Bitcoin & Big-Tech Battered, Bonds & Black Gold Bid As Rate-Cut Expectations Soar

Image Source: PixabayA quiet macro day ahead of the coming storm with just soft-survey data hitting. But having said that US Empire Fed Manufacturing exploded higher (smashing expectations by six standard deviations in September, +11.5 vs -4.0 exp, vs -4.7 prior)…Source: BloombergHowever, it was the WSJ’s Greg Ip that prompted some chaos in markets with his weekend piece pitching 50bps cut this week. The market is now pricing in around 70% odds of a 50bps cut this week…Source: BloombergWe do noted that 2025 rate-cut expectations are drifting lower as 2024 dovishly increases…Source: BloombergInterestingly, before we dive into the details of market moves today, we note that, ahead of the rate-cut(s), usage of The Fed’s Reverse Repo facility plummeted to $239BN today – its lowest since May 2021 – as liquidity continues to bleed from the system (note that we have seen this purge and surge…Source: BloombergGoldman Sachs trading desk noted today was a fairly quiet start to “rate cut week” after “inflation week” turned in the best weekly performance for SPX all year, which reversed the worst weekly performance of the year from “jobs week” just two weeks ago.

On the day, Nasdaq was the sole stock index lower (down over 1% at its worst) with The Dow and Small Caps outperforming (S&P oscillated around unch). After Europe closed (following the very choppy US open), US equities drifted higher…Nasdaq bounced higher off its 50DMA…After five straight days of gains, the Mag7 stocks tumbled today (losing around $170BN in market cap) with AAPL and NVDA dominating the downside while META rallied…Source: BloombergVIX jumped back above 17 today…Treasury yields were lower on the day with the long-end outperforming…Source: BloombergThe 10Y yield closed at its lowest since June 2023…Source: BloombergThe dollar drifted modestly lower today (4th day in a row), back below the Jackson Hole lows…Source: BloombergGold made small gains today, consolidating at record highs…Source: BloombergSilver has been outperforming gold for the last few days and is back at two month highs relative to gold today…Source: BloombergWe encourage readers to use our exclusive partners JM Bullion for all your precious metals purchasing needs.The weakness in big-tech carried over into crypto with bitcoin clubbed like a baby seal back to a $57,000 handle, erasing all of Friday’s surge…Source: BloombergOil prices continued their rebound, with WTI back above $70 once again…Source: BloombergFinally, stocks and bonds remain decoupled (the latter thinking ‘recession’ and the former focused on ‘rate cuts to save the world’)…Source: BloombergThe reflexive dichotomy of those two arguments may well come unglued after Powell makes his decision this week – 25bps or 50bps!?More By This Author:Money-Market Fund Assets Hit Another New Record High As Domestic Bank Depos Surge To Pre-SVB Levels
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