could raise the risk of an economic downturn.