Finance 0

May Jobs Report: Nothing More Nor Less Than A Decent Late Cycle Report

By Kurt Osterberg · On June 3, 2017

HEADLINES:

+138,000 jobs added

U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% from 4.4% to 4.3%

U6 underemployment rate down -0.2% from 8.6% to 8.4%

Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment:

Wages and participation rates

Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: down -146,000 from 5.707 million to 5.561 million

Part time for economic reasons: down -53,000 from 5.272 million to 5.219 million

Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: down -0.2% from 78.6% to 78.4%

Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: up $.03 from $21.97 to $22.00,up +2.5% YoY.(Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)

Holding Trump accountable on manufacturing and mining jobs

Trump specifically campaigned on bringing back manufacturing and mining jobs. Is he keeping this promise?

Manufacturing jobs fell by -1,000 for an average of +2500 vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of 10,300 manufacturing jobs were added each month.

Coal mining jobs rose by +400 for an average of +300 vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of -300 jobs were lost each month

March was revised downward by -29,000. April was also revised downward by -37,000, for a net change of -66,000.

The more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were mixed but on balance positive.

the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours.This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.

construction jobs increased by +11,000. YoY construction jobs are up +191,000.

temporary jobs increased by +12,900.

the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less decreased by -181,000 from 2,335,000 to 2,154,000.The post-recession low was set 18 months ago at 2,095,000.